Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Sunday

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 32-8 Away) play No. 4 Denver Nuggets (50-32, 26-15 at Home) in game 4 of this NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinal matchup at Ball Arena. The Nuggets lead the series 2-1.

There’s a case for backing the Thunder against the spread in their clash against the Nuggets. The line looks attractive considering you can get odds of -106 when it comes to the favorites at -6.5.

When Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets met on Friday night, there was a 113-104 (OT) victory at Ball Arena for the Nuggets.

Jamal Murray starred with 27 points for the Nuggets, with Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. bagging 22 and 21. Jalen Williams totaled 32 points for the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander racked up 18 points and 13 rebounds, with Chet Holmgren having 18 points and 16 rebounds.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved the Thunder winning six times.

NBA Reg. Season	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	61	16	0.792	118.9	107.5	11.4	33-7	28-9	11-3	38-9	9-1	4W
Nuggets	49	28	0.636	121.4	116.6	4.8	24-13	25-15	9-5	31-16	8-2	7W

View Full Standings

Confirmed Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder lineup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Denver Nuggets lineup: Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks

Bet on Thunder with a -6.5 spread in the NBA showdown. This is an attractive number and we’re confident the favorites can cover this generous line at odds of -106.

The NBA handicappers at Sportsgambler.com check injury updates regularly and combine this with the form guide. We’re also able to consult a database of stats and present the key numbers to our readers.

Key Thunder vs Nuggets stats:

• The -6.5 line has been covered by Thunder in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Thunder in 13 of their last 20 games.

Thunder -6.5 Probability

The sportsbooks make it a 51.5% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our cappers have this figure closer to 60% based on their in-depth research. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

If you want to pimp the odds about the Thunder covering the line, you might consider going down the Bet Builder route and combine this spread pick with other selections.

Our Game Prediction

Thunder -6.5 @ -106 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 10, 17:52). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 Points -106

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) has an average of 20.8 points in the past 5 games at home. This gives us confidence that he might not cover the line and you can wager on Player Points at betting odds of -106.

Latest Nikola Jokic Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 27.5

-120

Under 27.5

-112

Assists

Over 8.5

-100

Under 8.5

-132

Rebounds

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-118

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 Points -108

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) has averaged 28 points in the past 7 games. Should you expect this trend to continue, you can secure odds of -108 that he doesn’t reach this total.

Latest Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 31.5

-122

Under 31.5

-109

Assists

Over 7.5

-137

Under 7.5

+104

Rebounds

Over 6.5

+114

Under 6.5

-149

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Thunder 116 - 105 Nuggets

The Thunder to win by a 116-105 scoreline could be worth a chance. There’s a big potential return if you can land this bet on the money and it should provide some entertainment.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 72% chance of securing victory, Oklahoma City Thunder are favorites for this NBA game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -263. The market suggests that Denver Nuggets are least likely to win at +215.

The spread is currently 7, with the total points line at 228. Basketball fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Total wager. If you want to bet Under 228, there are odds of -110.

The good news is that you can access a huge selection of game lines and team props for most basketball contests. The betting sites have a massive range of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Thunder

-263

Nuggets

+215

Point Spread

Thunder -7

-108

Nuggets +7

-112

Total Points

Under 228

-110

Over 228

-110

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can get -122 that he scores Over 31.5 points or -109 that he goes Under.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 31.5

-122

Under 31.5

-109

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 27.5

-120

Under 27.5

-112

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 22.5

-118

Under 22.5

-114

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 20.5

-108

Under 20.5

-125

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 16.5

-115

Under 16.5

-115

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 15.5

-114

Under 15.5

-118

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 12.5

-118

Under 12.5

-114

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 12.5

-109

Under 12.5

-122

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 10.5

-130

Under 10.5

-103

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 10.5

-122

Under 10.5

-109

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-128

Under 8.5

-104

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 7.5

-118

Under 7.5

-114

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 8.5

-100

Under 8.5

-132

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 7.5

-137

Under 7.5

+104

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-143

Under 5.5

+108

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-152

Under 4.5

+114

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-159

Under 3.5

+120

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+123

Under 3.5

-164

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

-127

Under 2.5

-105

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

+112

Under 2.5

-145

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-109

Under 2.5

-122

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-114

Under 13.5

-118

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 9.5

-112

Under 9.5

-120

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-120

Under 8.5

-110

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 6.5

+114

Under 6.5

-149

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 6.5

-109

Under 6.5

-122

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-125

Under 5.5

-108

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-118

Under 5.5

-114

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-152

Under 4.5

+114

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

+112

Under 4.5

-147

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-114

Under 3.5

-118

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+112

Under 3.5

-147

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-152

Under 2.5

+114

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Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Oklahoma City Thunder Stats

