Philadelphia Union vs New York City Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Oct 2025

MLS Betting Preview: Philadelphia Union vs New York City

Philadelphia Union host New York City in this MLS fixture at Subaru Park, with kick-off set for 19:30 on Saturday 4 October. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, team news and both predicted and confirmed lineups.

Back Over 2.5 Goals With Confidence

Betting Over 2.5 in the Total Goals market at -161 looks to be the way forward based on the available stats. We anticipate three goals or more to be recorded in the contest between Philadelphia and New York City.

Looks like it could go over 2.5 goals? Get the current BetMGM promo code and take a moment to browse our comprehensive site review before you bet.

City Claimed 1-0 Win in Previous H2H

League leaders Philadelphia Union have triumphed in back-to-back MLS games. The latest was away where D.C. United were beaten 6-0 at Audi Field. Bradley Carnell's men had 46% possession and totalled seven shots on target, with Indiana Vassilev able to score two goals.

New York City FC have won four road games on the spin, triumphing 3-2 in their previous appearance. This was against New York Red Bulls at Sports Illustrated Stadium. The Pigeons enjoyed 47% possession and five shots on goal, with Nicolas Fernandez, Andres Perea and Thiago Martins finding the net.

Head-to-Head Statistics

City won the last clash between the pair. Enjoying a 1-0 home triumph when facing Philadelphia at Citi Field. The 10 past H2H meetings have involved six Philadelphia victories, one draw and three City wins.

MLS		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Philadelphia	32	19	6	7	56	33	23	56:33	63
5	NYCFC	32	17	5	10	49	41	8	49:41	56

View Full Table

Philadelphia have 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.9 goals from 4.7 shots on goal and 10.0 attempts. The Union have averaged 48.8% possession and 5.1 corners per game, with their opponents scoring 1.2 goals from 4.1 shots on goal, 8.2 attempts and 4.1 corners.

Bruno Damiani, Indiana Vassilev, Mikael Uhre and Tai Baribo are the leading goalscorers with 3, while Milan Iloski has 2. The leading assistor is Milan Iloski with 4.

City have won 7, lost 2 and drawn 1, with an average of 2.0 goals from 4.9 shots on goal and 8.5 attempts. Pascal Jansen's team have averaged 53.7% possession, 4.4 corners taken and 3.8 corners against, while conceding 1.6 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 6.8 attempts.

Alonso Martinez is the leading goalscorer with 8, Andres Perea has 3, with Nicolas Fernandez and Hannes Wolf getting 2. Maxi Moralez has been top assists provider with 4 in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Philadelphia Union predicted lineup (4-4-2): Andre Blake (GK), Nathan Harriel, Jakob Glesnes, Olwethu Makhanya, Kai Wagner, Frankie Westfield, Danley Jean Jacques, Jovan Lukic, Indiana Vassilev, Milan Iloski, Bruno Damiani.

New York City predicted lineup (5-3-2): Matt Freese (GK), Tayvon Gray, Aiden O'Neill, Thiago Martins, Justin Haak, Raul Gustavo, Andrés Perea, Agustin Ojeda, Maxi Moralez, Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Hannes Wolf.

Philadelphia Union vs New York City Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Philadelphia Union vs New York City, including our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, key corners pick, must-watch player props and a tailored bet builder ready to use.

Match Prediction

There could be some merit in backing Over 2.5 Goals when it comes to this MLS match. We think that this is a value betting angle and we’re happy to take the -161 that is currently available.

Our football experts study the form, while injuries and suspensions can also affect the potential outcome. Before coming up with a verdict, we combine this data with the latest MLS stats.

Key Philadelphia Union vs New York City league stats:

• The 2.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 Philadelphia games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 13 of the last 19 Philadelphia games at home.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 4 of the last 5 NYCFC games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 NYCFC games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in the last 2 NYCFC games.
• The 2.5 line has been covered in 7 of the last 10 games between these teams.

Over 2.5 Probability

The top bookmakers are estimating that there is a 61.7% likelihood of this pick landing a return. After careful examination, our tipsters calculate this probability to be closer to 70%. It is therefore regarded as a value wager.

In the hunt for bigger odds, why not consider combining Over 2.5 Goals with a specific team to win. You need three or more goals along with a victory for the side you have predicted.

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Our Match Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals @ -161 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Philadelphia 3 - 1 New York City

A 3-1 win in favor of Philadelphia is available at odds of +1000. Take a chance on the correct score and get rewarded for predicting the right scoreline.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Hannes Wolf Over 0.5 Shots On Target -127

Hannes Wolf (NYCFC) can be wagered at -127 to register a minimum of one shot on goal. He looks like an attractive pick and we’ll have a bet on this Shots on Target outcome as the betting odds stand out.

