Miami vs Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 04 Oct 2025
College Football Betting Preview: Miami vs Florida State
Miami square off against Florida State in this NCAAF Week 6 matchup at Doak Campbell Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:30 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
Points the Play in Miami at FSU
We’re expecting Over 53.5 points to be scored by Florida State and Miami combined. There’s an attractive -115 for our prediction and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over.
Going with our Totals selection? Make sure you’ve locked in the latest BetMGM promo code and checked out our full review before placing your wager.
36-14 Victory for Miami in Pair’s Previous H2H
Miami Hurricanes made it four consecutive wins after a 26-7 home success over Florida Gators at Hard Rock Stadium.
Florida State Seminoles have enjoyed three straight home wins. In their last game, they lost on the road to Virginia Cavaliers 46-38 (OT) at Scott Stadium.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The last head-to-head saw Miami claim a 36-14 win over Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium. The H2H over the past 6 games have seen three wins for both teams.
Quarterbacks
Carson Beck
Tommy Castellanos
Miami vs Florida State Prediction & Picks
We dive into the best Miami vs Florida State betting angles, including an expert match prediction, correct score forecast, top player prop bets and a value-focused bet builder.
Game Prediction
You can get -115 that there are Over 53.5 points and there’s plenty of juice in those odds. The two teams should be able to keep the score ticking for our college football pick to win.
Our CFB predictions are built after tracking the latest team news and reviewing recent form. We also dive into stats, which often serve as a solid barometer for how the action might unfold.
Key Miami vs Florida State stats:
Over 53.5 Probability
If you go by the top betting apps, there’s a 53.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. It's therefore regarded as a value wager.
Want more juice from your Over wager on the Totals? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier bet. You can choose from a range of options.
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Best Bet
Over 53.5 Points @ -115
Player Prop Picks
You can back Tommy Castellanos (Florida State) at -114 to reach over 176.5 passing yards. We can back him in the QB Passing Yards market and hope the Over hits.
You can back CJ Daniels (Florida State) at -114 to exceed 46.5 receiving yards. We're confident in him covering the Player Receiving Yards line and hitting our Over bet.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Get in the game with a same game parlay. Our picks are Over 53.5 on the total, Florida State to cover the +4.5 spread and Tommy Castellanos (Florida State) to go Over 176.5 passing yards.
The same game parlay option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored football bet on the event which interests them most.
Correct Score Prediction
31
-
28
Florida State
We’re expecting a close battle so it might be worth going for Miami to triumph by a 31-28 scoreline. You can get a massive price and we should hopefully get a run for our money.
Miami vs Florida State Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.
Books Giving Miami Plenty of Respect
For this college game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Miami are -179 favorites to win and that means a 64% chance of landing a victory. At +152, Florida State are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.
The current spread is 4.5 and the total points line is 53.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you fancy Over 53.5, this outcome can be backed at -115.
Whether you are betting pre-game or in-game on college football, the best sportsbooks let you feast on a wide range of game lines and team props. The selections are practically endless, and it’s fantastic to have so many options.
Mark Fletcher Jr. Favorite to Score First Touchdown
There is -169 available that Mark Fletcher Jr. scores a TD at any stage. He is available at +470 to register the first touchdown which makes him favorite.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
Florida State Rolling at Home
Florida State have rattled off three straight wins at Doak Campbell Stadium. They have five wins and five losses in the last 10 games at home, posting 28.90 points per matchup while yielding 18.90.
Miami have gone 5-5 across their last 10 games games on the road, scoring 34.50 points per contest and conceding 29.30.
The last time the teams met at Doak Campbell Stadium, Florida State defeated Miami 27-20. In the last 3 head-to-head games at Doak Campbell Stadium, Florida State have won two, while Miami have one victory.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O53.5 | U53.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida State Home Stats |
5-5 | 47.80 | 28.90 | 18.90 | 2 | 8 | |
 Miami Away Stats |
5-5 | 63.80 | 34.50 | 29.30 | 7 | 3 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O53.5 = Games Over 53.5 Points
- U53.5 = Games Under 53.5 Points
Last 5 & H2H
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Miami Stats
Florida State Seminoles Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road
- +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
- +4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 59.70 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 63.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 53.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 53.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 38.00 pts and allowed 21.70 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 34.50 pts and allowed 29.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 56.80 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 47.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 53.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 53.5 at Home: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.80 pts and allowed 26.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 28.90 pts and allowed 18.90 pts in the last 10 home games
NCAAF Standings Select Season
| Atlantic Coast | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia Tech
|
5 | 0 | 185 | 106 | 79 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 5W |
Louisville
|
4 | 0 | 153 | 75 | 78 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 4W |
|
Miami
|
4 | 0 | 147 | 46 | 101 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 4W |
California
|
4 | 1 | 124 | 90 | 34 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 1W |
Virginia
|
4 | 1 | 228 | 116 | 112 | 4-0 | 0-1 | 3W |
|
Florida State
|
3 | 1 | 212 | 76 | 136 | 3-0 | 0-1 | 1L |
Syracuse
|
3 | 2 | 156 | 148 | 8 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1L |
NC State
|
3 | 2 | 147 | 140 | 7 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2L |
Duke
|
3 | 2 | 174 | 132 | 42 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2W |
North Carolina
|
2 | 2 | 84 | 91 | -7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1L |
Pittsburgh
|
2 | 2 | 157 | 91 | 66 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 2L |
SMU
|
2 | 2 | 139 | 106 | 33 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1L |
Wake Forest
|
2 | 2 | 105 | 83 | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2L |
Stanford
|
2 | 3 | 103 | 147 | -44 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 1W |
Virginia Tech
|
2 | 3 | 118 | 140 | -22 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2W |
Boston College
|
1 | 3 | 150 | 110 | 40 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 3L |
Clemson
|
1 | 3 | 79 | 91 | -12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2L |
Charlotte
South Florida
Betting Tips
22:00 - Fri 03 Oct
NCAAF
New Mexico
San Jose State
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22:30 - Fri 03 Oct
NCAAF
West Virginia
BYU
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22:30 - Fri 03 Oct
NCAAF
Colorado State
San Diego State
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
NCAAF
Wisconsin
Michigan
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
NCAAF
Kentucky
Georgia
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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Army
UAB
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Boston College
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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Illinois
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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Kansas State
Baylor
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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Iowa State
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12:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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Ohio
Ball State
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13:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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UTSA
Temple
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13:00 - Sat 04 Oct
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Wake Forest
Virginia Tech
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Shonan Bellmare
Tokyo Verdy
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Chemnitz
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10:30 - Fri 03 Oct
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Nurnberg
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