Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Monday

NBA Betting Preview: Nuggets vs Heat

The Denver Nuggets face the Miami Heat in this NBA clash. Our betting preview features expert NBA predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and confirmed starting lineups.

There’s every chance that the total won’t be as high as 245.5, so we’re prepared to take the -112 that the Nuggets and the Heat go under the line.

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Denver Nuggets have been defeated in back-to-back road games. They recently suffered a 127-126 loss against Orlando Magic at Kia Center. Nikola Jokic was able to drop 34 points, 21 rebounds, and 12 assists as part of a magical triple-double.

Miami Heat won their last game 142-116, making it successive victories. This was a home win at Kaseya Center against Indiana Pacers. Offensively, Jaime Jaquez Jr. led the charge with 28, while Andrew Wiggins contributed 28 and Norman Powell 23.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Nuggets won the most recent matchup between these teams. A 122-112 victory was registered against the Heat at Ball Arena. The Nuggets have triumphed in their previous eight meetings against the Heat. On the head-to-head front, it has been 9 wins out of 10.

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Nuggets	22	9	0.71	125.8	117.5	8.3	10-5	12-4	4-1	16-7	7-3	1L
Heat	17	15	0.531	120.2	117.4	2.8	11-5	6-10	3-3	11-10	3-7	2W

View Full Standings

The Nuggets have 7 wins and 3 losses in the past 10 games. They are averaging 127.3 points, 41.9 rebounds, 30.2 assists, 7.9 steals and 3.3 blocks while shooting 51.4% from the field and 81.5% from the free-throw line. The opposition have an average of 120.7 points and 43.4 rebounds per contest.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 32.4 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.9 assists, while Jamal Murray averages 4.0 (46.5%) 3-pointers made.

The Heat have won 3 and lost 7 of their previous 10 contests. Averaging 112.6 points, 45.3 rebounds, 24.7 assists, 9.2 steals and 4.3 blocks per game while shooting 45.7% from the field and 76.9% from the free-throw line. Their opponents have an average of 115.1 points and 44.7 rebounds.

Norman Powell is averaging 21.6 points and 2.1 (30.0%) 3-pointers made. Kel'el Ware has an average of 10.7 rebounds and Davion Mitchell 4.9 assists.

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Prediction & Picks

From our main match prediction to correct score advice, must-watch player props and a custom bet builder — this Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat betting preview covers it all.

Game Prediction

The total line looks too big at 245.5 and we can take advantage. Go under this number at -112 and hope that there aren’t too many fireworks in this NBA contest.

Our expert basketball predictions always start with checking the latest team news and understanding how it might impact the matchup. From there, we dive into the most valuable NBA stats to uncover the insights that matter most.

Key Nuggets vs Heat stats:

• The 245.5 line hasn’t been covered in 13 of the last 20 Nuggets games on the road.
• The 245.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Nuggets games on the road.
• The 245.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Heat games.
• The 245.5 line hasn’t been covered in 14 of the last 20 Heat games.

Under 245.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.9% chance of winning. However, we have this figure between 55-60% based on our in-depth research. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

The best sportsbooks will allow you to shoot for bigger odds on your Under bet. By moving the line and going for a lower Total, there’s the chance to get more juice.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 245.5 Points @ -112 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Assists +109

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) has recorded Over 11.5 assists in 4 straight games. The line is attractive when it comes to betting on Player Assists and you can get +109 that he is able to land a return.

Latest Nikola Jokic Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 30.5

-104

Under 30.5

-123

Assists

Over 11.5

+109

Under 11.5

-143

Rebounds

Over 13.5

-101

Under 13.5

-132

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Davion Mitchell Under 2.5 Rebounds -182

Davion Mitchell (Heat) hasn't covered the 2.5 rebounds total in 7 of the past 8 games. There is juice when it comes to going under the Player Rebounds line and this is priced at -182.

