Toledo vs Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Odds | 30 Aug 2025
College Football Betting Preview: Toledo vs Kentucky
Toledo square off against Kentucky in this NCAAF Week 1 matchup at Kroger Field, with kickoff scheduled for 12:45 on Saturday 30 August. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.
Are Toledo +10.5 a Value Bet?
Toledo can avoid a big loss against Kentucky, with bettors able to back them against the spread. The underdogs should be able to cover +10.5 which have been made available at -118.
Feeling good about our ATS pick? Get the full lowdown in our expert BetMGM review, then snag the exclusive promo code as you prep your next move.
Teams’ Last Matchup Saw 38-24 Kentucky Win
Toledo Rockets won their last game, edging the Pittsburgh Panthers 48–46 in the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field.
In their most recent outing, the Kentucky Wildcats were beaten 41–14 by the Louisville Cardinals in the Governor’s Cup rivalry at Kroger Field.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Kentucky won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 38-24 victory was registered against Toledo at Commonwealth Stadium.
Quarterbacks
Tucker Gleason
Zach Calzada
Toledo vs Kentucky Prediction & Picks
Be ready for Toledo vs Kentucky with our in-depth betting tips, featuring a key match prediction, our expected scoreline, best player prop picks and a value-focused bet builder.
Game Prediction
Toledo look capable of avoiding a heavy defeat in this college football battle and we’re happy to bet them against the spread. The underdogs can comfortably cover +10.5 and this can be backed at -118.
Injuries can influence the outcome and our CFB handicappers factor that in alongside the latest form guide. We apply the same approach to the stats to build the clearest picture of how the matchup might unfold.
Key Toledo vs Kentucky stats:
Toledo +10.5 Probability
According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 54.1% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our analysts have this probability close to 60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.
If you are looking for bigger odds, then you can move the line by selling points. Choose how many to sell until you are happy with the juice available.
Getting ready to place a wager? Check our updated guide for the latest betting offers, including free bets and the newest promos codes.
Best Bet
Toledo +10.5 @ -118
Player Prop Picks
The odds for Zach Calzada (Kentucky) to record fewer than 223.5 passing yards stand at -114. There’s a strong case for choosing him to fall short of the required line in the QB Passing Yards market.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Our same game parlay pick is Toledo +10.5 on the spread, Under 47.5 and Zach Calzada (Kentucky) to have Under 223.5 passing yards.
The same game parlay option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored football bet on the event which interests them most.
Correct Score Prediction
17
-
23
Kentucky
Should you want to go for a selection at massive odds, head to the correct score lines where the Cats can be backed speculatively to achieve a 23-17 victory.
Toledo vs Kentucky Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.
Books Make Kentucky Big Favorites
With a 79% chance of securing victory, Kentucky are favorites for this college game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -370. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +290 about Toledo.
The current spread is 9.5 and the total points line is 48.5. The Totals offers football bettors an alternative way of getting involved. If you fancy Under 48.5, then the odds are -105.
The best betting apps provide tons of game lines and team props for nearly every college football matchup. Take a few moments to browse all the markets so you can place a bet that matches your insight.
Player Odds
Passing Yards
Kentucky Have Seven Defeats Across Their Last Ten Home Outings
Kentucky have gone 3-7 across their last 10 home games, scoring 23.10 points per contest and conceding 22.80.
Toledo are 6-4 in their last 10 games away from home, putting up 23.30 points per contest and giving up 20.90.
The most recent Kroger Field meeting saw Kentucky claim a 38-24 win over Toledo.
| Last 10 Games | W-L | P | PF | PA | O47.5 | U47.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kentucky Home Stats |
3-7 | 45.90 | 23.10 | 22.80 | 4 | 6 | |
 Toledo Away Stats |
6-4 | 44.20 | 23.30 | 20.90 | 4 | 6 | |
- W-L = Wins-Losses
- P = Avg. Points
- PF = Avg. Points For
- PA = Avg. Points Against
- O47.5 = Games Over 47.5 Points
- U47.5 = Games Under 47.5 Points
Last 5 & H2H
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Toledo Rockets Stats
Kentucky Wildcats Stats
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- +10.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games on the road
- -10.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 2 of the last 10 games
- -10.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 49.20 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 44.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 47.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
- Over 47.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 24.00 pts and allowed 25.20 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 23.30 pts and allowed 20.90 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 44.40 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 45.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 47.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
- Over 47.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 21.00 pts and allowed 23.40 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.10 pts and allowed 22.80 pts in the last 10 home games
NCAAF Standings Select Season
| Southeastern | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ole Miss
|
6 | 0 | 227 | 115 | 112 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 6W |
Texas A&M
|
6 | 0 | 208 | 122 | 86 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 6W |
Alabama
|
5 | 1 | 209 | 104 | 105 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 5W |
Georgia
|
5 | 1 | 193 | 102 | 91 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 2W |
LSU
|
5 | 1 | 155 | 71 | 84 | 4-0 | 1-1 | 1W |
Missouri
|
5 | 1 | 250 | 100 | 150 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 1L |
Oklahoma
|
5 | 1 | 175 | 59 | 116 | 4-0 | 1-1 | 1L |
Tennessee
|
5 | 1 | 289 | 176 | 113 | 4-1 | 1-0 | 3W |
Vanderbilt
|
5 | 1 | 259 | 116 | 143 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 1L |
Mississippi State
|
4 | 2 | 202 | 119 | 83 | 3-1 | 1-1 | 2L |
Texas
|
4 | 2 | 171 | 66 | 105 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 1W |
Auburn
|
3 | 3 | 148 | 102 | 46 | 2-1 | 1-2 | 3L |
South Carolina
|
3 | 3 | 134 | 114 | 20 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 1L |
|
Kentucky
|
2 | 3 | 122 | 139 | -17 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2L |
Arkansas
|
2 | 4 | 218 | 184 | 34 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 4L |
Florida
|
2 | 4 | 134 | 119 | 15 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1L |
| Mid-American | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Michigan
|
4 | 3 | 160 | 124 | 36 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 4W |
Bowling Green
|
3 | 3 | 134 | 152 | -18 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 1W |
Buffalo
|
3 | 3 | 151 | 128 | 23 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 1W |
Central Michigan
|
3 | 3 | 131 | 173 | -42 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 1L |
Miami (OH)
|
3 | 3 | 138 | 124 | 14 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3W |
Ohio
|
3 | 3 | 158 | 156 | 2 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 1L |
|
Toledo
|
3 | 3 | 202 | 90 | 112 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 1L |
Ball State
|
2 | 4 | 82 | 189 | -107 | 2-0 | 0-4 | 1L |
Kent State
|
2 | 4 | 115 | 226 | -111 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 1W |
Akron
|
2 | 5 | 117 | 203 | -86 | 2-2 | 0-3 | 1L |
Eastern Michigan
|
2 | 5 | 166 | 224 | -58 | 2-1 | 0-4 | 1W |
Northern Illinois
|
1 | 5 | 65 | 122 | -57 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 5L |
Massachusetts
|
0 | 6 | 58 | 221 | -163 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 6L |
New Mexico State
Liberty
Arkansas State
South Alabama
FIU
Western Kentucky
UTEP
Sam Houston
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Bahcesehir Koleji
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