New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 14 Sep 2025
WNBA Betting Preview: Liberty vs Mercury
The Liberty face the Mercury in this WNBA matchup at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 17:00 on Sunday, September 14. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.
Oppose a High-Scoring Contest
Betting on the totals provides plenty of value at -110. The line is set at 163.5 and we’d be surprised if the Liberty and the Mercury’ combined points total exceeds that amount.
Thinking it’ll be a low-scoring matchup? Snag the latest BetMGM promo code and give our in-depth site review a read before you place your bet.
Mercury 80-63 Winners in Most Recent H2H
New York Liberty got the win in their previous game. A 91-86 triumph occurred on the road at Wintrust Arena when playing Chicago Sky.
Phoenix Mercury suffered a defeat in their last game. A 97-76 scoreline occurred on the road at College Park Center against Dallas Wings.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The last head-to-head saw the Mercury claim a 80-63 win over the Liberty at PHX Arena. The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved the Liberty winning six times.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
The New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury betting tips feature sharp analysis across major markets, including a key match prediction, player prop bets, correct score guidance and a ready-made bet builder.
Game Prediction
The -110 about Under 163.5 points makes plenty of appeal. We’re not sure that the teams can combine to reach that number for this WNBA contest.
Our WNBA handicappers start by reviewing the latest team news for each franchise, followed by a close look at recent form. That information is then applied to the most relevant stats to reach a well-informed verdict.
Key Liberty vs Mercury stats:
Under 163.5 Probability
Based on the latest betting odds from the best basketball sportsbooks, our pick carries a 52.4% chance of winning. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
The bigger odds can be found if you combine your Under wager on the Totals with other picks in a Bet Builder. This is popular way of betting on multiple outcomes in a single game.
Ready to boost your bet? Explore a huge selection of welcome bonuses in our regularly updated betting offers guide.
Best Bet
Under 163.5 Points @ -110
Player Prop Picks
Natasha Cloud (Liberty) can be wagered to total Over 3.5 rebounds at +112. We’re anticipating a strong performance from her, so it makes sense that she will cover the line.
Latest Natasha Cloud Player Prop Odds
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Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) is available at -127 to total Under 15.5 points. Should you agree with our verdict that she doesn’t reach this total, you can go under the line.
Latest Alyssa Thomas Player Prop Odds
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Same Game Parlay Picks
Get in the game with a same game parlay. Our picks are Under 163.5 on the total, Mercury to cover the +1.5 spread and Natasha Cloud (Liberty) to have Over 3.5 rebounds.
A same game parlay is a fantastic way of cheering on different selections within the same basketball game. You can predict a number of outcomes and get bigger odds than a single bet. The odds can combine to great effect.
Correct Score Prediction
78
-
81
Mercury
We’re expecting this to be a close contest and we’ll take the Mercury to win 81-78. This is available at massive odds for those that want to have a speculative wager.
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.
Game Could Go Right to the Wire According to the Books
The betting odds about Phoenix Mercury winning is +106, with New York Liberty priced up at -130 to achieve victory. From a percentage point-of-view, the leading WNBA sportsbooks give the visiting team a 56% chance of success.
There is a spread of 1.5 and total points has a line of 163.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you’re going for Under 163.5, this outcome can be backed at -106.
The top basketball sportsbooks offer a wide range of game lines and team props when it comes to most matchups. Make sure you look through all the available options before deciding which bet to place.
Breanna Stewart Favorite to Get Most Points
Breanna Stewart is the favorite to score most points. Odds of -125 can be found for her scoring Over 18.5 points and there is -103 for her to go Under.
Last 5 & H2H
- WNBA: 31/08 2025 Liberty 63 Mercury 80
- WNBA: 26/07 2025 Mercury 76 Liberty 89
- WNBA: 28/06 2025 Liberty 91 Mercury 106
- WNBA: 20/06 2025 Mercury 89 Liberty 81
- WNBA: 27/08 2024 Liberty 84 Mercury 70
- WNBA: 19/06 2024 Liberty 93 Mercury 99
- WNBA: 30/05 2024 Mercury 78 Liberty 81
- WNBA: 19/08 2023 Liberty 85 Mercury 63
- WNBA: 06/07 2023 Mercury 95 Liberty 99
- WNBA: 18/06 2023 Mercury 71 Liberty 89
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
New York Liberty Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 153.30 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 160.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 163.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 77.30 pts and allowed 76.00 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.50 pts and allowed 80.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 160.10 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 157.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 163.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.00 pts and allowed 80.10 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 81.70 pts and allowed 75.70 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
34 | 10 | 3787 | 3373 | 414 | 20-2 | 14-8 | 1W |
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
3
Dream
|
30 | 14 | 3712 | 3378 | 334 | 16-6 | 14-8 | 6W |
|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
|
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
6
Fever
|
24 | 20 | 3734 | 3586 | 148 | 13-9 | 11-11 | 3W |
7
Storm
|
23 | 21 | 3614 | 3524 | 90 | 10-12 | 13-9 | 1W |
8
Valkyries
|
23 | 21 | 3420 | 3359 | 61 | 14-8 | 9-13 | 3L |
9
Sparks
|
21 | 23 | 3769 | 3882 | -113 | 9-13 | 12-10 | 1L |
10
Mystics
|
16 | 28 | 3394 | 3589 | -195 | 10-12 | 6-16 | 10L |
11
Sun
|
11 | 33 | 3337 | 3782 | -445 | 7-15 | 4-18 | 2L |
12
Sky
|
10 | 34 | 3335 | 3777 | -442 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 4L |
13
Wings
|
10 | 34 | 3594 | 3871 | -277 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 1W |
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