Latest Davion Mitchell Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 8.5

-128

Under 8.5

+101

Assists

Over 7.5

-123

Under 7.5

-106

Rebounds

Over 2.5

+137

Under 2.5

-182

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Correct Score Prediction

Nuggets 122 - 118 Heat

There’s every chance that this is going to be a close contest and we’ll have a play on the Nuggets enjoying a 122-118 winning scoreline. Hopefully this can go close.

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The Moneyline odds about Miami Heat triumphing is priced at +108 and you can get Denver Nuggets at -127. This means the leading NBA sportsbooks give the visiting team a 56% chance of success.

There is a spread of 2 and total points has a line of 245.5. A Total bet relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. Those expecting a low total can back Under 245.5 at -112.

The best basketball betting sites offer a huge selection of team props and game lines when it comes to most NBA contests. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.

Moneyline

Nuggets

-127

Heat

+108

Point Spread

Nuggets -2

-110

Heat +2

-110

Total Points

Under 245.5

-112

Over 245.5

-108

In terms of landing the most baskets, favorite Nikola Jokic is available at -104 to rack up Over 30.5 points. If you want to go Under, then -123 is available.

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 30.5

-104

Under 30.5

-123

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 26.5

-106

Under 26.5

-120

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 23.5

-122

Under 23.5

-105

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 16.5

-110

Under 16.5

-115

Tim Hardaway Jr (Nuggets)

Over 15.5

-115

Under 15.5

-111

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 15.5

-110

Under 15.5

-116

Peyton Watson (Nuggets)

Over 11.5

-109

Under 11.5

-118

Davion Mitchell (Heat)

Over 8.5

-128

Under 8.5

+101

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 11.5

+109

Under 11.5

-143

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 7.5

+113

Under 7.5

-149

Davion Mitchell (Heat)

Over 7.5

-123

Under 7.5

-106

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-101

Under 13.5

-132

Bam Adebayo (Heat)

Over 8.5

-132

Under 8.5

-100

Peyton Watson (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

+111

Under 5.5

-147

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

+117

Under 4.5

-154

Andrew Wiggins (Heat)

Over 4.5

-111

Under 4.5

-119

Norman Powell (Heat)

Over 3.5

+114

Under 3.5

-152

Tim Hardaway Jr (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

+122

Under 3.5

-161

Davion Mitchell (Heat)

Over 2.5

+137

Under 2.5

-182

The Heat have gone 6-4 across their last 10 home games, putting up 115.20 points per contest and giving up 113.60.

The Nuggets own a 8-2 mark in their past 10 road games, putting up 126.80 points on average and giving up 117.60.

The Nuggets earned a 133-113 win over the Heat the last time they played at Kaseya Center. Looking back at the past 9 head-to-head meetings at Kaseya Center, the Nuggets have posted eight victories, with the Heat earning one.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O245.5	U245.5
Miami Heat Home Stats		6-4	228.80	115.20	113.60	3	7
Denver Nuggets Away Stats		8-2	244.40	126.80	117.60	4	6

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O245.5 = Games Over 245.5 Points
• U245.5 = Games Under 245.5 Points

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Denver Nuggets Stats

Miami Heat Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 3 wins and 7 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -2 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -2 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +2 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• +2 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 248.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 244.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 245.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 245.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 127.30 pts and allowed 120.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 126.80 pts and allowed 117.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 227.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 228.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 245.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 245.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 112.60 pts and allowed 115.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 115.20 pts and allowed 113.60 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.40 (57%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 15.40 (43%)
• Free Throws Made: 20.30 (81.53%)
• Rebounds: Total 41.9, Offensive 8.80, Defensive 33.10
• Assists: 30.20
• Blocks: 3.30
• Steals: 7.90
• Turnovers : 12.60
• Personal Fouls: 19.20

