Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Prediction, Picks & Odds | 30 Aug 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Mississippi State vs Southern Miss

Mississippi State meet Southern Miss in this NCAAF matchup at M.M. Roberts Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

We Think Under 60.5 is the Value Bet

Let’s shoot for a total wager between Southern Miss and Mississippi State, with Under 60.5 available at -105. This betting prediction has plenty of juice in the price.

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Mississippi State Claimed 41-20 Victory in Last H2H

Mississippi State Bulldogs suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 26-14 scoreline occurred on the road at Solider Field against Ole Miss.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles were beaten last game and this was on the road at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Troy State Trojans claimed a 52-20 win.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last head-to-head saw Mississippi State claim a 41-20 win over Southern Miss at Davis Wade Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Blake Shapen

265.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Braylon Braxton

205.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Prediction & Picks

From our main match prediction to correct score advice, must-watch player props and a custom bet builder — this Mississippi State vs Southern Miss betting preview covers it all.

Game Prediction

We’re not sure that the two teams will collectively reach a certain points threshold. Our pick is to take the -105 that there are Under 60.5 points in this college football matchup.

We put solid research behind every CFB pick, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.

Key Mississippi State vs Southern Miss stats:

• The 60.5 line hasn’t been covered in 16 of the last 20 Mississippi State games on the road.
• The 60.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Mississippi State games on the road.
• The 60.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 3 Mississippi State games.
• The 60.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Southern Miss games at home.
• The 60.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Southern Miss games at home.
• The 60.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Southern Miss games at home.

Under 60.5 Probability

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 51.3% chance of winning. Our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. That means we are regarding it as a value wager.

If you want bigger odds for your Under wager, then there’s a way of changing the line and shooting for a lower points total in the hope of a better payout.

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Best Bet

Under 60.5 Points @ -105 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Blake Shapen Under 265.5 Passing Yards -114

You can back Blake Shapen (Mississippi State) at -114 to finish with fewer than 265.5 passing yards. He could struggle to reach the QB Passing Yards line, making this prop bet highly appealing.

Latest Blake Shapen Player Prop Odds

Passing Yards

Over 265.5

-114

Under 265.5

-114

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Seydou Traore Under 36.5 Receiving Yards -114

You can place a bet on Seydou Traore (Southern Miss) at -114 to finish with fewer than 36.5 receiving yards. If you agree with our verdict that the line is too high, this Player Receiving Yards wager is worth backing.

Latest Seydou Traore Player Prop Odds

Receiving Yards

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Mississippi State 34 - 17 Southern Miss

There are stacks of correct score lines available and we’re looking at Mississippi State to achieve a winning scoreline of 34-17 where a massive potential return is on the cards.

Mississippi State vs Southern Miss Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Books Have Mississippi State as Heavy Favorites

You might not get rich backing Mississippi State at -526. However, the sportsbooks’ betting odds imply a 84% chance of winning this college game. Southern Miss are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +390.

13.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 60.5 right now. There are many ways to wager on football including the Totals. If you fancy Under 60.5, then the odds are -105.

Consider every angle when placing your college football wagers. The best betting sites have a huge selection of team props and game lines and it’s all about finding a bet which matches your prediction of the game.

Moneyline

Mississippi State

-526

Southern Miss

+390

Point Spread

Mississippi State -13.5

-110

Southern Miss +13.5

-110

Total Points

Under 60.5

-105

Over 60.5

-115

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Seydou Traore (Mississippi State)

Over 36.5

-114

Under 36.5

-114

Passing Yards

Blake Shapen (Mississippi State)

Over 265.5

-114

Under 265.5

-114

Braylon Braxton (Southern Miss)

Over 205.5

-114

Under 205.5

-114

Southern Miss Home Record Includes Five Straight Defeats

Southern Miss have taken five losses in a row at M.M. Roberts Stadium. They own a 2-8 mark in their past 10 home games, putting up 20.70 points on average and giving up 30.70.

Mississippi State have suffered seven consecutive road defeats. They have two wins and eight losses in the last 10 road games, putting up 17.40 points on average and giving up 29.30.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O60.5	U60.5
Southern Miss Home Stats		2-8	51.40	20.70	30.70	3	7
Mississippi State Away Stats		2-8	46.70	17.40	29.30	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O60.5 = Games Over 60.5 Points
• U60.5 = Games Under 60.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Stats

Moneyline

• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 0 wins and 10 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -13.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
• -13.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have not covered the spread in any of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +13.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
• +13.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 60.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 46.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 60.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 60.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 23.10 pts and allowed 37.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 17.40 pts and allowed 29.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 56.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 51.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 60.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 60.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 14.80 pts and allowed 41.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 20.70 pts and allowed 30.70 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Sun Belt	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
UL Monroe	1	0	29	0	29	1-0	0-0	1W
Appalachian State	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Coastal Carolina	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Georgia Southern	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Georgia State	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
James Madison	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Marshall	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Old Dominion	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Arkansas State	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Louisiana	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
South Alabama	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Southern Miss	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Texas State	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Troy State	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

Southeastern	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Missouri	1	0	61	6	55	1-0	0-0	1W
Alabama	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Arkansas	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Auburn	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Florida	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Georgia	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Kentucky	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
LSU	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Mississippi State	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Oklahoma	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Ole Miss	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
South Carolina	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Tennessee	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Texas A&M	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Texas	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Vanderbilt	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-