Denver Nuggets Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 222.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 227.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 227.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 227.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 116.20 pts and allowed 106.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 117.00 pts and allowed 110.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 218.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 224.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 227.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 227.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 110.00 pts and allowed 108.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 112.30 pts and allowed 112.50 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.10 (59%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.90 (36%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.30 (81.43%)
• Rebounds: Total 42.6, Offensive 7.70, Defensive 34.90
• Assists: 24.40
• Blocks: 7.00
• Steals: 7.80
• Turnovers : 11.90
• Personal Fouls: 18.00

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.80 (58%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 13.50 (38%)
• Free Throws Made: 16.90 (84.08%)
• Rebounds: Total 41, Offensive 7.90, Defensive 33.10
• Assists: 24.80
• Blocks: 6.00
• Steals: 7.90
• Turnovers : 11.10
• Personal Fouls: 19.50

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 26.20 (53%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.70 (38%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.50 (80.25%)
• Rebounds: Total 39.5, Offensive 7.30, Defensive 32.20
• Assists: 24.90
• Blocks: 4.60
• Steals: 6.60
• Turnovers : 9.20
• Personal Fouls: 18.80

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 24.80 (51%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 14.40 (41%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.50 (78.63%)
• Rebounds: Total 41.6, Offensive 7.80, Defensive 33.80
• Assists: 26.80
• Blocks: 5.20
• Steals: 6.20
• Turnovers : 11.10
• Personal Fouls: 16.90

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets Confirmed Lineup

0 Christian Braun

1 Michael Porter Jr.

15 Nikola Jokic

27 Jamal Murray

32 Aaron Gordon

Oklahoma City Thunder Confirmed Lineup

2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

5 Luguentz Dort

7 Chet Holmgren

8 Jalen Williams

55 Isaiah Hartenstein

NBA Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Celtics	52	25	0.675	114.6	107.1	7.5	26-11	26-14	9-5	33-15	8-2	2W
Knicks	50	28	0.641	116.9	110.4	6.5	28-9	22-19	12-3	32-16	7-3	2W
76ers	43	34	0.558	116.5	116.5	0	22-17	21-17	9-7	25-24	7-3	2W
Raptors	43	34	0.558	114.5	112.1	2.4	21-17	22-17	4-10	30-17	5-5	1W
Nets	18	59	0.234	106.1	115.8	-9.7	10-28	8-31	3-12	12-34	1-9	2L

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	56	21	0.727	117.5	109.6	7.9	31-9	25-12	10-4	35-12	8-2	2W
Cavaliers	48	29	0.623	119.3	115.2	4.1	24-14	24-15	10-5	30-18	7-3	1W
Bucks	30	47	0.39	110.5	116.9	-6.4	17-22	13-25	9-6	20-28	2-8	2L
Bulls	29	48	0.377	116.2	121.6	-5.4	18-21	11-27	4-12	17-31	2-8	6L
Pacers	18	59	0.234	112.6	120.8	-8.2	11-27	7-32	4-10	14-34	3-7	1L

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Hawks	45	33	0.577	118.6	115.9	2.7	23-16	22-17	9-6	26-22	8-2	4W
Hornets	42	36	0.538	116.4	111.3	5.1	21-19	21-17	11-5	25-24	8-2	3W
Magic	41	36	0.532	115.4	115.4	0	24-16	17-20	9-8	24-25	3-7	1W
Heat	40	37	0.519	120.4	118.2	2.2	24-15	16-22	7-7	24-23	2-8	1L
Wizards	17	59	0.224	112.7	124.3	-11.6	11-27	6-32	2-12	11-35	1-9	4L

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	61	16	0.792	118.9	107.5	11.4	33-7	28-9	11-3	38-9	9-1	4W
Nuggets	49	28	0.636	121.4	116.6	4.8	24-13	25-15	9-5	31-16	8-2	7W
Timberwolves	46	31	0.597	117.6	114.1	3.5	25-14	21-17	9-7	29-21	5-5	2L
Trail Blazers	40	38	0.513	115.4	115.9	-0.5	22-17	18-21	7-8	27-21	8-2	3W
Jazz	21	57	0.269	117.2	125.6	-8.4	13-27	8-30	1-14	11-37	1-9	8L

