Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 06 Dec 2025

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Monterrey

Toluca go head-to-head with Monterrey in the second leg of this Liga MX Apertura semi-final at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 20:00 on Saturday 6 December.

There’s a strong case for siding with Toluca when it comes to the Full-Time Result betting market. We think the favourites could prove too strong for Monterrey and odds of -156 are attractive.

Following our Toluca to win prediction? Make sure you're betting smart—get the latest BetMGM promo code and read our trusted review to get the best value.

Rayados Claimed 1–0 First-Leg Win

Monterrey and Deportivo Toluca faced each other in the first leg on Wednesday night, with hosts Monterrey landing a 1–0 victory. German Berterame scored the winner.

Looking back to the previous 10 H2H meetings, there has been three draws. Toluca have won four games and Monterrey three.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Toluca	3	2	1	0	4	1	3	4:1	7
3	Monterrey	3	2	0	1	7	2	5	7:2	6

View Full Table

5 wins, 1 loss and 4 draws, averaging 1.7 goals from 10.1 attempts and 4.6 shots on goal. Deportivo Toluca have had 50.0% possession and 5.6 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 0.7 goals from 7.4 attempts and 2.8 shots on goal, while earning 4.0 corners.

Paulinho leads the way with 7 goals, with Alexis Vega and Jesus Angulo scoring 2 each. Diego Barbosa, Nicolas Castro and Jesus Angulo are the leading assists makers with 2.

Rayados have won 4, lost 3 and drawn 3, averaging 4.9 shots on goal, 8.5 attempts and 1.5 goals. Domenec Torrent's side average 49.4% possession, 3.1 corners awarded and 4.2 corners against, while 1.4 goals have been conceded from 7.2 attempts and 3.9 shots on goal.

German Berterame got 5 goals, Sergio Canales notched 4, while Fidel Ambriz and two other players scored 1. Jesus Corona, Sergio Canales and German Berterame have been the top assists providers with 2 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Santiago Simon, Federico Pereira, Everardo Del Villar, Jesus Angulo, Jesus Gallardo, Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Nicolas Castro, Helinho, Paulinho.

Monterrey confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Cardenas (GK), Ricardo Chavez, John Medina, Sergio Ramos, Gerardo Arteaga, Luis Reyes, Fidel Ambriz, Oliver Torres, Sergio Canales, Jorge Rodriguez, German Berterame.

Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction & Betting Tips

This Toluca vs Monterrey betting guide features sharp analysis across major markets, including a match prediction, correct score bet, corner kick insight, valuable player prop picks and a strategic bet builder.

Match Prediction

We’re confident with our selection of Toluca to land a victory, with odds of -156 looking really generous. We think they have the ability to claim a win in this Liga MX game.

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making football predictions. The latest Liga MX team news is also an important port of call, while the stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Toluca vs Monterrey league stats:

• Toluca have won 15 of their last 20 games at home.
• Toluca have won 6 of their last 10 games at home.
• Monterrey have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Monterrey have lost their last 3 games on the road.

If you go by the best football betting sites, our pick has a 61% chance of delivering a return. After careful examination, our team calculate this probability to be closer to 70%. The wager can be recommended for this precise reason.

If you’re looking to squeeze more juice from the odds, consider Toluca on the Asian Handicap. Those expecting our winner to exceed expectations can bet them to cover the line.

Before you bet, make sure to check out the latest offers. Our guide is packed with the best welcome bonuses from leading sportsbooks.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca To Win @ -156 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (12:56, 05 December 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 3 - 1 Monterrey

Toluca can be backed at +800 to triumph by a 3-1 scoreline. It can be fun to have a wager on the correct score and there’s a big potential return if the bet wins.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Sergio Canales Over 0.5 Shots On Target -130

Sergio Canales (Monterrey) is available to register one or more shots on goal at -130. When it comes to wagering Shots on Target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.

Latest Sergio Canales Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-139

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

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Jesús Gallardo to Score +450

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca) has registered three goals in his past nine Liga MX matches on home soil. Based on the stats, we are happy to back the +450 when it comes to him finding the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Jesús Gallardo Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+450

First

+1400

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-345

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Monterrey Under 3.5 Corners -137

Monterrey have had under 3.5 corners in six straight matches, while the last 10 Toluca home games have seen them concede an average of 3.10 corners. The Monterrey Team Corners line looks too high and we’re content to go under this number at odds of -137.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

9.60 5.60 4.00

Home

8.60 5.50 3.10

Away

10.50 5.50 5.00

Monterrey

Total

7.30 3.10 4.20

Home

9.30 4.00 5.30

Away

7.80 3.80 4.00

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-135

Under 9.5

-111

Toluca Corners

Over 6.5

-109

Under 6.5

-143

Monterrey Corners

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-161

Most Corners

1

-333

X

+750

2

+310

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Monterrey Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

With a 65% chance of winning according to the latest odds, Deportivo Toluca are favourites to prosper in this Liga MX encounter and they’re available at -185 with the bookies. Monterrey are the outsiders at +410 which suggests a lower likelihood of winning.

Taking Toluca -1 on the Asian Handicap means a full payout at -115 if they beat Monterrey by two or more goals. A one-goal victory would see your stake pushed which means a full refund.

There’s a high probability that Over 2.5 Goals will be netted according to the current prices. BTTS Yes is available at -200 for anyone expecting Both Teams to Score.

For those wanting hundreds of football markets, it’s great that the top betting sites are on hand to offer this service. When it comes to every Liga MX game, go for the pick which stands out the most.

Full-Time Result

1

-185

X

+335

2

+410

Half-Time Result

1

-102

X

+160

2

+350

Double Chance

1X

-769

12

-625

X2

+123

Draw No Bet

1

-500

2

+270

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-115

2 Hcp +1

-114

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+165

Over 2.5

-233

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-200

No

+138

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is the favourite to be First Goalscorer at +280. If you’re interested in backing him to find the net at anytime, then the price is -128.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-128

Anytime

+280

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

First

+185

Anytime

+550

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+280

Anytime

+850

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

First

+280

Anytime

+900

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+290

Anytime

+900

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+350

Anytime

+1050

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1300

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1400

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

First

+510

Anytime

+1400

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1600

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

First

+540

Anytime

+1700

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Germán Berterame (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-238

Under 0.5

+132

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-118

Sergio Canales (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-139

Robert Morales (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-103

Under 0.5

-172

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+105

Under 0.5

-185

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-263

Juan Domínguez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-313

Sergio Ramos (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-313

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-345

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-345

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-357

Jesús Corona (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+180

Under 0.5

-345

Héctor Herrera (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+215

Under 0.5

-476

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-500

Érick Aguirre (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-588

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-667

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-714

Fidel Ambriz (Monterrey)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-714

Toluca haven’t tasted defeat in eight consecutive matches at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Antonio Mohamed's team have six victories, three draws and one defeat in the last 10 home matches, netting an average of 2.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

The past three Monterrey games on the road have ended in defeat. They have clocked up five losses, four wins and one draw in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.60 goals per match and conceding 2.20.

Toluca beat Monterrey 6-2 when the teams last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Toluca have won five of the previous 9 H2H games at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with Monterrey getting one victory along with three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		6-3-1	3.90	2.70	1.20	7	3	7	3
Monterrey Away Stats		4-1-5	3.80	1.60	2.20	7	3	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Monterrey Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Toluca vs Rayados team news before you bet. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups plus current injury reports.

Toluca Team Page Monterrey Team Page

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