SMU vs Louisville Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Mar 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: SMU vs Louisville

The SMU Mustangs square off against the Louisville Cardinals, with tip-off scheduled for 14:30 on Wednesday, March 11.

Get with Louisville with a -6.5 spread. We’re backing the favorites at -110 to enjoy a solid win when they go head to head with SMU.

SMU Mustangs claimed a victory in their previous game. A 86-69 home win occurred against Syracuse Orange.

Louisville Cardinals won last time out by a 92-89 scoreline. It was on the road against Miami Hurricanes.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The last matchup between SMU and Louisville saw the former win. It was a 95-85 scoreline. The past 3 H2H games have seen Louisville land two wins.

NCAAB	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Louisville	22-9	2662	2246	416	15-2	7-7	2W
SMU	20-12	2721	2499	222	17-3	3-9	1W

View Full Standings

SMU vs Louisville Prediction & Picks

Our SMU vs Louisville betting preview covers everything you need, including a key match prediction, correct score insight and a value-packed bet builder recommendation.

Game Prediction

The value pick is for Louisville to cover the spread in this college contest. The -6.5 line looks attractive at -110 and we’re expecting a bigger margin of victory for the favorites.

Our expert college basketball handicappers study recent form and take injuries into account when assessing each matchup. Before delivering a verdict, we combine that insight with the latest stats to strengthen our analysis.

Key SMU vs Louisville stats:

• The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 6 consecutive games at home.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +6.5 line hasn’t been covered by SMU in 3 of their last 5 games.
• The +6.5 line hasn’t been covered by SMU in 2 consecutive games on the road.
• The -6.5 line has been covered by Louisville in 2 of their last 3 games against SMU.

Louisville -6.5 Probability

The best sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 52.4% likelihood of this pick delivering a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

There are options to buy and sell different amounts of points and effectively choose the line which makes the most appeal. It all comes down to how safe or risky you want to play things.

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Our Game Prediction

Louisville -6.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 11, 08:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

SMU 75 - 84 Louisville

Should you want to go for a selection at massive odds, head to the correct score lines where Louisville can be backed speculatively to achieve a 84-75 victory.

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SMU vs Louisville Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With the sportsbooks giving them a 72% probability of winning this college game, Louisville might be a popular parlay pick. That is reflected in their -263 Moneyline betting odds. SMU are the underdogs at +215 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The spread is currently 6.5, with the total points line at 163.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball bets. If you’re going for Under 163.5, this outcome can be backed at -110.

Whether you are betting pre-game or in-game, you can feast on a wide range of team props and game lines at the top basketball sportsbooks. The selections are practically endless, and it’s fantastic to have so many options.

Moneyline

SMU

+215

Louisville

-263

Point Spread

SMU +6.5

-110

Louisville -6.5

-110

Total Points

Under 163.5

-110

Over 163.5

-110

If you have a view on Rebounds, Steals, Blocks, Assists or Points, then the player props could be an option. It’s a fantastic way of betting on a player to perform well and the gambling sites provide lots of choice.

For those looking to enjoy a thrilling in-game wager, college basketball micro betting could be up your street. You are now able to wager on the Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

SMU Stats

Louisville Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 2 wins and 8 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +6.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -6.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• -6.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 160.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 159.00 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 163.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 163.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.90 pts and allowed 78.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 77.30 pts and allowed 81.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 162.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 154.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 163.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 163.5 at Home: Covered in 1 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 85.40 pts and allowed 76.60 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 84.30 pts and allowed 69.80 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAB Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	29-2	2571	1937	634	18-0	11-2	8W
Virginia	27-4	2507	2116	391	17-1	10-3	2W
Miami	24-7	2564	2192	372	15-4	9-3	1L
North Carolina	24-7	2474	2202	272	19-0	5-7	1L
Clemson	22-9	2309	2055	254	15-3	7-6	1W
Louisville	22-9	2662	2246	416	15-2	7-7	2W
California	21-10	2403	2249	154	17-4	4-6	1L
SMU	20-12	2721	2499	222	17-3	3-9	1W
Stanford	20-12	2431	2326	105	12-7	8-5	1L
NC State	19-12	2590	2356	234	12-7	7-5	4L
Virginia Tech	19-13	2521	2396	125	15-4	4-9	2L
Florida State	17-14	2478	2403	75	11-8	6-6	3W
Wake Forest	17-15	2540	2472	68	12-6	5-9	2W
Syracuse	15-17	2400	2376	24	12-6	3-11	6L
Notre Dame	13-18	2308	2335	-27	11-7	2-11	2L
Pittsburgh	13-19	2239	2272	-33	8-10	5-9	2W
Boston College	11-20	2090	2191	-101	10-10	1-10	1W
Georgia Tech	11-20	2287	2400	-113	10-10	1-10	12L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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