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Lakers	50	27	0.649	116.5	115	1.5	26-12	24-15	8-7	30-17	8-2	1L
Suns	42	35	0.545	112.8	111.3	1.5	24-15	18-20	10-6	27-21	3-7	2L
Clippers	39	38	0.506	113.7	112.6	1.1	21-17	18-21	8-6	22-25	5-5	2L
Warriors	36	41	0.468	114.8	115.1	-0.3	21-17	15-24	6-6	23-24	4-6	3L
Kings	21	57	0.269	110.9	120.9	-10	14-25	7-32	3-10	13-35	4-6	2W

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Spurs	59	18	0.766	119.6	111.1	8.5	29-7	30-11	12-3	34-14	10-0	11W
Rockets	48	29	0.623	114.8	109.9	4.9	28-10	20-19	9-6	26-22	7-3	5W
Grizzlies	25	52	0.325	114.8	119.6	-4.8	14-26	11-26	6-9	19-30	2-8	3L
Pelicans	25	53	0.321	114.9	119.4	-4.5	16-23	9-30	7-9	16-33	3-7	7L
Mavericks	24	53	0.312	113.6	119.3	-5.7	14-25	10-28	4-11	13-34	2-8	3L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	56	21	0.727	117.5	109.6	7.9	31-9	25-12	10-4	35-12	8-2	2W
Celtics	52	25	0.675	114.6	107.1	7.5	26-11	26-14	9-5	33-15	8-2	2W
Knicks	50	28	0.641	116.9	110.4	6.5	28-9	22-19	12-3	32-16	7-3	2W
Cavaliers	48	29	0.623	119.3	115.2	4.1	24-14	24-15	10-5	30-18	7-3	1W
Hawks	45	33	0.577	118.6	115.9	2.7	23-16	22-17	9-6	26-22	8-2	4W
76ers	43	34	0.558	116.5	116.5	0	22-17	21-17	9-7	25-24	7-3	2W
Raptors	43	34	0.558	114.5	112.1	2.4	21-17	22-17	4-10	30-17	5-5	1W
Hornets	42	36	0.538	116.4	111.3	5.1	21-19	21-17	11-5	25-24	8-2	3W
Magic	41	36	0.532	115.4	115.4	0	24-16	17-20	9-8	24-25	3-7	1W
Heat	40	37	0.519	120.4	118.2	2.2	24-15	16-22	7-7	24-23	2-8	1L
Bucks	30	47	0.39	110.5	116.9	-6.4	17-22	13-25	9-6	20-28	2-8	2L
Bulls	29	48	0.377	116.2	121.6	-5.4	18-21	11-27	4-12	17-31	2-8	6L
Pacers	18	59	0.234	112.6	120.8	-8.2	11-27	7-32	4-10	14-34	3-7	1L
Nets	18	59	0.234	106.1	115.8	-9.7	10-28	8-31	3-12	12-34	1-9	2L
Wizards	17	59	0.224	112.7	124.3	-11.6	11-27	6-32	2-12	11-35	1-9	4L