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.60 (61%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 15.50 (46%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.10 (80.93%)
• Rebounds: Total 40.9, Offensive 9.50, Defensive 31.40
• Assists: 31.20
• Blocks: 3.30
• Steals: 6.80
• Turnovers : 13.90
• Personal Fouls: 19.30

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.80 (52%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 10.90 (34%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.30 (76.89%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.3, Offensive 11.10, Defensive 34.20
• Assists: 24.70
• Blocks: 4.30
• Steals: 9.20
• Turnovers : 12.90
• Personal Fouls: 16.00

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.80 (52%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 11.80 (36%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.20 (79.13%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.5, Offensive 11.50, Defensive 34.00
• Assists: 26.80
• Blocks: 5.20
• Steals: 9.70
• Turnovers : 13.90
• Personal Fouls: 17.30

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of tip-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.

NBA Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Knicks	22	9	0.71	120.5	113.7	6.8	15-2	7-7	5-2	18-8	8-2	2W
Celtics	19	12	0.613	116.5	110.5	6	10-5	9-7	5-4	15-8	7-3	1L
Raptors	19	14	0.576	114.4	112.9	1.5	9-7	10-7	3-6	16-10	4-6	1W
76ers	16	14	0.533	115.7	115.6	0.1	9-8	7-6	6-3	13-12	5-5	3L
Nets	10	19	0.345	109.8	113.7	-3.9	4-11	6-8	3-7	8-14	7-3	3W

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	24	8	0.75	118.8	112.9	5.9	13-2	11-6	5-3	17-5	7-3	2L
Cavaliers	17	16	0.515	119.5	117.7	1.8	11-8	6-8	6-2	13-12	4-6	2L
Bulls	15	16	0.484	118.8	122	-3.2	8-7	7-9	3-6	12-11	6-4	1L
Bucks	13	19	0.406	112.7	116	-3.3	8-8	5-11	5-4	11-13	4-6	1W
Pacers	6	26	0.188	109.8	119.2	-9.4	5-12	1-14	2-6	4-16	2-8	8L

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Magic	18	14	0.563	117.1	115.3	1.8	11-6	7-8	5-3	12-10	5-5	1W
Heat	17	15	0.531	120.2	117.4	2.8	11-5	6-10	3-3	11-10	3-7	2W
Hawks	15	18	0.455	118.8	120.1	-1.3	5-11	10-7	4-3	9-13	2-8	6L
Hornets	11	20	0.355	115.6	118.4	-2.8	7-8	4-12	4-4	10-14	5-5	2W
Wizards	7	23	0.233	113.5	125.4	-11.9	4-10	3-13	1-4	4-17	4-6	2W

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	27	5	0.844	121.5	107.3	14.2	15-2	12-3	5-2	22-5	6-4	1W
Nuggets	22	9	0.71	125.8	117.5	8.3	10-5	12-4	4-1	16-7	7-3	1L
Timberwolves	20	12	0.625	118.8	114.7	4.1	12-6	8-6	4-4	13-10	6-4	2L
Trail Blazers	13	19	0.406	116.6	120.1	-3.5	6-9	7-10	3-3	10-12	4-6	1W
Jazz	12	19	0.387	120.5	127.1	-6.6	8-10	4-9	0-6	7-14	4-6	2W

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Lakers	20	10	0.667	117.2	116.9	0.3	8-5	12-5	4-4	15-8	5-5	1W
Suns	18	13	0.581	115.1	113.7	1.4	10-5	8-8	7-4	17-12	6-4	3W
Warriors	16	16	0.5	114.9	113.3	1.6	10-4	6-12	4-2	12-10	5-5	1L
Clippers	10	21	0.323	111.5	114.8	-3.3	6-8	4-13	2-4	7-14	5-5	4W
Kings	8	24	0.25	111.7	122.1	-10.4	5-10	3-14	1-4	6-20	3-7	1L

