Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Dec 2025

NFL Betting Preview: Bills vs Patriots

The Buffalo Bills face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 13:00 on Sunday, December 14.

When the Patriots meet the Bills, we’re not sure that the total points will go over the line. Based on this prediction, you can land odds of -110 for Under 49.5 and this looks worth taking.

Buffalo Bills claimed a home victory in their previous game. A 39-34 triumph against Cincinnati Bengals at Highmark Stadium made it back-to-back wins. The Bills moved the ball for 416 yards, split between 233 passing and 183 rushing yards. They converted for 22 first downs and reached the end zone 5 times.

New England Patriots last game was a 33-15 home win. This victory over New York Giants at Gillette Stadium was their tenth successive victory. The Patriots generated 395 total yards, made up of 276 passing and 119 rushing yards. The offense picked up 21 first downs and crossed the goal line 3 times.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Patriots have beaten the Bills in the last two meetings. They won 23-16 at Gillette Stadium and triumphed 23-20 at Highmark Stadium. The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved the Bills winning six times.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

222.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Drake Maye

233.5 Passing Yards

Over -112

Under -112

Bills vs Patriots Prediction & Picks

Make the most of Bills vs Patriots with our betting analysis that includes an expert match prediction, expected scoreline, key player prop picks and a value-focused bet builder.

Game Prediction

The total line looks too big at 49.5 and we can take advantage. Go under this number at -110 and hope that there aren’t too many fireworks in this NFL battle.

Injuries can influence the outcome and our NFL handicappers factor that in alongside the latest form guide. We apply the same approach to the stats to build the clearest picture of how the game might unfold.

Key Bills vs Patriots stats:

• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 6 Bills games on the road.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 15 of the last 20 Bills games on the road.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Bills games.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 Patriots games at home this season.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 9 of the last 10 Patriots games at home.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 7 Patriots games at home this season.
• The 49.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 4 games between these teams.

Under 49.5 Probability

When you look at the latest betting odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

Bettors looking for more juice from their Unders wager can check out the Result & Total lines. Here you simply combine points with the franchise that will win.

Check our complete list of betting promo codes, free bet deals and the latest welcome bonuses before wagering.

Our Game Prediction

Under 49.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Dec 12, 19:26). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Stefon Diggs Anytime TD +140

Stefon Diggs (Patriots) can be backed at odds of +140 to hit paydirt. We think this is the pick of the player props, with generous odds available when it comes to backing him to score a touchdown at any time.

Latest Stefon Diggs Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

+150

First

+1000

Receiving Yards

Over 50.5

-112

Under 50.5

-112

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Josh Allen Under 228.5 Passing Yards -114

You can back Josh Allen (Bills) at -114 to have less than 228.5 passing yards. He may fall short of the QB Passing Yards line, making this prop bet a strong pick.

Latest Josh Allen Player Prop Odds

Touchdown

Anytime

-115

First

+650

Passing Yards

Over 222.5

-112

Under 222.5

-112

Rushing Yards

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Bills 20 - 27 Patriots

There are many different ways to back the Patriots on the correct score betting and something like 27-20 in their favor might be along the right lines at huge odds.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Bills vs Patriots Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

There’s the opportunity to back New England Patriots at +164 on the Moneyline although Buffalo Bills are priced up at betting odds of -196. This means the leading sportsbooks give the visiting team a 66% chance of success.

The spread is currently 4.5, with the total points line at 46.5. The advantage of the Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. There’s the chance to back Under 46.5 at -110.

If you’re planning to place a bet on a National Football League matchup, visit the top sportsbooks and check out the hundreds of available game lines and team props. Find the betting lines and odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Bills

-196

Patriots

+164

Point Spread

Bills -4.5

-110

Patriots +4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 46.5

-110

Over 46.5

-110

You will find James Cook at +500 to be First Touchdown Scorer which makes him the favorite. There’s the chance to get -120 that he scores a TD at anytime.

Touchdown

James Cook (Bills)

First TD

+500

Anytime TD

-120

Josh Allen (Bills)

First TD

+650

Anytime TD

-115

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

First TD

+700

Anytime TD

+110

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

First TD

+1000

Anytime TD

+150

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

First TD

+1100

Anytime TD

+185

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

First TD

+1200

Anytime TD

+210

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

First TD

+1500

Anytime TD

+280

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+330

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

First TD

+1700

Anytime TD

+280

Dawson Knox (Bills)

First TD

+1900

Anytime TD

+360

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+420

Gabe Davis (Bills)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+420

Drake Maye (Patriots)

First TD

+2200

Anytime TD

+450

Keon Coleman (Bills)

First TD

+2700

Anytime TD

+550

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

First TD

+3000

Anytime TD

+650

Ty Johnson (Bills)

First TD

+4000

Anytime TD

+550

Tyrell Shavers (Bills)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+700

Joshua Palmer (Bills)

First TD

+4500

Anytime TD

+700

Austin Hooper (Patriots)

First TD

+6000

Anytime TD

+750

Jackson Hawes (Bills)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1200

Efton Chism III (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1000

Kyle Williams (Patriots)

