SMU vs Duke Prediction, Picks & Odds | 10 Jan 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: SMU vs Duke

The SMU Mustangs battle the Duke Blue Devils, with tip-off scheduled for 14:00 on Saturday, January 10.

Let’s go for Duke at a generous -12.5 on the spread. We like this pick and are able to get -105 that the favorites beat SMU by a sizeable margin.

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SMU Mustangs were defeated in their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 74-70 reverse against Clemson Tigers.

Duke Blue Devils got the win in their last game. A 84-73 triumph occurred on the road when meeting Louisville Cardinals.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Duke beat SMU when the teams last met. It was a 89-62 scoreline.

NCAAB	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	14-1	1306	990	316	9-0	5-1	3W
SMU	12-3	1351	1151	200	11-0	1-3	1L

View Full Standings

SMU vs Duke Prediction & Picks

We dive into the best SMU vs Duke betting angles, including a key match prediction, our correct score forecast and a value-focused bet builder. Read on for the full breakdown.

Game Prediction

Our pick is that Duke will get the better of their opponents by a significant margin in this college matchup. With this in mind, let’s go for them on the spread at -12.5 which is currently available at odds of -105.

Our basketball predictions are rooted in solid team news and up-to-date form for each team. We also dig deep to uncover the most relevant stats that help guide and strengthen our college hoops picks.

Key SMU vs Duke stats:

• The -12.5 line has been covered by Duke in 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -12.5 line has been covered by Duke in 12 of their last 20 games at home.

Duke -12.5 Probability

Based on the odds from the top betting sites, there’s a 51.3% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

There’s often the option to sell points and that allows you to leverage a bigger potential return. Conversely, buying points will give you a less-risky bet but smaller odds.

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Our Game Prediction

Duke -12.5 @ -105 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

SMU 68 - 85 Duke

For those looking to get more bang for their buck, consider a correct score wager on Duke. Backing them to win 85-68 means you can land a potential monster return.

SMU vs Duke Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Duke are massive -1000 favorites. They are regarded as 91% likely to win this college game judging by the sportsbooks’ latest Moneyline odds. At +660, SMU are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

12.5 is the spread and 158.5 is the total points line. A Total wager relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. Those expecting a low total can back Under 158.5 at -110.

Whether you’re betting pre-game or in-game, the top basketball sportsbooks serve up a wide range of team props and game lines to choose from. The options are nearly endless, and it’s great to have so much variety.

Moneyline

SMU

+660

Duke

-1000

Point Spread

SMU +12.5

-106

Duke -12.5

-114

Total Points

Under 158.5

-110

Over 158.5

-110

We’re fond of player props as an alternative to betting on the game result. The gambling sites will have Points, Assists, Three-Pointers, Rebounds and Steals among the choices and you can take a particular view.

There are always opportunities to enjoy college basketball micro betting. It’s generally the case that you will find player and team props in-game and bettors can use their insight to wager on outcomes such as if the next shot will be a Two or Three-Pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

SMU Stats

Duke Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +12.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games
• +12.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -12.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games
• -12.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 167.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 151.60 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 157.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 157.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 89.10 pts and allowed 78.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 75.30 pts and allowed 76.30 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 153.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 148.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 157.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 157.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 84.40 pts and allowed 68.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 85.70 pts and allowed 62.80 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAB Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	14-1	1306	990	316	9-0	5-1	3W
Miami	13-2	1320	1026	294	10-1	3-1	8W
Virginia	13-2	1291	1014	277	10-0	3-2	2W
North Carolina	13-2	1220	989	231	11-0	2-2	1L
Clemson	13-3	1247	1055	192	10-0	3-3	6W
Stanford	13-3	1253	1131	122	8-3	5-0	2W
California	13-3	1282	1112	170	13-1	0-2	1L
SMU	12-3	1351	1151	200	11-0	1-3	1L
Virginia Tech	12-4	1321	1179	142	10-1	2-3	2L
Louisville	11-4	1338	1052	286	8-1	3-3	2L
NC State	11-5	1358	1142	216	9-3	2-2	1W
Syracuse	10-5	1113	979	134	8-2	2-3	1W
Notre Dame	10-5	1115	1001	114	8-1	2-4	1L
Wake Forest	10-6	1306	1195	111	8-3	2-3	1L
Georgia Tech	10-6	1211	1134	77	10-3	0-3	1L
Florida State	7-8	1258	1188	70	7-4	0-4	2L
Pittsburgh	7-8	1099	1030	69	6-4	1-4	2L
Boston College	7-8	1042	1011	31	6-6	1-2	2L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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