Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Picks & Odds | 09 Apr 2025

We’re heading to the 3-Way Moneyline and our betting prediction is for the Lightning to win in regulation time. The home team have a strong chance of beating the Maple Leafs and the +107 makes plenty of appeal.

Toronto Maple Leafs suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 3-1 scoreline occurred on the road at Amerant Bank Arena against Florida Panthers. Joseph Woll made 34 saves (.944), with John Tavares being the only player to score.

Tampa Bay Lightning have now achieved four straight home wins. In their last game, they won on the road at Madison Square Garden when beating New York Rangers 5-1. Brayden Point scored two goals, with Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel and Yanni Gourde also scoring. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy played a starring role, stopping 38 shots (.974).

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw the Leafs claim a 5-3 win over the Lightning at Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs have enjoyed three consecutive victories against the Lightning. They’ve landed 7 wins from the past 10 head-to-head meetings.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	10-10-3	3.3	.892	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	36-13-4	2.3	.910	2
23/24	30-20-2	2.9	.900	2

7 wins, 2 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals from 26.5 shots on goal, with a 20.7% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have given up 2.4 goals from 31.7 shots, averaging 3.2 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.4%.

John Tavares is the top points scorer with 15 points, 10 goals and 5 assists, with Mitchell Marner racking up 12 points, 3 goals and 9 assists, over the past 10 games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.60 goal against average with a .944 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Lightning have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.9 goals from 27.8 shots on goal, with a 18.9% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.2 goals from 28.2 shots, averaging 3.3 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 81.8%.

The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 20 points, 5 goals and 15 assists, while Brayden Point is next in line after having 13 points, 9 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 1.43 GAA with a .944 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

The road team look opposable on the 60-minute line, so we’re going to make Tampa Bay Lightning our pick for this NHL encounter. You can currently get +107 for this selection which looks value.

Team news plays a valuable role and we’re always monitoring the players who have an injury concern. We’ve also got a handle on the form guide, with plenty of data provided which puts you in the picture in terms of team, player and goalie stats.

Key Maple Leafs vs Lightning stats:

• Lightning have won 9 of their last 10 games at home.
• Lightning have won 16 of their last 20 games at home.
• Lightning have won 4 consecutive games at home.
• Maple Leafs have lost 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability

According to the latest odds, our pick has a 48.3% chance of winning. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

There’s often a case for placing a same game parlay which includes a 3-Way Moneyline pick among others. A Bet Builder is a great way of getting more juice from your wager.

Our Game Prediction

Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ +107 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Apr 8, 23:43). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikita Kucherov To Score +132

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning) has scored in 4 straight games at home. When it comes to him scoring, we think that the +132 available is attractive when it comes to betting on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Nikita Kucherov Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+128

First

+750

Shots on Goal

Over 3.5

+125

Under 3.5

-164

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Lightning

There are betting odds of +2500 that the Lightning land a 6-3 victory. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Lightning

1-0

Maple Leafs

+5500

Lightning

+4500

2-0

Maple Leafs

+5500

Lightning

+4000

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1600

Lightning

+1200

3-0

Maple Leafs

+4500

Lightning

+2400

3-1

Maple Leafs

+2400

Lightning

+1500

3-2

Maple Leafs

+1000

Lightning

+750

4-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+2800

4-1

Maple Leafs

+2400

Lightning

+1150

4-2

Maple Leafs

+2000

Lightning

+1300

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1200

Lightning

+950

5-0

Maple Leafs

+12000

Lightning

+4500

5-1

Maple Leafs

+4500

Lightning

+1700

5-2

Maple Leafs

+2500

Lightning

+1300

5-3

Maple Leafs

+3000

Lightning

+2000

5-4

Maple Leafs

+2400

Lightning

+2000

6-0

Maple Leafs

+14000

Lightning

+7000

6-1

Maple Leafs

+10000

Lightning

+4000

6-2

Maple Leafs

+5500

Lightning

+2400

6-3

Maple Leafs

+4500

Lightning

+2500

6-4

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+4500

6-5

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+5000

7-0

Maple Leafs

+6000

Lightning

+11000

7-1

Maple Leafs

+14000

Lightning

+6600

7-2

Maple Leafs

+14000

Lightning

+5500

7-3

Maple Leafs

+9000

Lightning

+4500

7-4

Maple Leafs

+9000

Lightning

+6000

7-5

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+10000

7-6

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+12000

8-1

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+11000

8-2

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+10000

8-3

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+11000

8-4

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+10000

8-5

Maple Leafs

+13000

Lightning

+14000

View More

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Tampa Bay Lightning as -182 favorites for this game, implying that they are 65% likely to win. The market suggests that Toronto Maple Leafs are least likely to win at +150.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 5.5. NHL bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on Totals. If you fancy Over 5.5, this outcome can be backed at -141.

The Lightning have been made favorites to score the opening goal, with odds of -145 available. There’s the alternative of backing the Leafs to find the net first at +105.

National Hockey League fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the huge selection of team props and game lines which are available for every clash on the coupon. Head to the betting sites and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+150

Lightning

-182

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+265

Tie

+335

Lightning

-122

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-164

Lightning -1.5

+134

Total Goals

Under 5.5

+114

Over 5.5

-141

The First Goalscorer favorite is Auston Matthews at +750. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the last goal.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+123

Anytime

+750

Brayden Point (Lightning)

First

+128

Anytime

+750

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

First

+128

Anytime

+750

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

First

+160

Anytime

+900

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

First

+175

Anytime

+1000

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+185

Anytime

+1050

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+210

Anytime

+1150

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+250

Anytime

+1300

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+265

Anytime

+1400

Oliver Björkstrand (Lightning)

First

+285

Anytime

+1400

Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)

First

+285

Anytime

+1400

Nick Paul (Lightning)

First

+310

Anytime

+1500

Yanni Gourde (Lightning)

First

+360

Anytime

+1700

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

Mitchell Chaffee (Lightning)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Gage Goncalves (Lightning)

First

+475

Anytime

+2200

Conor Sheary (Lightning)

First

+475

Anytime

+2200

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Scott Laughton (Maple Leafs)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Pontus Holmberg (Maple Leafs)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-119

Under 3.5

-109

Nikita Kucherov (Lightning)

Over 3.5

+125

Under 3.5

-164

Brayden Point (Lightning)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Jake Guentzel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-105

Brandon Hagel (Lightning)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

+110

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+110

Under 2.5

-143

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+160

Under 2.5

-213

There are lots of exciting NHL micro betting lines that are created and they are available in-game. Among them are next goalscorer, next team to find the net and whether a goal will be scored within the next 10 minutes.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Tampa Bay Lightning Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.00 goals and allowed 3.90 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.30 pts and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 2.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 4.50 goals and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.5
• Shots: 29.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 4.5
• Blocks: 13.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29.7
• Hits: 21.1
• Giveaways: 15.8
• Takeaways: 5

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 28.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 2.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 5.5
• Blocks: 9.1
• Faceoff Wins : 20.6
• Hits: 17.6
• Giveaways: 17.6
• Takeaways: 5.1

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 31.8
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.8
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 16.4
• Blocks: 12.2
• Faceoff Wins : 28.3
• Hits: 20.4
• Giveaways: 16.7
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 29
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 5.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.4
• Penalty Minutes: 18.6
• Blocks: 13.2
• Faceoff Wins : 26.9
• Hits: 19.8
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 3.9

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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