UCF vs Kansas State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: UCF vs Kansas State

UCF meet Kansas State in this NCAAF Week 5 matchup at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 on Saturday 27 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Points the Play in UCF at K-State

There are odds of -110 about Over 49.5 points and this looks generous when Kansas State face UCF. The bar might have been set too low in terms of total.

Calling this one an over play? Get the latest BetMGM promo code and read our comprehensive site review ahead of making your move.

K-State Landed 44-31 Victory in Previous H2H

UCF Knights beat North Carolina Tar Heels in their previous game, making it three straight victories. It was a 34-9 home win at Acrisure Bounce House.

Kansas State Wildcats have been defeated in back-to-back games. On the road, they recently suffered a 23-17 loss against Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium.

Head-to-Head Statistics

K-State won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 44-31 victory was registered against UCF at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

Quarterbacks

Tayven Jackson

190.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Avery Johnson

227.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

UCF vs Kansas State Prediction & Picks

Our UCF vs Kansas State betting guide delivers expert insight, including a main match pick, scoreline advice, standout player props and bet builder recommendations. Dive into each section below for more.

Game Prediction

The two teams should be able to accumulate enough points for our pick to win. We’re forecasting Over 49.5 and odds of -110 are available for this college football matchup.

Sportsgambler.com brings strong college football expertise, built on knowing the team news as soon as it’s confirmed. Recent form plays a big part in our CFB picks and we always back it up with the most relevant stats.

Key UCF vs Kansas State stats:

• The 49.5 line has been covered in 8 of the last 10 UCF games on the road.
• The 49.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 UCF games on the road.
• The 49.5 line has been covered in the last 3 UCF games on the road.
• The 49.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Kansas State games at home.
• The 49.5 line has been covered in 11 of the last 20 Kansas State games at home.

Over 49.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 52.4% likelihood of our pick landing a return. After careful examination, our cappers have this probability somewhere between 55-60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

There are several ways to increase the odds if you’re wanting to wager on Overs and one of them is betting on the Result & Total lines where you also predict a team to win.

Considering placing a bet? Explore today’s best welcome bonuses and sign-up offers in our full guide before you get started.

Best Bet

Over 49.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Avery Johnson Anytime TD +120

The odds for Avery Johnson (K-State) to score a TD are +120. He looks like a value pick and we think that the odds offer plenty of appeal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.

Latest Avery Johnson Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+120

First

+800

Passing Yards

Over 227.5

-114

Under 227.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

---

Duane Thomas Jr. Over 30.5 Receiving Yards -114

Duane Thomas Jr. (UCF) can be backed at -114 to rack up over 30.5 receiving yards. We can back him in the Player Receiving Yards market and hope the Over hits.

Latest Duane Thomas Jr. Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+260

First

+1700

Receiving Yards

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

UCF 31 - 28 Kansas State

We’ll throw a dart when it comes to UCF landing a 31-28 win. This correct score pick is available at huge odds and could be an entertaining bet to place.

UCF vs Kansas State Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

K-State Could Have the Edge Say the Books

Kansas State are -213 favorites and that means a 68% chance of winning this college game according to the Moneyline betting odds with the sportsbooks. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, UCF are trading at +176.

There is a spread of 5.5 and total points has a line of 49.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you’re wanting to back Over 49.5, the odds are -110.

If you’re betting on college football, we recommend heading to the top betting apps and scanning through the many team props and game lines. There’s a chance to wager pre-game and in-game.

Moneyline

UCF

+176

K-State

-213

Point Spread

UCF +5.5

-106

K-State -5.5

-114

Total Points

Under 49.5

-110

Over 49.5

-110

Myles Montgomery Favorite to Score First TD

Myles Montgomery is priced at +500 when it comes to First TD Scorer. He’s the favorite and also available at odds of -145 to score a touchdown at anytime.

Touchdown

Myles Montgomery (UCF)

First TD

+500

Anytime TD

-145

Jayce Brown (K-State)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-110

Dylan Edwards (K-State)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

-115

Avery Johnson (K-State)

First TD

+800

Anytime TD

+120

Joe Jackson (K-State)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+170

Jaron Tibbs (K-State)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+150

Jaden Nixon (UCF)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+140

Tayven Jackson (UCF)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+170

Garrett Oakley (K-State)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+250

Duane Thomas Jr. (UCF)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+260

Adonis Moise (K-State)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+440

DJ Black (UCF)

First TD

+2000

Anytime TD

+340

Dylan Wade (UCF)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+440

Marcus Burke (UCF)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+430

Kylan Fox (UCF)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+440

Brayden Loftin (K-State)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+600

Receiving Yards

Jayce Brown (K-State)

Over 73.5

-114

Under 73.5

-114

Jaron Tibbs (K-State)

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Duane Thomas Jr. (UCF)

Over 30.5

-114

Under 30.5

-114

DJ Black (UCF)

Over 21.5

-114

Under 21.5

-114

Garrett Oakley (K-State)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Myles Montgomery (UCF)

Over 46.5

-114

Under 46.5

-114

Avery Johnson (K-State)

Over 29.5

-114

Under 29.5

-114

Passing Yards

Avery Johnson (K-State)

Over 227.5

-114

Under 227.5

-114

Tayven Jackson (UCF)

Over 190.5

-114

Under 190.5

-114

K-State Hold Seven Wins From Last Ten at Home

K-State have seven wins and three losses in the last 10 home games, averaging 32.00 points on offense and surrendering 21.90 on defense.

UCF have taken four consecutive losses away from home. They have two wins and eight losses in the last 10 road games, posting 26.80 points per matchup while yielding 33.80.

The most recent Bill Snyder Family Stadium meeting saw K-State claim a 44-31 win over UCF.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Kansas State Home Stats		7-3	53.90	32.00	21.90	5	5
UCF Away Stats		2-8	60.60	26.80	33.80	8	2

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

UCF Knights Stats

Kansas State Wildcats Stats

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +5.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -5.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 1 of the last 10 games
• -5.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 53.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 60.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 31.30 pts and allowed 22.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 26.80 pts and allowed 33.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 53.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 54.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 26.50 pts and allowed 26.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 32.20 pts and allowed 22.30 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big 12	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Arizona	3	0	111	26	85	3-0	0-0	3W
BYU	3	0	130	16	114	2-0	1-0	3W
Houston	3	0	98	29	69	2-0	1-0	3W
Iowa State	4	0	119	57	62	2-0	2-0	4W
TCU	3	0	125	59	66	2-0	1-0	3W
Texas Tech	4	0	208	45	163	3-0	1-0	4W
UCF	3	0	119	26	93	3-0	0-0	3W
Kansas	3	1	149	66	83	3-0	0-1	1W
Utah	3	1	147	59	88	1-1	2-0	1L
Cincinnati	2	1	121	40	81	2-1	0-0	2W
Baylor	2	2	138	117	21	1-2	1-0	1L
Colorado	2	2	108	90	18	2-1	0-1	1W
West Virginia	2	2	96	85	11	2-0	0-2	1L
Oklahoma State	1	2	42	95	-53	1-1	0-1	2L
Kansas State	1	3	97	106	-9	1-2	0-1	2L