Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Picks & Odds | 01 May 2025

Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 25-13-3 Away) clash with Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 27-11-3 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round matchup at Canadian Tire Centre. The Leafs led the series 3-2.

There is merit in backing the Maple Leafs on the Moneyline considering our betting prediction is that they will beat the Senators. Especially as -102 is available about this happening.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators faced off two nights ago, with the Sens claiming a 4-0 win at Scotiabank Arena.

The Sens had 25 shots on goal and there were four different goalscorers including Tim Stutzle. Linus Ullmark got a shutout making 29 saves. The Leafs won the shots on goal battle, 29-19.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Sens have won seven of the past 10 games that these teams have played.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	6-5-1	3.5	.884	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-7-4	3	.877	0
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.2 goals from 26.6 shots on goal, with a 13.6% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have been giving up 2.1 goals from 25.9 shots, averaging 4.3 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 83.7%.

Mitchell Marner is the top points scorer with 15 points, 4 goals and 11 assists, with Auston Matthews recording 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists, over the last 10 games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.79 goal against average with a .924 save percentage, including two shutouts.

The Sens have 5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 28.4 shots on goal, with a 18.9% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 3.4 goals from 26.6 shots, averaging 4.6 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.6%.

The top points scorer is Tim Stutzle with 12 points, 5 goals and 7 assists, while Drake Batherson is next best after registering 9 points, 5 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.00 GAA with a .880 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs should be able to outscore the home team and our pick is to side with them on the Moneyline. There is a generous -102 available for the visitors to win this NHL clash.

The NHL predictions are only made once we have established the latest team news. It’s also important to study the form and investigate the most relevant player and goalie stats to get the full picture.

Key Maple Leafs vs Senators stats:

• Maple Leafs have won 8 of their last 10 games.
• Maple Leafs have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Senators have lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Leafs Moneyline Probability

According to the sportsbooks, there’s a 50.5% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

There are some value betting options beyond simply backing Toronto to win, with Puck Line, Winning Margin and 3-Way Moneyline viable alternatives to get more juice.

Our Game Prediction

Maple Leafs Moneyline @ -102 Bet Now

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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots -125

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs) has had Over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight games on the road. Out of all the prop bets available, we’re going to take the -125 when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager.

Latest Bobby McMann Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+410

First

+1800

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-125

Under 1.5

-103

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Senators

We’re taking a correct score bet which involves the Maple Leafs to win 5-3. The odds of +2800 make plenty of appeal and you should hopefully get some entertainment with this wager.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Senators

1-0

Maple Leafs

+4000

Senators

+4000

2-0

Maple Leafs

+4000

Senators

+3500

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1150

Senators

+1150

3-0

Maple Leafs

+2800

Senators

+2500

3-1

Maple Leafs

+1600

Senators

+1600

3-2

Maple Leafs

+800

Senators

+800

4-0

Maple Leafs

+3500

Senators

+3500

4-1

Maple Leafs

+1500

Senators

+1400

4-2

Maple Leafs

+1600

Senators

+1500

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1150

Senators

+1100

5-0

Maple Leafs

+7500

Senators

+6600

5-1

Maple Leafs

+2800

Senators

+2400

5-2

Maple Leafs

+1900

Senators

+1800

5-3

Maple Leafs

+2800

Senators

+2500

5-4

Maple Leafs

+2500

Senators

+2500

6-0

Maple Leafs

+11000

Senators

+10000

6-1

Maple Leafs

+7000

Senators

+6000

6-2

Maple Leafs

+4000

Senators

+3500

6-3

Maple Leafs

+4000

Senators

+3500

6-4

Maple Leafs

+6000

Senators

+6000

6-5

Maple Leafs

+6600

Senators

+6600

7-1

Maple Leafs

+12000

Senators

+10000

7-2

Maple Leafs

+10000

Senators

+9000

7-3

Maple Leafs

+7500

Senators

+7000

7-4

Maple Leafs

+9000

Senators

+8000

7-5

Maple Leafs

+14000

Senators

+13000

8-4

Maple Leafs

+14000

Senators

+14000

View More

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Ottawa Senators are available at Moneyline odds of -115, while opponents Toronto Maple Leafs can be backed at -104. From a percentage point-of-view, the leading sportsbooks give the visiting team a 51% chance of success.

There is a puck line of 1.5 and total goals has a line of 5.5. NHL fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Totals wager. If you want to back Over 5.5, it’s +110.

You can find a huge selection of game lines and team props for every National Hockey League encounter, with the betting sites creating many different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

-104

Senators

-115

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+155

Tie

+310

Senators

+138

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-278

Senators -1.5

+220

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-133

Over 5.5

+110

Those interested in Auston Matthews to light the lamp at anytime are able to get +130. There is the chance to back the favorite to score the first goal at odds of +750.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+130

Anytime

+750

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

First

+170

Anytime

+900

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+195

Anytime

+1000

Drake Batherson (Senators)

First

+205

Anytime

+1050

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+220

Anytime

+1150

Tim Stützle (Senators)

First

+225

Anytime

+1150

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+235

Anytime

+1200

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+260

Anytime

+1300

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

First

+265

Anytime

+1300

Claude Giroux (Senators)

First

+320

Anytime

+1500

Ridly Greig (Senators)

First

+360

Anytime

+1700

Shane Pinto (Senators)

First

+360

Anytime

+1700

David Perron (Senators)

First

+390

Anytime

+1800

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+410

Anytime

+1800

Adam Gaudette (Senators)

First

+425

Anytime

+1900

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

First

+425

Anytime

+1900

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+440

Anytime

+2000

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

First

+460

Anytime

+2000

Max Pacioretty (Maple Leafs)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Michael Amadio (Senators)

First

+510

Anytime

+2200

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+525

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-125

Under 3.5

-103

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 3.5

-149

Under 3.5

+115

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-135

Under 2.5

+105

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-169

Drake Batherson (Senators)

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

Claude Giroux (Senators)

Over 1.5

-105

Under 1.5

-123

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-125

Under 1.5

-103

It’s possible to use stats to your advantage when it comes to NHL micro betting, especially if you’re predicting outcomes such as the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Check out the live team and player props and see if you can find an angle.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Ottawa Senators Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.20 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 9.2
• Blocks: 14.5
• Faceoff Wins : 31
• Hits: 25.5
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13
• Faceoff Wins : 30.6
• Hits: 24
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.4

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 28.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 4.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 10.5
• Blocks: 18.8
• Faceoff Wins : 27.5
• Hits: 33.5
• Giveaways: 13
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 27.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 7.9
• Blocks: 16.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29
• Hits: 29
• Giveaways: 13.5
• Takeaways: 5

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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