New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Oct 2025

College Football Betting Preview: New Mexico State vs Liberty

New Mexico State clash with Liberty in this NCAAF matchup at Williams Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:00 on Tuesday 14 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Liberty Look Set for a Big Win

If you agree with our prediction that Liberty can be superior to New Mexico State, you can get -115 for this selection against the spread. The big favorites should be capable of covering the -10.5 line.

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5 Liberty Wins in Last 6 H2H Matchups

New Mexico State have lost back-to-back on the road. In their previous game, it was a 37-10 home win over Sam Houston Bearkats at Aggie Memorial Stadium.

Liberty Flames got the win in their last game. A 19-8 triumph occurred on the road at Sun Bowl Stadium when meeting UTEP Miners.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 30-24 win for Liberty at Aggie Memorial Stadium when they last played NM State. In the past 6 H2H meetings, Liberty have won five.

Quarterbacks

Logan Fife

223.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Ethan Vasko

209.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction & Picks

Get ahead of the game with our New Mexico State vs Liberty betting rundown, featuring our trusted match prediction, most likely correct score outcome and a fully loaded bet builder.

Game Prediction

There are odds of -115 that Liberty will cover the -10.5 line. We think this is a more than generous spread for this college football pick where there is plenty of value available.

We only publish our CFB predictions once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every pick we make.

Key New Mexico State vs Liberty stats:

• The -10.5 line has been covered by Liberty in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -10.5 line has been covered by Liberty in 11 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +10.5 line hasn’t been covered by New Mexico State in 9 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +10.5 line hasn’t been covered by New Mexico State in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +10.5 line hasn’t been covered by New Mexico State in 2 consecutive games on the road.

Liberty -10.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 53.5% likelihood of this pick winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. This college wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

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Best Bet

Liberty -10.5 @ -115 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

NM State 10 - 30 Liberty

Should you want a wager that can land a big return, then look no further than the correct score lines. Bet on the Flames to win 30-10 and leverage a massive payout if this happens.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Liberty Big Favorites on the Moneyline

You might not get rich backing Liberty at -455. However, the sportsbooks’ betting odds imply a 82% chance of winning this college game. The market suggests that New Mexico State are least likely to win at +360.

The current spread is 10.5 and the total points line is 46.5. Football bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you fancy Under 46.5, then the odds are -110.

The best betting apps provide tons of game lines and team props for nearly every college football matchup. Take a few moments to browse all the markets so you can place a bet that matches your insight.

Moneyline

NM State

+360

Liberty

-455

Point Spread

NM State +10.5

-105

Liberty -10.5

-115

Total Points

Under 46.5

-110

Over 46.5

-110

Player Odds

Receiving Yards

Donovan Faupel (NM State)

Over 48.5

-114

Under 48.5

-114

PJ Johnson III (NM State)

Over 40.5

-114

Under 40.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Evan Dickens (Liberty)

Over 62.5

-114

Under 62.5

-114

Passing Yards

Logan Fife (NM State)

Over 223.5

-114

Under 223.5

-114

Ethan Vasko (Liberty)

Over 209.5

-114

Under 209.5

-114

Liberty Own Eight Wins From Last Ten at Home

Liberty are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, putting up 33.30 points per contest and giving up 23.20.

NM State own a 1-9 mark in their past 10 games on the road, putting up 15.50 points on average and giving up 39.90.

Liberty earned a 49-35 win over NM State the last time they played at Williams Stadium. Across the past 4 head-to-head meetings at Williams Stadium, Liberty have recorded three wins, with NM State winning once.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O46.5	U46.5
Liberty Home Stats		8-2	56.50	33.30	23.20	7	3
New Mexico State Away Stats		1-9	55.40	15.50	39.90	8	2

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O46.5 = Games Over 46.5 Points
• U46.5 = Games Under 46.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

New Mexico State Stats

Liberty Flames Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +10.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -10.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 51.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 55.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 46.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.60 pts and allowed 29.00 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 15.50 pts and allowed 39.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 42.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 52.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 46.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 46.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.20 pts and allowed 22.50 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 29.10 pts and allowed 23.30 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Conference USA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Western Kentucky	5	1	202	137	65	3-0	2-1	3W
Kennesaw State	4	2	132	123	9	4-0	0-2	4W
Louisiana Tech	4	2	147	103	44	3-0	1-2	1L
Delaware Blue Hens	3	2	148	132	16	2-1	1-1	1L
New Mexico State	3	2	111	114	-3	3-0	0-2	1W
Jacksonville State	3	3	177	161	16	2-0	1-3	1W
Missouri State	3	3	130	178	-48	1-2	2-1	1W
FIU	2	3	106	160	-54	2-1	0-2	2L
Liberty	2	4	104	124	-20	1-1	1-3	1W
M. Tennessee	1	5	102	177	-75	0-3	1-2	3L
UTEP	1	5	112	152	-40	1-3	0-2	4L
Sam Houston	0	6	102	237	-135	0-2	0-4	6L