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Spurs	23	8	0.742	120.1	113.6	6.5	11-3	12-5	7-0	14-7	8-2	1L
Rockets	19	10	0.655	120.3	111.7	8.6	9-2	10-8	2-3	11-9	5-5	2W
Grizzlies	15	17	0.469	115.3	115.8	-0.5	7-8	8-9	4-3	13-9	6-4	1L
Mavericks	12	21	0.364	113.5	117.5	-4	9-9	3-12	2-6	6-15	4-6	2L
Pelicans	8	25	0.242	115.2	122.6	-7.4	6-14	2-11	3-6	4-21	5-5	3L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	24	8	0.75	118.8	112.9	5.9	13-2	11-6	5-3	17-5	7-3	2L
Knicks	22	9	0.71	120.5	113.7	6.8	15-2	7-7	5-2	18-8	8-2	2W
Celtics	19	12	0.613	116.5	110.5	6	10-5	9-7	5-4	15-8	7-3	1L
Magic	18	14	0.563	117.1	115.3	1.8	11-6	7-8	5-3	12-10	5-5	1W
Raptors	19	14	0.576	114.4	112.9	1.5	9-7	10-7	3-6	16-10	4-6	1W
76ers	16	14	0.533	115.7	115.6	0.1	9-8	7-6	6-3	13-12	5-5	3L
Heat	17	15	0.531	120.2	117.4	2.8	11-5	6-10	3-3	11-10	3-7	2W
Cavaliers	17	16	0.515	119.5	117.7	1.8	11-8	6-8	6-2	13-12	4-6	2L
Bulls	15	16	0.484	118.8	122	-3.2	8-7	7-9	3-6	12-11	6-4	1L
Hawks	15	18	0.455	118.8	120.1	-1.3	5-11	10-7	4-3	9-13	2-8	6L
Bucks	13	19	0.406	112.7	116	-3.3	8-8	5-11	5-4	11-13	4-6	1W
Hornets	11	20	0.355	115.6	118.4	-2.8	7-8	4-12	4-4	10-14	5-5	2W
Nets	10	19	0.345	109.8	113.7	-3.9	4-11	6-8	3-7	8-14	7-3	3W
Wizards	7	23	0.233	113.5	125.4	-11.9	4-10	3-13	1-4	4-17	4-6	2W
Pacers	6	26	0.188	109.8	119.2	-9.4	5-12	1-14	2-6	4-16	2-8	8L

