Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Dec 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Bills vs Patriots

The Buffalo Bills face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, December 14.

When the Patriots meet the Bills, we’re not sure that the total points will go over the line. Based on this prediction, you can land odds of -110 for Under 49.5 and this looks worth taking.

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Buffalo Bills claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 39-34 triumph against Cincinnati Bengals at Highmark Stadium made it back-to-back wins. The Bills moved the ball for 416 yards, split between 233 passing and 183 rushing yards. They converted for 22 first downs and reached the end zone 5 times.

New England Patriots last game was a 33-15 home win. This victory over New York Giants at Gillette Stadium was their tenth successive victory. The Patriots generated 395 total yards, made up of 276 passing and 119 rushing yards. The offense picked up 21 first downs and crossed the goal line 3 times.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Patriots have beaten the Bills in the last two meetings. They won 23-16 at Gillette Stadium and triumphed 23-20 at Highmark Stadium. The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved the Bills winning six times.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

228.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Drake Maye

233.5 Passing Yards

Over -114

Under -114

Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

Make the most of Bills vs Patriots with our betting analysis that includes an expert match prediction, expected scoreline, key player prop picks and a value-focused bet builder.

Game Prediction

The total line looks too big at 49.5 and we can take advantage. Go under this number at -110 and hope that there aren’t too many fireworks in this NFL battle.

Injuries can influence the outcome and our NFL handicappers factor that in alongside the latest form guide. We apply the same approach to the stats to build the clearest picture of how the game might unfold.

Key Bills vs Patriots stats:

• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 6 Bills games on the road.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 15 of the last 20 Bills games on the road.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Bills games.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Patriots games at home this season.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 9 of the last 10 Patriots games at home.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 7 Patriots games at home this season.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 games between these teams.

Under 49.5 Probability

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

Bettors looking for more juice from their Unders wager can check out the Result & Total lines. Here you simply combine points with the franchise that will win.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 49.5 Points @ -110 Watch Live Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Stefon Diggs Anytime TD +140

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) can be backed at odds of +140 to hit paydirt. We think this is the pick of the player props, with generous odds available when it comes to backing him to score a touchdown at any time.

Latest Stefon Diggs Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+140

First

+950

Receiving Yards

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

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Josh Allen Under 228.5 Passing Yards -114

You can back Josh Allen (Bills) at -114 to have less than 228.5 passing yards. He may fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, making this prop bet a strong pick.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-105

First

+700

Passing Yards

Over 228.5

-114

Under 228.5

-114

Rushing Yards

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 20 - 27 Patriots

There are many different ways to back the Patriots on the correct score betting and something like 27-20 in their favor might be along the right lines at huge odds.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

There’s the opportunity to back New England Patriots at -100 on the Moneyline although Buffalo Bills are priced up at betting odds of -118. This means the leading sportsbooks give the visiting team a 54% chance of success.

The spread is currently 1.5, with the total points line at 49.5. The advantage of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. There’s the chance to back Under 49.5 at -110.

If you’re planning to place a bet on a National Football League matchup, visit the top sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of available game lines and team props. Find the betting lines and odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Bills

-118

Patriots

-100

Point Spread

Bills -1.5

-105

Patriots +1.5

-115

Total Points

Under 49.5

-110

Over 49.5

-110

You will find James Cook at +550 to be First Touchdown Scorer which makes him the favorite. There’s the chance to get -115 that he scores a TD at anytime.

Touchdown

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+550

Anytime TD

-115

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+600

Anytime TD

-115

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

-105

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+950

Anytime TD

+140

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+200

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+1400

Anytime TD

+230

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+300

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1600

Anytime TD

+270

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+290

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+350

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+1800

Anytime TD

+330

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+440

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+390

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+500

Gabe Davis (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+390

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+550

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+700

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+5000

Anytime TD

+600

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+700

Brandin Cooks (Bills)

First TD

+5500

Anytime TD

+950

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+6500

Anytime TD

+1200

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+950

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+7000

Anytime TD

+950

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1100

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

CJ Dippre (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3000

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 50.5

-114

Under 50.5

-114

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 44.5

-114

Under 44.5

-114

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 43.5

-114

Under 43.5

-114

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 42.5

-114

Under 42.5

-114

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 31.5

-114

Under 31.5

-114

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 28.5

-114

Under 28.5

-114

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 17.5

-114

Under 17.5

-114

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

James Cook (Bills)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-114

Ty Johnson (Bills)

Over 14.5

-114

Under 14.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 80.5

-114

Under 80.5

-114

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 45.5

-114

Under 45.5

-114

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 38.5

-114

Under 38.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 35.5

-114

Under 35.5

-114

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 20.5

-114

Under 20.5

-114

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 233.5

-114

Under 233.5

-114

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 228.5

-114

Under 228.5

-114

Can Patriots Keep Rolling at Home?

The Patriots have reeled off five straight victories at Gillette Stadium. They have gone 6-4 across their last 10 home games, scoring 23.90 points per contest and conceding 20.00.

The Bills have a 4-6 record in their last 10 road games, scoring 27.70 points per contest and conceding 24.40.

The last Gillette Stadium meeting saw the Patriots beat the Bills 23-16. The past 6 games between these teams at Gillette Stadium are dead even, with three wins apiece.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Patriots Home Stats		6-4	43.90	23.90	20.00	1	9
Bills Away Stats		4-6	52.10	27.70	24.40	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.40 pts and allowed 22.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.70 pts and allowed 24.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 46.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 43.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.10 pts and allowed 17.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.90 pts and allowed 20.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 372.80 Yds. Allowed 313.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 156.20 Yds. Allowed 129.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 216.60 Yds. Allowed 184.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 19.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.40. Committed by opponents 4.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.80 Yds. Gained 41.60 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 367.60 Yds. Allowed 290.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 116.70 Yds. Allowed 98.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 250.90 Yds. Allowed 192.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.30 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.50. Allowed 18.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.40. Committed by opponents 6.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 46.80 Yds. Gained 46.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 381.50 Yds. Allowed 329.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 165.90 Yds. Allowed 118.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 215.60 Yds. Allowed 210.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.60. Allowed 20.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.50. Committed by opponents 5.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 55.00 Yds. Gained 45.20 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 340.80 Yds. Allowed 284.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 112.70 Yds. Allowed 106.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 228.10 Yds. Allowed 178.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.30. Allowed 18.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 50.40 Yds. Gained 43.50 Yds

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