First TD

+8000

Anytime TD

+1000

Brandin Cooks (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1400

Ray Davis (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+1200

Jack Westover (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

CJ Dippre (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2500

Reggie Gilliam (Bills)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+3300

D'Ernest Johnson (Patriots)

First TD

+10000

Anytime TD

+2200

Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs (Patriots)

Over 50.5

-112

Under 50.5

-112

Khalil Shakir (Bills)

Over 43.5

-112

Under 43.5

-112

Dalton Kincaid (Bills)

Over 42.5

-112

Under 42.5

-112

Hunter Henry (Patriots)

Over 41.5

-112

Under 41.5

-112

Kayshon Boutte (Patriots)

Over 31.5

-112

Under 31.5

-112

Mack Hollins (Patriots)

Over 27.5

-112

Under 27.5

-112

Gabe Davis (Bills)

Over 18.5

-112

Under 18.5

-112

James Cook (Bills)

Over 16.5

-112

Under 16.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

Dawson Knox (Bills)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

DeMario Douglas (Patriots)

Over 15.5

-112

Under 15.5

-112

Keon Coleman (Bills)

Over 12.5

-112

Under 12.5

-112

Ty Johnson (Bills)

Over 11.5

-112

Under 11.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 10.5

-112

Under 10.5

-112

Rushing Yards

James Cook (Bills)

Over 83.5

-112

Under 83.5

-112

TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Over 45.5

-112

Under 45.5

-112

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Over 38.5

-112

Under 38.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 37.5

-112

Under 37.5

-112

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 22.5

-112

Under 22.5

-112

Passing Yards

Drake Maye (Patriots)

Over 233.5

-112

Under 233.5

-112

Josh Allen (Bills)

Over 222.5

-112

Under 222.5

-112

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to NFL micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Can Patriots Keep Rolling at Home?

The Patriots have reeled off five straight victories at Gillette Stadium. They have gone 6-4 across their last 10 home games, scoring 23.90 points per contest and conceding 20.00.

The Bills have a 4-6 record in their last 10 road games, scoring 27.70 points per contest and conceding 24.40.

The last Gillette Stadium meeting saw the Patriots beat the Bills 23-16. The past 6 games between these teams at Gillette Stadium are dead even, with three wins apiece.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O49.5	U49.5
Patriots Home Stats		6-4	43.90	23.90	20.00	1	9
Bills Away Stats		4-6	52.10	27.70	24.40	3	7

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O49.5 = Games Over 49.5 Points
• U49.5 = Games Under 49.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Buffalo Bills Stats

New England Patriots Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 49.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 52.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 49.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 27.40 pts and allowed 22.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 27.70 pts and allowed 24.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 46.40 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 43.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 49.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 49.5 at Home: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 29.10 pts and allowed 17.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 23.90 pts and allowed 20.00 pts in the last 10 home games

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 372.80 Yds. Allowed 313.00 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 156.20 Yds. Allowed 129.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 216.60 Yds. Allowed 184.00 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 2.60 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.50 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.70 TD. Allowed 0.90 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.90. Allowed 19.00
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.80. Committed by opponents 1.40
• Total Penalties: Committed 7.40. Committed by opponents 4.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 58.80 Yds. Gained 41.60 Yds

Game Stats

Last 10 Games

• Total Yards: Gained 367.60 Yds. Allowed 290.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 116.70 Yds. Allowed 98.20 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 250.90 Yds. Allowed 192.10 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.30 TD. Allowed 2.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 1.10 TD. Allowed 0.30 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.80 TD. Allowed 1.60 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.50. Allowed 18.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 0.70. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.40. Committed by opponents 6.00
• Penalty Yards: Lost 46.80 Yds. Gained 46.80 Yds

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Total Yards: Gained 381.50 Yds. Allowed 329.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 165.90 Yds. Allowed 118.40 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 215.60 Yds. Allowed 210.90 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 3.50 TD. Allowed 3.00 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 2.00 TD. Allowed 1.40 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.40 TD. Allowed 1.30 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 21.60. Allowed 20.10
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.00. Committed by opponents 1.10
• Total Penalties: Committed 6.50. Committed by opponents 5.60
• Penalty Yards: Lost 55.00 Yds. Gained 45.20 Yds

Last 10 Home Games

• Total Yards: Gained 340.80 Yds. Allowed 284.30 Yds
• Rushing Yards: Gained 112.70 Yds. Allowed 106.00 Yds
• Passing Yards: Gained 228.10 Yds. Allowed 178.30 Yds
• Total Touchdowns: Scored 2.60 TD. Allowed 2.50 TD
• Rushing Touchdowns: Scored 0.80 TD. Allowed 0.70 TD
• Passing Touchdowns: Scored 1.60 TD. Allowed 1.80 TD
• Total 1st Downs: Picked up 20.30. Allowed 18.20
• Total Turnovers: Committed 1.30. Committed by opponents 0.80
• Total Penalties: Committed 5.80. Committed by opponents 5.70
• Penalty Yards: Lost 50.40 Yds. Gained 43.50 Yds

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