Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 06 Dec 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Monterrey

Toluca go head-to-head with Monterrey in the second leg of this Liga MX Apertura semi-final at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 20:00 on Saturday 6 December.

There’s a strong case for siding with Toluca when it comes to the Full-Time Result betting market. We think the favourites could prove too strong for Monterrey and odds of -156 are attractive.

Following our Toluca to win prediction? Make sure you're betting smart—get the latest BetMGM promo code and read our trusted review to get the best value.

Rayados Claimed 1–0 First-Leg Win

Monterrey and Deportivo Toluca faced each other in the first leg on Wednesday night, with hosts Monterrey landing a 1–0 victory. German Berterame scored the winner.

Looking back to the previous 10 H2H meetings, there has been three draws. Toluca have won four games and Monterrey three.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Toluca	17	11	4	2	43	18	25	43:18	37
5	Monterrey	17	9	4	4	33	29	4	33:29	31

View Full Table

5 wins, 1 loss and 4 draws, averaging 1.7 goals from 10.1 attempts and 4.6 shots on goal. Deportivo Toluca have had 50.0% possession and 5.6 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 0.7 goals from 7.4 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal, while earning 4.0 corners.

Paulinho leads the way with 7 goals, with Alexis Vega and Jesus Angulo scoring 2 each. Diego Barbosa, Nicolas Castro and Jesus Angulo are the leading assists makers with 2.

Rayados have won 4, lost 3 and drawn 3, averaging 4.9 shots on goal, 8.5 attempts and 1.5 goals. Domenec Torrent's side average 49.4% possession, 3.1 corners awarded and 4.2 corners against, while 1.4 goals have been conceded from 7.2 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal.

German Berterame got 5 goals, Sergio Canales notched 4, while Fidel Ambriz and two other players scored 1. Jesus Corona, Sergio Canales and German Berterame have been the top assists providers with 2 in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simón, Federico Pereira, Antonio Briseño, Jesús Gallardo, Franco Romero, Marcel Ruíz, Jesús Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega, Paulinho.

Monterrey predicted lineup (4-4-2): Luis Cárdenas (GK), Ricardo Chávez, Stefan Medina, Sergio Ramos, Gerardo Arteaga, Oliver Torres, Jorge Rodriguez, Fidel Ambríz, Jesus Manuel Corona, Sergio Canales, Germán Berterame.

Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction & Betting Tips

This Toluca vs Monterrey betting guide features sharp analysis across major markets, including a match prediction, correct score bet, corner kick insight, valuable player prop picks and a strategic bet builder.

Match Prediction

We’re confident with our selection of Toluca to land a victory, with odds of -156 looking really generous. We think they have the ability to claim a win in this Liga MX game.

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making football predictions. The latest Liga MX team news is also an important port of call, while the stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Toluca vs Monterrey league stats:

• Toluca have won 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• Toluca have won 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• Monterrey have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Monterrey have lost their last 3 games on the road.

If you go by the best football betting sites, our pick has a 61% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 70%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

If you’re looking to squeeze more juice from the odds, consider Toluca on the Asian Handicap. Those expecting our winner to exceed expectations can bet them to cover the line.

Before you bet, make sure to check out the latest offers. Our guide is packed with the best welcome bonuses from leading sportsbooks.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -156 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 3 - 1 Monterrey

Toluca can be backed at +800 to triumph by a 3-1 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Sergio Canales Over 0.5 Shots On Target -130

Sergio Canales (Monterrey) is available to register one or more shots on goal at -130. When it comes to wagering Shots on Target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.

Latest Sergio Canales Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+850

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-130

Under 0.5

-133

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Jesús Gallardo to Score +450

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) has registered three goals in his past nine Liga MX matches on home soil. Based on the stats, we are happy to back the +450 when it comes to him finding the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Jesús Gallardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+450

First

+1400

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-370

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Corners Prediction

Monterrey Under 3.5 Corners -137

Monterrey have had under 3.5 corners in six straight matches, while the last 10 Toluca home games have seen them concede an average of 3.10 corners. The Monterrey Team Corners line looks too high and we’re content to go under this number at odds of -137.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.60 5.60 4.00

Home

8.60 5.50 3.10

Away

10.50 5.50 5.00

Monterrey

Total

7.30 3.10 4.20

Home

9.30 4.00 5.30

Away

7.80 3.80 4.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-152

Under 9.5

+102

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

-108

Under 6.5

-147

Monterrey Corners

Over 3.5

-115

Under 3.5

-137

Most Corners

1

-303

X

+750

2

+290

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Toluca vs Monterrey Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

With a 61% chance of winning according to the latest odds, Deportivo Toluca are favourites to prosper in this Liga MX encounter and they’re available at -156 with the bookies. Monterrey are the outsiders at +350 which suggests a lower likelihood of winning.

A 2+ goal margin of victory for Toluca against Monterrey means a full payout at -123 when backing them on the Asian Handicap -0.75. A one-goal win means half the stake wins and half is refunded.

There’s a high probability that Over 2.5 Goals will be netted according to the current prices. BTTS Yes is available at -200 for anyone expecting Both Teams to Score.

For those wanting hundreds of football markets, it’s great that the top betting sites are on hand to offer this service. When it comes to every Liga MX game, go for the pick which stands out the most.

Full-Time Result

1

-156

X

+310

2

+350

Half-Time Result

1

+108

X

+155

2

+320

Double Chance

1X

-625

12

-556

X2

+105

Draw No Bet

1

-385

2

+225

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-123

2 Hcp +0.75

-104

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+155

Over 2.5

-217

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-200

No

+138

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is the favourite to be First Goalscorer at +295. If you’re interested in backing him to find the net at anytime, then the price is -118.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-118

Anytime

+295

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

First

+180

Anytime

+525

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

First

+280

Anytime

+850

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+850

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+900

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1300

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+460

Anytime

+1400

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1600

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1700

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

+140

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-133

Under 1.5

-128

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-130

Under 0.5

-133

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-182

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-192

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-263

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-313

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-333

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-345

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-370

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+185

Under 0.5

-370

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-500

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-476

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-588

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-714

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-714

Toluca haven’t tasted defeat in eight consecutive matches at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Antonio Mohamed's team have six victories, three draws and one defeat in the last 10 home matches, netting an average of 2.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

The past three Monterrey games on the road have ended in defeat. They have clocked up five losses, four wins and one draw in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.60 goals per match and conceding 2.20.

Toluca beat Monterrey 6-2 when the teams last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca have won five of the previous 9 H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with Monterrey getting one victory along with three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		6-3-1	3.90	2.70	1.20	7	3	7	3
Monterrey Away Stats		4-1-5	3.80	1.60	2.20	7	3	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Monterrey Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Toluca vs Rayados team news before you bet. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups plus current injury reports.

Toluca Team Page Monterrey Team Page

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