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	27	5	0.844	121.5	107.3	14.2	15-2	12-3	5-2	22-5	6-4	1W
Spurs	23	8	0.742	120.1	113.6	6.5	11-3	12-5	7-0	14-7	8-2	1L
Nuggets	22	9	0.71	125.8	117.5	8.3	10-5	12-4	4-1	16-7	7-3	1L
Rockets	19	10	0.655	120.3	111.7	8.6	9-2	10-8	2-3	11-9	5-5	2W
Lakers	20	10	0.667	117.2	116.9	0.3	8-5	12-5	4-4	15-8	5-5	1W
Timberwolves	20	12	0.625	118.8	114.7	4.1	12-6	8-6	4-4	13-10	6-4	2L
Suns	18	13	0.581	115.1	113.7	1.4	10-5	8-8	7-4	17-12	6-4	3W
Warriors	16	16	0.5	114.9	113.3	1.6	10-4	6-12	4-2	12-10	5-5	1L
Grizzlies	15	17	0.469	115.3	115.8	-0.5	7-8	8-9	4-3	13-9	6-4	1L
Trail Blazers	13	19	0.406	116.6	120.1	-3.5	6-9	7-10	3-3	10-12	4-6	1W
Jazz	12	19	0.387	120.5	127.1	-6.6	8-10	4-9	0-6	7-14	4-6	2W
Mavericks	12	21	0.364	113.5	117.5	-4	9-9	3-12	2-6	6-15	4-6	2L
Clippers	10	21	0.323	111.5	114.8	-3.3	6-8	4-13	2-4	7-14	5-5	4W
Kings	8	24	0.25	111.7	122.1	-10.4	5-10	3-14	1-4	6-20	3-7	1L
Pelicans	8	25	0.242	115.2	122.6	-7.4	6-14	2-11	3-6	4-21	5-5	3L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	27	5	0.844	121.5	107.3	14.2	15-2	12-3	5-2	22-5	6-4	1W
Pistons	24	8	0.75	118.8	112.9	5.9	13-2	11-6	5-3	17-5	7-3	2L
Spurs	23	8	0.742	120.1	113.6	6.5	11-3	12-5	7-0	14-7	8-2	1L
Nuggets	22	9	0.71	125.8	117.5	8.3	10-5	12-4	4-1	16-7	7-3	1L
Knicks	22	9	0.71	120.5	113.7	6.8	15-2	7-7	5-2	18-8	8-2	2W
Lakers	20	10	0.667	117.2	116.9	0.3	8-5	12-5	4-4	15-8	5-5	1W
Rockets	19	10	0.655	120.3	111.7	8.6	9-2	10-8	2-3	11-9	5-5	2W
Timberwolves	20	12	0.625	118.8	114.7	4.1	12-6	8-6	4-4	13-10	6-4	2L
Celtics	19	12	0.613	116.5	110.5	6	10-5	9-7	5-4	15-8	7-3	1L
Suns	18	13	0.581	115.1	113.7	1.4	10-5	8-8	7-4	17-12	6-4	3W
Raptors	19	14	0.576	114.4	112.9	1.5	9-7	10-7	3-6	16-10	4-6	1W
Magic	18	14	0.563	117.1	115.3	1.8	11-6	7-8	5-3	12-10	5-5	1W
76ers	16	14	0.533	115.7	115.6	0.1	9-8	7-6	6-3	13-12	5-5	3L
Heat	17	15	0.531	120.2	117.4	2.8	11-5	6-10	3-3	11-10	3-7	2W
Cavaliers	17	16	0.515	119.5	117.7	1.8	11-8	6-8	6-2	13-12	4-6	2L
Warriors	16	16	0.5	114.9	113.3	1.6	10-4	6-12	4-2	12-10	5-5	1L
Bulls	15	16	0.484	118.8	122	-3.2	8-7	7-9	3-6	12-11	6-4	1L
Grizzlies	15	17	0.469	115.3	115.8	-0.5	7-8	8-9	4-3	13-9	6-4	1L
Hawks	15	18	0.455	118.8	120.1	-1.3	5-11	10-7	4-3	9-13	2-8	6L
Bucks	13	19	0.406	112.7	116	-3.3	8-8	5-11	5-4	11-13	4-6	1W
Trail Blazers	13	19	0.406	116.6	120.1	-3.5	6-9	7-10	3-3	10-12	4-6	1W
Jazz	12	19	0.387	120.5	127.1	-6.6	8-10	4-9	0-6	7-14	4-6	2W
Mavericks	12	21	0.364	113.5	117.5	-4	9-9	3-12	2-6	6-15	4-6	2L
Hornets	11	20	0.355	115.6	118.4	-2.8	7-8	4-12	4-4	10-14	5-5	2W
Nets	10	19	0.345	109.8	113.7	-3.9	4-11	6-8	3-7	8-14	7-3	3W
Clippers	10	21	0.323	111.5	114.8	-3.3	6-8	4-13	2-4	7-14	5-5	4W
Kings	8	24	0.25	111.7	122.1	-10.4	5-10	3-14	1-4	6-20	3-7	1L
Pelicans	8	25	0.242	115.2	122.6	-7.4	6-14	2-11	3-6	4-21	5-5	3L
Wizards	7	23	0.233	113.5	125.4	-11.9	4-10	3-13	1-4	4-17	4-6	2W
Pacers	6	26	0.188	109.8	119.2	-9.4	5-12	1-14	2-6	4-16	2-8	8L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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