Toluca vs Guadalajara Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 28 Feb 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Guadalajara

Toluca clash with Guadalajara at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 18:00 on Saturday 28 February.

Toluca look like a spot of value at -108 when it comes to the Full-Time Result market. The home team should be able to deliver a victory against Guadalajara based on the information available.

Deportivo Toluca have won two Liga MX games on the spin, triumphing 3-0 in their previous league encounter. This was away to Club Necaxa at Estadio Victoria. Los Diablos Rojos had the majority of the ball boasting 58% possession and six shots on target, with Paulinho getting two goals and Federico Pereira scoring the other.

Guadalajara were beaten in their previous game and this was on the road at Estadio Banorte. Cruz Azul claimed a 2-1 victory. Guadalajara had four shots on goal and boasted 57% possession, while Angel Sepulveda was on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have beaten Guadalajara in the last two head-to-head encounters. Away at Estadio Akron, the most recent scoreline was 3-0 which came after a 2-1 home win at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The past 10 H2H games have included three Toluca wins, two Guadalajara victories and five draws.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Guadalajara	7	6	0	1	12	6	6	12:6	18
4	Toluca	7	4	3	0	9	2	7	9:2	15

View Full Table

Deportivo Toluca have 6 wins, 1 loss and 3 draws, averaging 2.3 goals from 5.3 shots on goal and 10.6 attempts. They have averaged 57.2% possession and 5.6 corners per match, with their opponents getting 1.4 goals from 3.2 shots on goal, 6.5 attempts and 2.9 corners.

Top goalscorer Paulinho has found the net 6 times, with Helinho and Federico Pereira scoring 4 and 2 respectively. Jorge Diaz and Helinho have racked up the most assists with 2 each.

Chivas have 7 victories, 2 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 1.8 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts. There’s been an average of 56.3% possession, 4.5 corners taken and 2.5 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.1 goals from 3.0 shots on goal and 6.9 attempts.

Armando Gonzalez has scored 6, followed by Efrain Alvarez, Daniel Aguirre and Roberto Alvarado with 2 goals apiece. Richard Ledezma has been the top assist maker with 3 in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (5-3-2): Luis García (GK), Santiago Simón, Diego Barbosa, Federico Pereira, Everardo del Villar, Jesús Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Pavel Uriel Pérez, Jesús Angulo, Paulinho.

Guadalajara predicted lineup (3-4-2-1): José Raúl Rangel (GK), Daniel Aguirre, Diego Campillo, José Castillo, Richard Ledezma, Fernando González, Omar Govea, Bryan González, Roberto Alvarado, Efrain Álvarez, Armando González.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Prediction & Betting Tips

Take in the full Toluca vs Guadalajara betting outlook — from our expert match prediction and correct score pick to sharp corners advice, player prop insights and a bet builder tailored for value.

Match Prediction

There’s every chance that Toluca can get the upper hand in this Liga MX game and we’ll therefore back the hosts to claim a victory. The match winner odds of -108 look too good to resist.

Team news is very useful and our football tipsters are keen to identify the players who are doubtful with injury. You’ll also find us studying the form guide, with lots of Liga MX data available which provides a clear picture from the stats.

Key Toluca vs Guadalajara league stats:

• Toluca have won 4 of their last 5 games at home.
• Toluca have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Toluca have won 2 consecutive games.
• Toluca have won the last 2 games between these teams.

The best betting sites make it a 51.8% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this wager.

We’d recommend taking a look at the Asian Handicap, Double Result and Result & Both Teams to Score markets if you’re interested in siding with Toluca but want bigger odds.

Our quick-access guide helps you unlock the best betting offers, generous promos, and the freshest free bets today.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -108 Watch Live Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Feb 27, 00:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 1 Guadalajara

Toluca are available at +600 to secure a 2-1 victory. Many bettors enjoy a correct score wager and there are some nice potential returns to be had.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Federico Pereira to Score +750

Federico Pereira (Toluca) has managed two goals in his past ten Liga MX games. He looks like an attractive wager to be on the scoresheet and you’re able to back this Anytime Goalscorer selection at odds of +750.

Latest Federico Pereira Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+750

First

+2200

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -143

It has now been seven straight Guadalajara matches where under 9.5 corners have been awarded. The Total Corners line looks to be too high given the stats and -143 is available to wager.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.50 5.60 2.90

Home

8.70 5.50 3.20

Away

9.40 5.70 3.70

Guadalajara

Total

7.00 4.50 2.50

Home

8.90 5.10 3.80

Away

7.80 4.30 3.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-104

Under 9.5

-143

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-106

Under 5.5

-147

Guadalajara Corners

Over 3.5

-127

Under 3.5

-123

Most Corners

1

-200

X

+650

2

+200

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Guadalajara Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Deportivo Toluca are the -108 favourites on the 1x2 betting. That implies a 52% chance of triumphing in this Liga MX encounter according to the latest odds. Guadalajara are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +310.

The Asian Handicap -0.5 market is the same as a Full-Time Result wager, with Toluca needing to win at -109 for your bet to be successful. Guadalajara +0.5 at -119 means you need them to triumph or the draw to happen.

If you want to bet on three goals or more, then Over 2.5 is the shortest odds. Both Teams to Score is one of the top markets and the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -156.

There are hundreds of markets from which to select your preferred bet when it comes to Liga MX matches. The leading football betting sites push the boat out to provide lots of choice.

Full-Time Result

1

-108

X

+220

2

+310

Half-Time Result

1

+140

X

+123

2

+310

Double Chance

1X

-556

12

-357

X2

-135

Draw No Bet

1

-286

2

+180

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-109

2 Hcp +0.5

-119

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-108

Over 2.5

-127

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-156

No

+110

Those interested in favourite João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" to find the net first are able to get +300. If the Anytime Goalscorer angle makes more appeal, then this is +110.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

+110

Anytime

+300

Armando González (Guadalajara)

First

+180

Anytime

+480

Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro "Helinho" (Toluca)

First

+270

Anytime

+750

Ángel Sepúlveda (Guadalajara)

First

+280

Anytime

+700

Ricardo Marin (Guadalajara)

First

+320

Anytime

+800

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+900

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1000

Roberto Alvarado (Guadalajara)

First

+400

Anytime

+1000

Jonathan Pérez (Guadalajara)

First

+400

Anytime

+1000

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+440

Anytime

+1050

Efrain Alvarez (Guadalajara)

First

+440

Anytime

+1050

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1400

Brian Gutierrez (Guadalajara)

First

+550

Anytime

+1400

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Omar Govea (Guadalajara)

First

+575

Anytime

+1400

Richard Ledezma (Guadalajara)

First

+575

Anytime

+1500

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1500

Bryan Gonzalez (Guadalajara)

First

+575

Anytime

+1600

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Toluca haven’t lost any of their past ten games at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos have racked up seven wins and three draws in the last 10 home matches, scoring an average of 2.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80.

Guadalajara have recorded seven victories and three defeats in the previous 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10.

When the sides last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca beat Guadalajara 2-1. The 7 previous H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez have seen four draws, two wins for Toluca and a victory for Guadalajara.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-3-0	2.90	2.10	0.80	6	4	6	4
Guadalajara Away Stats		7-0-3	2.70	1.60	1.10	6	4	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Guadalajara Lineups & Team News

Double-check the Toluca vs Chivas team news before placing your bets. Expect the predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups along with timely injury updates.

Toluca Team Page Guadalajara Team Page

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