Toluca vs Atlas Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 14 Mar 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Atlas

Toluca meet Atlas at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 20:00 on Saturday 14 March.

Backing Toluca -1.25 at odds of -128 means we’ll benefit if the favourites win by two or more goals against Atlas. If they only triumph by one goal, then half our stake will be returned on the Asian Handicap.

Deportivo Toluca have enjoyed five consecutive Liga MX victories, most recently beating Juárez 3-1. It was a home win at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos enjoyed 67% possession and had five shots on target, while Helinho, Antonio Briseno and Paulinho got among the goals.

On Thursday, Toluca were beaten 3-2 away in the Champions Cup against San Diego FC.

Atlas have had back-to-back Liga MX road losses. In the previous league game, they suffered a 2-1 home defeat against Guadalajara at Estadio Jalisco. Diego Cocca's side had just 23% possession and totalled three shots on goal, while Paulo Ramirez was on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have not lost to Atlas in the past seven meetings, with their last encounter ending in a 0-0 draw at Estadio Jalisco. The previous 10 H2H matches have featured five draws, four victories for Toluca and just one for Atlas.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
5	Toluca	17	8	6	3	28	16	12	28:16	30
6	Atlas	17	7	5	5	16	18	-2	16:18	26

View Full Table

7 wins and 3 draws, averaging 1.7 goals from 5.4 shots on goal and 10.8 attempts. Deportivo Toluca have had 58.1% possession and 6.3 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 0.5 goals from 3.7 shots on goal and 6.6 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 2.4 corners.

Paulinho is the top goalscorer with 6, Helinho has 3, with Antonio Briseno and two other players on 1. Francisco Cordova, Marcel Ruiz and Jesus Gallardo are the leading assists makers with 2.

Atlas have won 5, lost 4 and drawn 1, averaging 3.6 shots on goal, 7.9 attempts and 1.3 goals. Los Rojinegros average 48.4% possession, 3.3 corners taken and 3.7 corners against them, while 1.5 goals have been conceded from 8.4 attempts and 3.4 shots on goal.

Arturo Gonzalez is the leading scorer with 5 goals, followed by Uros Djurdjevic on 2, with Paulo Ramirez and two others bagging 1. Sergio Hernandez, Rodrigo Adrian Schlegel and Eduardo Aguirre have managed 1 assists in the last 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Toluca confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Luis Garcia (GK), Sebastian Aceves, Luan Garcia, Antonio Briseno, Everardo Lopez, Victor Arteaga, Fernando Arce, Francisco Cordova, Alexis Vega, Pavel Perez, Franco Rossi.

Atlas confirmed lineup (3-5-2): Camilo Vargas (GK), Manuel Capasso, Gaddi Aguirre, Jorge Rodriguez, Rodrigo Adrian Schlegel, Edgar Zaldivar, Aldo Rocha, Paulo Ramirez, Diego Gonzalez, Agustin Rodriguez, Arturo Gonzalez.

Toluca vs Atlas Prediction & Betting Tips

Get the full betting picture for Toluca vs Atlas, including a key match prediction, our correct score selection, best corners advice, top player prop picks and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

There’s the chance to back Toluca -1.25 for this Liga MX match and odds of -128 make lots of appeal. We’re anticipating that the favourites can keep their opponents at bay for ninety minutes.

The football betting tips are created after keeping tabs on the latest Liga MX team news along with the form guide. We also delve into the latest stats which can provide a barometer for how the action might play out.

Key Toluca vs Atlas league stats:

• The -1.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 3 of their last 5 games at home.
• The -1.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 11 of their last 20 games at home.
• The -1.25 line has been covered by Toluca in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The +1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Atlas in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• The +1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Atlas in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +1.25 line hasn’t been covered by Atlas in 2 consecutive games on the road.

The top bookmakers are estimating that there is a 56.2% likelihood of this pick landing a return. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success between 60-65%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

We advise that you move the line if you are looking for a larger price about the same selection. Make your prediction and land the bigger odds from your wager as a result.

Before you place your bets, explore our updated guide packed with the latest free bets and betting bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Toluca Asian Hcp -1.25 @ -128 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 13, 02:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 2 - 0 Atlas

We’ve found an attractive bet at odds of +480 and it involves Toluca winning 2-0. We like a wager on correct score as there’s the chance to bank a bigger return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Fernando Arce To Score +310

Fernando Arce (Toluca) is available at +310 to be among the goals. All things considered, we think that the odds are really appealing when it comes to betting on Anytime Goalscorer.

Latest Fernando Arce Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+320

First

+900

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Atlas Over 2.5 Corners -128

In their past four away games, Atlas have covered the 2.5 corners line, while the previous three Toluca home matches have involved them conceding over 2.5 corners. We’re expecting plenty of Atlas corners and that the Team Corners line is going to be covered, with odds of -128 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

8.70 6.30 2.40

Home

8.70 5.50 3.20

Away

10.30 6.90 3.40

Atlas

Total

7.00 3.30 3.70

Home

8.10 3.30 4.80

Away

8.60 3.20 5.40

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 8.5

-143

Under 8.5

-103

Toluca Corners

Over 5.5

-159

Under 5.5

+102

Atlas Corners

Over 2.5

-127

Under 2.5

-123

Most Corners

1

-476

X

+800

2

+420

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Toluca vs Atlas Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Deportivo Toluca are convincing -294 favourites to land the spoils in this Liga MX encounter, which means a 75% likelihood of securing a victory according to the current betting odds. Atlas are the +750 outsiders, with the draw being a different option which could yield dividends.

Toluca can be backed alternatively on the Half-Time Result market and that means getting -128. However, Atlas are +575 and the draw is +150 if you want to take a different option.

The Over 2.5 pick is trading as the favourite when it comes to betting on Total Goals. If you’re looking to wager on Both Teams to Score, there’s not a lot of difference between Yes and No.

If you’re betting on Liga MX games, we recommend heading to the best football betting sites and scanning through the hundreds of markets. There’s a chance to bet pre-match and In-Play.

Full-Time Result

1

-294

X

+380

2

+750

Half-Time Result

1

-128

X

+150

2

+575

Double Chance

1X

-2000

12

-667

X2

+195

Draw No Bet

1

-1250

2

+460

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1.25

-127

2 Hcp +1.25

-102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+118

Over 2.5

-164

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-120

No

-123

Favourite João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is priced at +230 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of -141.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-141

Anytime

+230

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

+150

Anytime

+420

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+220

Anytime

+600

Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro "Helinho" (Toluca)

First

+220

Anytime

+600

Pavel Perez (Toluca)

First

+310

Anytime

+850

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+320

Anytime

+900

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1050

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+400

Anytime

+1150

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+420

Anytime

+1200

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

Diego González (Atlas)

First

+475

Anytime

+1300

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Arturo González (Atlas)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+650

Anytime

+2000

Víctor Ríos (Atlas)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Toluca have gone unbeaten at Estadio Nemesio Diez in the last ten games. Los Diablos Rojos have secured seven victories and three draws in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80.

Atlas have collected eight defeats, one win and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, scoring an average of 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00.

Toluca beat Atlas 4-1 when the teams last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The previous 7 H2H meetings at Estadio Nemesio Diez have included four wins for Toluca, two triumphs for Atlas and a single draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-3-0	2.70	1.90	0.80	5	5	6	4
Atlas Away Stats		1-1-8	2.50	0.50	2.00	3	7	4	6

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Toluca vs Atlas Lineups & Team News

Stay informed and review the Toluca vs Atlas team news before placing your bets. We’ll offer the predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups along with the latest injury developments.

Toluca Team Page Atlas Team Page

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