New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Oct 2025
College Football Betting Preview: New Mexico State vs Liberty
New Mexico State clash with Liberty in this NCAAF Week 8 matchup at Williams Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 19:00 on Tuesday, October 14. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
If you agree with our prediction that Liberty can be superior to New Mexico State, you can get -115 for this selection against the spread. The big favorites should be capable of covering the -10.5 line.
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New Mexico State have lost back-to-back on the road. In their previous game, it was a 37-10 home win over Sam Houston Bearkats at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Liberty Flames got the win in their last game. A 19-8 triumph occurred on the road at Sun Bowl Stadium when meeting UTEP Miners.
Head-to-Head Statistics
It was a 30-24 win for Liberty at Aggie Memorial Stadium when they last played NM State. In the past 6 H2H meetings, Liberty have won five.
Quarterbacks
Logan Fife
Ethan Vasko
New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction & Picks
Our New Mexico State vs Liberty betting preview covers everything you need, including a key match prediction, correct score insight, top player prop bets and a value-packed bet builder recommendation.
Game Prediction
There are odds of -115 that Liberty will cover the -10.5 line. We think this is a more than generous spread for this college football pick where there is plenty of value available.
We only publish our CFB predictions once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every pick we make.
Key New Mexico State vs Liberty stats:
Liberty -10.5 Probability
The top sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 53.5% likelihood of this pick winning. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. This college wager can therefore be backed with confidence.
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Player Prop Picks
The odds for Ethan Vasko (Liberty) to exceed 209.5 passing yards are -114. The line for him on the Overs looks attractive and bettors can get plenty of juice from this QB Passing Yards wager.
The odds for Evan Dickens (Liberty) to surpass 62.5 rushing yards stand at -114. With confidence, we can back him to cover the generous Player Rushing Yards line, as all the signs point to him reaching the expected total.
Same Game Parlay Picks
We’ve loaded up a same game parlay with the combined picks of Liberty -10.5, Under 46.5 and Ethan Vasko (Liberty) to have Over 209.5 passing yards.
A football same game parlay is a single event wager where you make predictions that are going to happen in a particular game. Should a bettor get these picks correct, then they can achieve a big return from a small stake.
Correct Score Prediction
10
-
30
Liberty
Should you want a wager that can land a big return, then look no further than the correct score lines. Bet on the Flames to win 30-10 and leverage a massive payout if this happens.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.
You might not get rich backing Liberty at -400. However, the sportsbooks’ betting odds imply a 80% chance of winning this college game. The market suggests that New Mexico State are least likely to win at +315.
The current spread is 10.5 and the total points line is 47.5. Football bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on the Totals. If you fancy Under 47.5, then the odds are -105.
The best betting apps provide tons of game lines and team props for nearly every college football matchup. Take a few moments to browse all the markets so you can place a bet that matches your insight.
The First Touchdown Scorer favorite is Evan Dickens at +490. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the final TD.
Touchdown
Receiving Yards
Rushing Yards
Passing Yards
Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with college football fans essentially being able to wager in-game when it comes to score, player and team props. Sometimes these are two-way lines where you can bet on the Next Play or Next Drive.
Liberty Own Eight Wins From Last Ten at Home
Liberty are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, putting up 33.30 points per contest and giving up 23.20.
NM State own a 1-9 mark in their past 10 games on the road, putting up 15.50 points on average and giving up 39.90.
Liberty earned a 49-35 win over NM State the last time they played at Williams Stadium. Across the past 4 head-to-head meetings at Williams Stadium, Liberty have recorded three wins, with NM State winning once.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O46.5 | U46.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty Home Stats |
8-2 | 56.50 | 33.30 | 23.20 | 7 | 3 | |
 New Mexico State Away Stats |
1-9 | 55.40 | 15.50 | 39.90 | 8 | 2 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O46.5 = Games Over 46.5 Points
- U46.5 = Games Under 46.5 Points
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
New Mexico State Stats
Liberty Flames Stats
- 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
- 1 win and 9 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- +10.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games on the road
- -10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
- -10.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 51.60 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 55.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 46.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
- Over 46.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 22.60 pts and allowed 29.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 15.50 pts and allowed 39.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 42.70 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 52.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 46.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
- Over 46.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 20.20 pts and allowed 22.50 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 29.10 pts and allowed 23.30 pts in the last 10 home games
| Conference USA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kennesaw State
|
9 | 3 | 349 | 301 | 48 | 6-0 | 3-3 | 2W |
Jacksonville State
|
8 | 4 | 362 | 321 | 41 | 5-0 | 3-4 | 1W |
Western Kentucky
|
8 | 4 | 357 | 281 | 76 | 5-1 | 3-3 | 2L |
FIU
|
7 | 5 | 351 | 333 | 18 | 4-2 | 3-3 | 4W |
Louisiana Tech
|
7 | 5 | 332 | 256 | 76 | 5-1 | 2-4 | 2W |
Missouri State
|
7 | 5 | 305 | 340 | -35 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 2L |
Delaware Blue Hens
|
6 | 6 | 357 | 390 | -33 | 5-1 | 1-5 | 1W |
|
Liberty
|
4 | 8 | 307 | 318 | -11 | 3-3 | 1-5 | 4L |
|
New Mexico State
|
4 | 8 | 259 | 331 | -72 | 3-3 | 1-5 | 1L |
M. Tennessee
|
3 | 9 | 269 | 371 | -102 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 2W |
Sam Houston
|
2 | 10 | 213 | 454 | -241 | 1-4 | 1-6 | 2L |
UTEP
|
2 | 10 | 280 | 365 | -85 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 5L |
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