South Florida vs Louisville Prediction, Picks & Odds | 19 Mar 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: South Florida vs Louisville

No. 11 South Florida Bulls square off against No. 6 Louisville Cardinals in this NCAA Tournament First Round matchup at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with tip-off scheduled for 13:30 on Thursday, March 19.

We’re confident about the number of points to be scored when South Florida and Louisville take to the court. Therefore, the prediction is Under 163.5 points which is available at -105.

The South Florida Bulls (25-8, 1st in the American) are coming off a 70-55 home victory against the Wichita State Shockers.

The Louisville Cardinals (23-10, 6th in the ACC) lost their last game, falling 78-73 on the road to the Miami Hurricanes.

NCAAB Regular Season	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
South Florida	25-8	2895	2492	403	16-4	9-4	11W
Louisville	23-10	2797	2382	415	16-2	7-8	1L

View Full Standings

South Florida vs Louisville Prediction & Picks

Step into South Florida vs Louisville with confidence, armed with our expert match prediction, likely scoreline and a custom-built bet builder for maximum value.

Game Prediction

We’re going for a modest total for this upcoming college contest. Under 163.5 points could be on the money and our pick is currently available at -105.

Our expert basketball picks always start with checking the latest team news and understanding how it might impact the matchup. From there, we dive into the most valuable college hoops stats to uncover the insights that matter most.

Key South Florida vs Louisville stats:

• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 USF games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 USF games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 3 USF games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 16 of the last 20 Louisville games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Louisville games.
• The 163.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Louisville games.

Under 163.5 Probability

The latest odds at the best betting apps suggest our pick carries a 51.3% chance of winning. Based on our in-depth research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 60%. This college basketball wager can therefore be backed with confidence.

Those looking for larger odds can include an Under selection with other picks when they place a Bet Builder. A bigger potential payout could be on the cards with this bet.

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Our Game Prediction

Under 163.5 Points @ -105 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 18, 18:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

South Florida 78 - 79 Louisville

Don’t pass up the opportunity to have a speculative wager on Louisville to achieve a 79-78 victory. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams.

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South Florida vs Louisville Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Louisville have the shortest price to win this college game, with the sportsbooks giving them a 67% probability due to their -200 Moneyline betting odds. At +164, South Florida are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The current spread is 4.5 and the total points line is 163.5. A Total wager relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. If you’re going for Under 163.5, this outcome can be backed at -105.

Consider every angle when placing your college hoops bets. The top basketball betting sites offer a huge selection of game lines and team props, and it’s all about finding a wager that fits your prediction of the game.

Moneyline

USF

+164

Louisville

-200

Point Spread

USF +4.5

-110

Louisville -4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 163.5

-105

Over 163.5

-115

Prop bets don’t involve betting on a team to win and instead might look at a player’s individual performance. For example, the number of Points they might score or the number of Assists they might have.

It’s good to consider all wagering options when it comes to college basketball and micro betting can be an exciting way to get involved in the action. When everything goes in-game, consider whether the next shot will be a Two or a Three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

South Florida Stats

Louisville Stats

Moneyline

• 10 wins and 0 defeats in the last 10 games

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in the last 10 games

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 148.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 163.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.60 pts and allowed 66.50 pts in the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 158.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 163.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.50 pts and allowed 75.70 pts in the last 10 games

NCAAB Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	32-2	2798	2147	651	21-0	11-2	11W
Virginia	29-5	2742	2326	416	19-1	10-4	1L
Miami	25-8	2704	2349	355	16-4	9-4	1L
North Carolina	24-8	2553	2282	271	19-1	5-7	2L
Clemson	24-10	2521	2269	252	16-3	8-7	1L
Louisville	23-10	2797	2382	415	16-2	7-8	1L
California	21-11	2492	2344	148	17-4	4-7	2L
Stanford	20-12	2431	2326	105	12-7	8-5	1L
NC State	20-13	2762	2525	237	13-7	7-6	1L
SMU	20-13	2779	2561	218	17-3	3-10	1L
Virginia Tech	19-13	2521	2396	125	15-4	4-9	2L
Florida State	18-15	2652	2572	80	12-8	6-7	1L
Wake Forest	17-16	2602	2543	59	12-6	5-10	1L
Syracuse	15-17	2400	2376	24	12-6	3-11	6L
Notre Dame	13-18	2308	2335	-27	11-7	2-11	2L
Pittsburgh	13-20	2327	2370	-43	8-10	5-10	1L
Boston College	11-20	2090	2191	-101	10-10	1-10	1W
Georgia Tech	11-20	2287	2400	-113	10-10	1-10	12L

American Athletic Conference	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Tulsa	26-7	2824	2409	415	15-2	11-5	1L
South Florida	25-8	2895	2492	403	16-4	9-4	11W
Wichita State	22-11	2562	2324	238	15-5	7-6	1L
UAB	20-12	2535	2361	174	9-10	11-2	1L
North Texas	19-14	2341	2225	116	13-5	6-9	1L
Florida Atlantic	18-15	2596	2453	143	12-6	6-9	1L
Tulane	18-15	2389	2493	-104	10-9	8-6	1L
Charlotte	17-17	2492	2530	-38	12-7	5-10	1L
Temple	16-16	2366	2264	102	10-7	6-9	2L
Rice	13-18	2291	2311	-20	9-8	4-10	1W
Memphis	13-19	2407	2454	-47	10-8	3-11	1L
East Carolina	11-20	2217	2401	-184	7-12	4-8	2L
UTSA	5-25	2084	2422	-338	2-12	3-13	5L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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