Latest Hannes Wolf Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+270

First

+750

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-141

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Indiana Vassilev to Score +350

Indiana Vassilev (Philadelphia) has netted two goals in his past four MLS games. There are odds of +350 on offer for this Anytime Goalscorer bet and we think this is an attractive wager for the player to be on the scoresheet.

Latest Indiana Vassilev Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+350

First

+1050

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-222

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Corners Prediction

Under 10.5 Corners -147

All of the past five New York City matches has seen the 10.5 Total Corners line not covered, with three  consecutive Philadelphia games having the same outcome. The Total Corners line looks too high and we’re happy to go under this number at odds of -147.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Philadelphia

Total

9.20 5.10 4.10

Home

11.60 7.40 4.20

Away

7.90 4.60 3.30

New York City

Total

8.20 4.40 3.80

Home

9.80 5.90 3.90

Away

9.00 4.20 4.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

+104

Under 10.5

-147

Philadelphia Corners

Over 5.5

-135

Under 5.5

-105

New York City Corners

Over 3.5

-164

Under 3.5

+114

Most Corners

1

-204

X

+650

2

+200

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Philadelphia Union vs New York City Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Union Likely to Win According to Latest Odds

With the bookmakers affording them a 56% chance of winning, Philadelphia Union might be a popular accumulator selection. Their betting odds are -125 when it comes to this MLS encounter. If you’re interested in wagering New York City FC, you can get +290 for the underdog.

You can choose between Philadelphia -0.5 at -125 or City +0.5 at -100 if you’re looking to bet on the Asian Handicap. The former is the same as the 1x2 market, while the latter means you also get a payout if it’s a draw.

The Total Goals market indicates that Over 2.5 Goals is the betting favourite right now. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -167 on the Both Teams to Score market.

The best football betting sites provide bettors with an abundance of options. For every MLS game, you’re able to select from hundreds of markets and make the best choice.

Full-Time Result

1

-125

X

+300

2

+290

Half-Time Result

1

+133

X

+143

2

+300

Double Chance

1X

-417

12

-417

X2

-103

Draw No Bet

1

-270

2

+188

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-125

2 Hcp +0.5

-100

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+128

Over 2.5

-161

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-167

No

+118

Tai Baribo Heads First Goalscorer Market

Tai Baribo can be backed to find the net anytime at +120. There is the chance to back the market leader to score the first goal at +370.

Tai Baribo (Philadelphia)

First

+120

Anytime

+370

Alonso Martínez (NYCFC)

First

+150

Anytime

+420

Bruno Damiani (Philadelphia)

First

+190

Anytime

+500

Milan Iloski (Philadelphia)

First

+220

Anytime

+650

Chris Donovan (Philadelphia)

First

+240

Anytime

+650

Hannes Wolf (NYCFC)

First

+270

Anytime

+750

Mikael Uhre (Philadelphia)

First

+270

Anytime

+750

Indiana Vassilev (Philadelphia)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Andrés Perea (NYCFC)

First

+370

Anytime

+1050

Quinn Sullivan (Philadelphia)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Jovan Lukić (Philadelphia)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Danley Jean Jacques (Philadelphia)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Nathan Harriel (Philadelphia)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Aiden O'Neill (NYCFC)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Maximiliano Moralez (NYCFC)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Olwethu Makhanya (Philadelphia)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Bruno Damiani (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

+115

Milan Iloski (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

-161

Under 0.5

+102

Hannes Wolf (NYCFC)

Over 0.5

-127

Under 0.5

-141

Chris Donovan (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-130

Mikael Uhre (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-143

Andrés Perea (NYCFC)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-222

Tai Baribo (Philadelphia)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-217

Indiana Vassilev (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-222

Jovan Lukić (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-303

Danley Jean Jacques (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

+235

Under 0.5

-435

Nathan Harriel (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-500

Aiden O'Neill (NYCFC)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-833

Maximiliano Moralez (NYCFC)

Over 0.5

+310

Under 0.5

-909

Olwethu Makhanya (Philadelphia)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-833

Philadelphia Bidding to Stay Strong at Home

Philadelphia haven’t been beaten in ten straight games at Subaru Park. Bradley Carnell's men have recorded seven victories and three draws in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 2.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10.

New York City have enjoyed four straight wins on the road. The Pigeons have collected five wins, three draws and two defeats in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.60 goals per match and conceding 1.30.

City were 2-1 victors against Philadelphia last time out at Subaru Park. We’ve seen four victories each in the previous 8 H2H matches at Subaru Park.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Philadelphia Union Home Stats		7-3-0	3.40	2.30	1.10	7	3	7	3
New York City Away Stats		5-3-2	2.90	1.60	1.30	5	5	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Philadelphia Union vs New York City Lineups & Team News

Double-check the Philadelphia vs City team news before placing your bets. Get the predicted and confirmed MLS lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

Philadelphia Union Team Page New York City Team Page