Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 Oct 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Mercury vs Aces

The Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Las Vegas Aces in Game 1 of this this WNBA Finals series at Michelob Ultra Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 20:00 on Friday, October 3. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

We Could See Lots of Points Scored

You can get -114 that there are Over 159.5 points and there’s lots of juice in those odds. The Mercury and the Aces should be able to keep the score ticking for our prediction to win.

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8 Aces Victories in Previous 10 H2H Clashes

The Phoenix Mercury punched their ticket to the WNBA Finals with a 3-1 semifinal series win over the Minnesota Lynx, clinching it with an 86-81 home victory in Game 4 at PHX Arena.

The Las Vegas Aces advanced to the WNBA Finals by winning their semifinal series against the Indiana Fever 3-2, sealing it with a 107-98 OT home win in Game 5 at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was the Aces who came out on top when they last played the Mercury. At Michelob Ultra Arena, a 83-61 win was recorded. The Aces have racked up three straight victories over the Mercury. On the head-to-head front, they have won 8 of the past 10.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks

Join us as we dissect the best Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces betting tips — from our expert match prediction and correct score advice to top player prop insights and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The best betting angle could be wagering on the totals for this WNBA game. Our pick is for Over 159.5 points to be scored at odds of -114 which makes lots of appeal.

To deliver the best possible basketball predictions, we start by locking in the team news and taking time to review the latest form. There’s also no shortage of data to crunch from the most up-to-date WNBA stats available.

Key Mercury vs Aces stats:

• The 159.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Mercury games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 13 of the last 20 Mercury games on the road.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Mercury games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Aces games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Aces games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Aces games.

Over 159.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks make it a 53.2% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our experts have this probability close to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

Secure more desirable odds by moving the line when you place an Over bet. You can choose from a range of options on the Totals until you’re happy with your wager.

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Best Bet

Over 159.5 Points @ -114 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Kahleah Copper Over 16.5 Points +102

Kahleah Copper (Mercury) can be backed to register Over 16.5 points at +102. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Kahleah Copper Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

+102

Under 16.5

-132

Assists

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

Rebounds

Over 3.5

+107

Under 3.5

-139

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Satou Sabally Over 16.5 Points -108

Satou Sabally (Mercury) can be backed to rack up Over 16.5 points at -108. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

-108

Under 16.5

-120

Assists

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-104

Rebounds

Over 6.5

-135

Under 6.5

+105

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Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 79 - 85 Aces

Correct score betting might be tough to predict but there’s a tasty potential return if you get it right. We’ll try the Aces to achieve a 85-79 victory at huge odds.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Giving Aces Plenty of Respect

With the sportsbooks giving them a 61% probability of winning this WNBA game, Las Vegas Aces might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -154 Moneyline betting odds. Phoenix Mercury are the underdogs at +126 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

There is a spread of 3 and total points has a line of 159.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you want to wager Over 159.5, there are odds of -114.

Women's hoops bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Mercury

+126

Aces

-154

Point Spread

Mercury +3

-108

Aces -3

-112

Total Points

Under 159.5

-106

Over 159.5

-114

A'ja Wilson Favorite to Score the Most Baskets

A'ja Wilson is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -132 to score Over 25.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at +102.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 25.5

-132

Under 25.5

+102

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 16.5

-130

Under 16.5

-100

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-108

Under 16.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-105

Under 16.5

-123

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 16.5

+102

Under 16.5

-132

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 10.5

-109

Under 10.5

-119

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-110

Under 8.5

-118

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 8.5

-108

Under 8.5

-120

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 8.5

-106

Under 8.5

-122

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-111

Under 7.5

-116

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+107

Under 9.5

-139

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 6.5

+118

Under 6.5

-154

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-143

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+164

Under 3.5

-217

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 2.5

-169

Under 2.5

+129

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-104

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-100

Under 2.5

-130

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 11.5

+106

Under 11.5

-137

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-102

Under 9.5

-127

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-135

Under 6.5

+105

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+126

Under 5.5

-164

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 5.5

+117

Under 5.5

-152

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 5.5

+104

Under 5.5

-135

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+107

Under 3.5

-139

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

+139

Under 3.5

-182

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 3.5

+178

Under 3.5

-238

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+171

Under 3.5

-227

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 160.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 163.30 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 159.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 159.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.50 pts and allowed 80.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 81.50 pts and allowed 81.80 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 168.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 162.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 159.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 159.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 89.10 pts and allowed 78.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 87.20 pts and allowed 75.20 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
3  Dream	30	14	3712	3378	334	16-6	14-8	6W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W
6  Fever	24	20	3734	3586	148	13-9	11-11	3W
7  Storm	23	21	3614	3524	90	10-12	13-9	1W
8  Valkyries	23	21	3420	3359	61	14-8	9-13	3L
9  Sparks	21	23	3769	3882	-113	9-13	12-10	1L
10  Mystics	16	28	3394	3589	-195	10-12	6-16	10L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L
12  Sky	10	34	3335	3777	-442	6-16	4-18	4L
13  Wings	10	34	3594	3871	-277	6-16	4-18	1W