Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks & Odds | 03 Oct 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

The Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Las Vegas Aces in Game 1 of this this WNBA Finals series at Michelob Ultra Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 20:00 on Friday, October 3. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

You can get -114 that there are Over 159.5 points and there’s lots of juice in those odds. The Mercury and the Aces should be able to keep the score ticking for our prediction to win.

The Phoenix Mercury punched their ticket to the WNBA Finals with a 3-1 semifinal series win over the Minnesota Lynx, clinching it with an 86-81 home victory in Game 4 at PHX Arena.

The Las Vegas Aces advanced to the WNBA Finals by winning their semifinal series against the Indiana Fever 3-2, sealing it with a 107-98 OT home win in Game 5 at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was the Aces who came out on top when they last played the Mercury. At Michelob Ultra Arena, a 83-61 win was recorded. The Aces have racked up three straight victories over the Mercury. On the head-to-head front, they have won 8 of the past 10.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Aces	4	1	455	424	31	0-1	4-0	4W
12  Mercury	2	3	443	430	13	1-2	1-1	1L

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks

Join us as we dissect the best Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces betting tips — from our expert match prediction and correct score advice to top player prop insights and a ready-made bet builder.

Game Prediction

The best betting angle could be wagering on the totals for this WNBA game. Our pick is for Over 159.5 points to be scored at odds of -114 which makes lots of appeal.

To deliver the best possible basketball predictions, we start by locking in the team news and taking time to review the latest form. There’s also no shortage of data to crunch from the most up-to-date WNBA stats available.

Key Mercury vs Aces stats:

• The 159.5 line has been covered in the last 3 Mercury games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 13 of the last 20 Mercury games on the road.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Mercury games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 3 of the last 5 Aces games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 Aces games.
• The 159.5 line has been covered in the last 2 Aces games.

Over 159.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks make it a 53.2% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our experts have this probability close to 60%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

Secure more desirable odds by moving the line when you place an Over bet. You can choose from a range of options on the Totals until you’re happy with your wager.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 159.5 Points @ -114 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 3, 00:06). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Kahleah Copper Over 16.5 Points +102

Kahleah Copper (Mercury) can be backed to register Over 16.5 points at +102. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Kahleah Copper Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 15.5

-125

Under 15.5

-103

Assists

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-185

Rebounds

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-149

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Satou Sabally Over 16.5 Points -108

Satou Sabally (Mercury) can be backed to rack up Over 16.5 points at -108. We’re happy to take this Player Points prop bet as she is capable of a big performance.

Latest Satou Sabally Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

-110

Under 16.5

-118

Assists

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-104

Rebounds

Over 6.5

-119

Under 6.5

-109

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 79 - 85 Aces

Correct score betting might be tough to predict but there’s a tasty potential return if you get it right. We’ll try the Aces to achieve a 85-79 victory at huge odds.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 62% probability of winning this WNBA game, Las Vegas Aces might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -164 Moneyline betting odds. Phoenix Mercury are the underdogs at +134 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

There is a spread of 3.5 and total points has a line of 162.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. If you want to wager Over 162.5, there are odds of -110.

Women's hoops bettors are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of game lines and team props which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value wagers.

Moneyline

Mercury

+134

Aces

-164

Point Spread

Mercury +3.5

-112

Aces -3.5

-108

Total Points

Under 162.5

-110

Over 162.5

-110

A'ja Wilson is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -123 to score Over 25.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -104.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 25.5

-123

Under 25.5

-104

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 16.5

-130

Under 16.5

-100

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-110

Under 16.5

-118

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-125

Under 15.5

-103

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-123

Under 15.5

-105

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 10.5

-111

Under 10.5

-116

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-110

Under 8.5

-118

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 8.5

-103

Under 8.5

-125

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 8.5

+103

Under 8.5

-133

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 7.5

-109

Under 7.5

-119

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+115

Under 9.5

-149

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 6.5

+113

Under 6.5

-147

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+105

Under 5.5

-135

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+164

Under 3.5

-217

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 2.5

-169

Under 2.5

+129

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-104

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-185

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 11.5

-108

Under 11.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+103

Under 9.5

-133

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 6.5

-119

Under 6.5

-109

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+130

Under 5.5

-169

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 5.5

+122

Under 5.5

-159

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 5.5

+104

Under 5.5

-135

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-149

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

+124

Under 3.5

-161

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 3.5

+178

Under 3.5

-238

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+171

Under 3.5

-227

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for basketball bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Field Goal. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +8.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -8.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 165.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 162.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 167.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 83.10 pts and allowed 82.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.60 pts and allowed 82.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 170.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 167.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 167.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 87.80 pts and allowed 82.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 89.50 pts and allowed 78.30 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Aces	4	1	455	424	31	0-1	4-0	4W
2  Sky	3	1	336	316	20	0-0	3-1	1W
3  Liberty	3	1	400	348	52	1-0	2-1	1W
4  Dream	2	1	252	247	5	0-1	2-0	1L
5  Valkyries	2	1	249	228	21	1-1	1-0	1L
6  Tempo	3	2	450	426	24	1-1	2-1	2W
7  Lynx	2	2	347	347	0	0-2	2-0	1L
8  Wings	2	2	357	340	17	1-2	1-0	1W
9  Mystics	2	2	334	357	-23	0-1	2-1	1L
10  Fever	2	2	382	367	15	1-2	1-0	1W
11  Fire	2	2	346	376	-30	2-2	0-0	1W
12  Mercury	2	3	443	430	13	1-2	1-1	1L
13  Sparks	1	3	351	393	-42	1-3	0-0	1L
14  Storm	1	3	320	348	-28	0-1	1-2	2L
15  Sun	0	5	402	477	-75	0-3	0-2	5L

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