Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 26 Sep 2025
WNBA Betting Preview: Lynx vs Mercury
The Minnesota Lynx clash with the Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 of this WNBA semifinal matchup at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 21:30 on Friday, September 26. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.
Lynx Can Cover the Line
Our pick is that the Lynx will gain the upper hand against the Mercury. This leads us to backing them against the spread at -115, with the -3.5 line offering lots of appeal.
Confident in our wager? Grab our exclusive BetMGM promo code and read our expert site review before placing locking in your spread pick.
Lynx Have 8 Wins in Previous 10 H2H Clashes
When Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx met in Game 2 on Tuesday night, Mercury managed a 89-83 road victory. The Lynx have won eight of the past 10 games that these teams have played.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
34 | 10 | 3787 | 3373 | 414 | 20-2 | 14-8 | 1W |
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
Our Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury preview includes expert betting advice on all fronts — from a match prediction and correct score guidance to player prop selections and a bet builder tailored for value.
Game Prediction
Bet on Lynx with a -3.5 spread in the WNBA showdown. This is an attractive number and we’re confident the favorites can cover this generous line at odds of -115.
We’re always on top of team news and when combined with recent form, it helps us uncover the best value. Our WNBA handicappers also take a data-led approach, using key stats to back every pick.
Key Lynx vs Mercury stats:
Lynx -3.5 Probability
Based on the latest betting odds from the best basketball sportsbooks, our pick carries a 53.5% chance of winning. However, our cappers have this figure closer to 60% based on their in-depth research. This is why we regard this as a value wager.
There are bigger odds available to bettors who are prepared to move the line. By taking on more risk, you are able to get more juice from your selections as a result.
Before placing your next bet, explore our complete guide to the best betting offers, promotions and welcome bonuses today.
Best Bet
Lynx -3.5 @ -115
Player Prop Picks
Satou Sabally (Mercury) is available at -125 to score Under 15.5 points. We’re expecting her to fall short of the Player Points line which makes an Unders bet really appealing.
Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds
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Kayla McBride (Lynx) can be wagered to total Over 14.5 points at -120. We’ve found an opportunity to bet on Player Points where we’re able to back her to cover the line.
Latest Kayla McBride Player Prop Odds
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Same Game Parlay Picks
Try out our same game parlay pick which starts with Lynx -3.5. We’ve also gone for Under 158.5 and Satou Sabally (Mercury) to score Under 15.5 points.
A same game parlay is a great alternative for bettors who want to focus their wagering on a single basketball game. You can predict different outcomes and see their odds combined before going ahead and placing this tailored bet.
Correct Score Prediction
80
-
73
Mercury
The Lynx might get the upper hand and it might be worth backing them to achieve a specific correct score. Try an outcome of 80-73 for a big possible return from your stake.
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.
Books Think Lynx Likeliest to Win
Minnesota Lynx have the shortest price to win this WNBA game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 63% probability due to their -167 Moneyline betting odds. For those wanting to back Phoenix Mercury, you will find +136 about the underdogs.
3.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 158.5 right now. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. Those that want to back Under 158.5 can find odds of -108 available.
Fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every women's basketball matchup on the coupon. Head to the top betting apps and find the best value picks.
Napheesa Collier Favorite to Get Most Points
Napheesa Collier is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can back -111 that she gets Over 21.5 points. Alternatively, Under is trading at -116.
Micro Betting
Micro betting is an exciting way to wager on basketball. There are a huge range of live lines and it’s a simple case of predicting what is going to happen. Next Field Goal, where you select if the shot will be a two or three-pointer are among the options.
Last 5 & H2H
- WNBA: 24/09 2025 Mercury 89 Lynx 83
- WNBA: 21/09 2025 Mercury 69 Lynx 82
- WNBA: 16/07 2025 Mercury 66 Lynx 79
- WNBA: 09/07 2025 Lynx 71 Mercury 79
- WNBA: 04/06 2025 Mercury 65 Lynx 88
- WNBA: 31/05 2025 Lynx 74 Mercury 71
- WNBA: 26/09 2024 Mercury 88 Lynx 101
- WNBA: 22/09 2024 Mercury 95 Lynx 102
- WNBA: 29/08 2024 Lynx 89 Mercury 76
- WNBA: 23/06 2024 Mercury 60 Lynx 73
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Minnesota Lynx Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -3.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- +3.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- +3.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 159.00 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 162.70 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 158.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 158.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.00 pts and allowed 75.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 82.30 pts and allowed 80.40 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 158.90 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 155.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 158.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 158.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 79.50 pts and allowed 79.40 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 80.40 pts and allowed 75.00 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1
Lynx
|
34 | 10 | 3787 | 3373 | 414 | 20-2 | 14-8 | 1W |
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
3
Dream
|
30 | 14 | 3712 | 3378 | 334 | 16-6 | 14-8 | 6W |
|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
6
Fever
|
24 | 20 | 3734 | 3586 | 148 | 13-9 | 11-11 | 3W |
7
Storm
|
23 | 21 | 3614 | 3524 | 90 | 10-12 | 13-9 | 1W |
8
Valkyries
|
23 | 21 | 3420 | 3359 | 61 | 14-8 | 9-13 | 3L |
9
Sparks
|
21 | 23 | 3769 | 3882 | -113 | 9-13 | 12-10 | 1L |
10
Mystics
|
16 | 28 | 3394 | 3589 | -195 | 10-12 | 6-16 | 10L |
11
Sun
|
11 | 33 | 3337 | 3782 | -445 | 7-15 | 4-18 | 2L |
12
Sky
|
10 | 34 | 3335 | 3777 | -442 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 4L |
13
Wings
|
10 | 34 | 3594 | 3871 | -277 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 1W |
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