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	61	16	0.792	118.9	107.5	11.4	33-7	28-9	11-3	38-9	9-1	4W
Spurs	59	18	0.766	119.6	111.1	8.5	29-7	30-11	12-3	34-14	10-0	11W
Lakers	50	27	0.649	116.5	115	1.5	26-12	24-15	8-7	30-17	8-2	1L
Nuggets	49	28	0.636	121.4	116.6	4.8	24-13	25-15	9-5	31-16	8-2	7W
Rockets	48	29	0.623	114.8	109.9	4.9	28-10	20-19	9-6	26-22	7-3	5W
Timberwolves	46	31	0.597	117.6	114.1	3.5	25-14	21-17	9-7	29-21	5-5	2L
Suns	42	35	0.545	112.8	111.3	1.5	24-15	18-20	10-6	27-21	3-7	2L
Trail Blazers	40	38	0.513	115.4	115.9	-0.5	22-17	18-21	7-8	27-21	8-2	3W
Clippers	39	38	0.506	113.7	112.6	1.1	21-17	18-21	8-6	22-25	5-5	2L
Warriors	36	41	0.468	114.8	115.1	-0.3	21-17	15-24	6-6	23-24	4-6	3L
Grizzlies	25	52	0.325	114.8	119.6	-4.8	14-26	11-26	6-9	19-30	2-8	3L
Pelicans	25	53	0.321	114.9	119.4	-4.5	16-23	9-30	7-9	16-33	3-7	7L
Mavericks	24	53	0.312	113.6	119.3	-5.7	14-25	10-28	4-11	13-34	2-8	3L
Kings	21	57	0.269	110.9	120.9	-10	14-25	7-32	3-10	13-35	4-6	2W
Jazz	21	57	0.269	117.2	125.6	-8.4	13-27	8-30	1-14	11-37	1-9	8L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	61	16	0.792	118.9	107.5	11.4	33-7	28-9	11-3	38-9	9-1	4W
Spurs	59	18	0.766	119.6	111.1	8.5	29-7	30-11	12-3	34-14	10-0	11W
Pistons	56	21	0.727	117.5	109.6	7.9	31-9	25-12	10-4	35-12	8-2	2W
Celtics	52	25	0.675	114.6	107.1	7.5	26-11	26-14	9-5	33-15	8-2	2W
Lakers	50	27	0.649	116.5	115	1.5	26-12	24-15	8-7	30-17	8-2	1L
Knicks	50	28	0.641	116.9	110.4	6.5	28-9	22-19	12-3	32-16	7-3	2W
Nuggets	49	28	0.636	121.4	116.6	4.8	24-13	25-15	9-5	31-16	8-2	7W
Cavaliers	48	29	0.623	119.3	115.2	4.1	24-14	24-15	10-5	30-18	7-3	1W
Rockets	48	29	0.623	114.8	109.9	4.9	28-10	20-19	9-6	26-22	7-3	5W
Timberwolves	46	31	0.597	117.6	114.1	3.5	25-14	21-17	9-7	29-21	5-5	2L
Hawks	45	33	0.577	118.6	115.9	2.7	23-16	22-17	9-6	26-22	8-2	4W
76ers	43	34	0.558	116.5	116.5	0	22-17	21-17	9-7	25-24	7-3	2W
Raptors	43	34	0.558	114.5	112.1	2.4	21-17	22-17	4-10	30-17	5-5	1W
Suns	42	35	0.545	112.8	111.3	1.5	24-15	18-20	10-6	27-21	3-7	2L
Hornets	42	36	0.538	116.4	111.3	5.1	21-19	21-17	11-5	25-24	8-2	3W
Magic	41	36	0.532	115.4	115.4	0	24-16	17-20	9-8	24-25	3-7	1W
Heat	40	37	0.519	120.4	118.2	2.2	24-15	16-22	7-7	24-23	2-8	1L
Trail Blazers	40	38	0.513	115.4	115.9	-0.5	22-17	18-21	7-8	27-21	8-2	3W
Clippers	39	38	0.506	113.7	112.6	1.1	21-17	18-21	8-6	22-25	5-5	2L
Warriors	36	41	0.468	114.8	115.1	-0.3	21-17	15-24	6-6	23-24	4-6	3L
Bucks	30	47	0.39	110.5	116.9	-6.4	17-22	13-25	9-6	20-28	2-8	2L
Bulls	29	48	0.377	116.2	121.6	-5.4	18-21	11-27	4-12	17-31	2-8	6L
Grizzlies	25	52	0.325	114.8	119.6	-4.8	14-26	11-26	6-9	19-30	2-8	3L
Pelicans	25	53	0.321	114.9	119.4	-4.5	16-23	9-30	7-9	16-33	3-7	7L
Mavericks	24	53	0.312	113.6	119.3	-5.7	14-25	10-28	4-11	13-34	2-8	3L
Kings	21	57	0.269	110.9	120.9	-10	14-25	7-32	3-10	13-35	4-6	2W
Jazz	21	57	0.269	117.2	125.6	-8.4	13-27	8-30	1-14	11-37	1-9	8L
Nets	18	59	0.234	106.1	115.8	-9.7	10-28	8-31	3-12	12-34	1-9	2L
Pacers	18	59	0.234	112.6	120.8	-8.2	11-27	7-32	4-10	14-34	3-7	1L
Wizards	17	59	0.224	112.7	124.3	-11.6	11-27	6-32	2-12	11-35	1-9	4L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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