Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 14 Jan 2026

Liga MX Betting Preview: Toluca vs Santos Laguna

Toluca take on Santos Laguna at Estadio Nemesio Diez, with kick-off set for 22:00 on Wednesday 14 January.

Santos Laguna can do themselves proud when clashing with Toluca and we’ll back them at +2.25 on the Asian Handicap. The odds of -111 look attractive, with our money split between +2 and +2.5.

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Deportivo Toluca have been handed back-to-back league losses. Their last Liga MX game saw them land a 1-0 road victory over Monterrey at Estadio BBVA. Los Diablos Rojos had 41% possession and recorded two shots on target, with Helinho getting the all-important goal in the 56th minute.

Santos Laguna were defeated in their previous game, being turned over 3-1 at home to Club Necaxa at Estadio Nuevo Corona. Francisco Rodriguez's team boasted 60% possession and had four shots on goal, with Lucas Di Yorio on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Toluca have won the last two head-to-heads against Santos. On the road at Estadio Nuevo Corona, the most recent scoreline was 4-2 which followed a 2-1 home triumph at Estadio Nemesio Diez. The previous 10 matches featuring these sides have resulted in eight Toluca victories and two Santos wins.

Liga MX		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
6	Toluca	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1:0	3
17	Santos Laguna	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	1:3	0

View Full Table

5 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws, averaging 2.1 goals from 4.8 shots on goal and 10.5 attempts. Deportivo Toluca have had 48.7% possession and 6.0 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.6 goals from 3.1 shots on goal and 7.3 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 4.1 corners.

Paulinho leads the way with 5 goals, Helinho has 4, with Federico Pereira and two others on 1. The top assist makers are Helinho, Nicolas Castro and Diego Barbosa, all of whom have 2 on the board.

Santos have won 4, lost 5 and drawn 1, with an average of 1.2 goals from 7.9 attempts and 4.5 shots on goal. Los Guerreros average 45.9% possession, 4.6 corners awarded and 7.0 corners against them, while conceding 1.8 goals from 13.1 attempts and 6.9 shots on goal.

Bruno Amione is the leading scorer with 3 goals, followed by Kevin Palacios on 2, with Lucas Di Yorio and two others bagging 1. Jose Abella has managed to clock up 3 assists in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Toluca predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hugo Gonzalez (GK), Diego Barbosa, Bruno Méndez, Everardo del Villar, Mauricio André Isais, Fernando Arce, Pavel Uriel Pérez, Helinho, Santiago Simón, Nicolas Castro, Oswaldo Virgen.

Santos Laguna predicted lineup (4-1-4-1): Carlos Acevedo Lopez (GK), Efraín Orona, Óscar Haret Ortega, Kevin Balanta, Bruno Amione, Aldo López Vargas, Cristian Dájome, Fran Villalba, Kevin Palacios, Carlos Gruezo, Lucas Di Yorio.

Toluca vs Santos Laguna Prediction & Betting Tips

Our Toluca vs Santos Laguna betting preview covers everything you need, including a key match prediction, a corners betting angle, correct score insight, top player prop bets and a value-packed bet builder recommendation.

Match Prediction

We anticipate a payout when we bet on Santos Laguna +2.25 at -111 for this Liga MX clash. This Asian Handicap wager has a great chance of landing a return based on the team news and stats at our disposal.

We’re always monitoring the Liga MX team news. Combined with the latest form, this helps us secure the best value. Our football experts also take a data-led approach, with the key numbers proving useful.

Key Toluca vs Santos Laguna league stats:

• The +2.25 line has been covered by Santos in 14 of their last 17 games on the road.
• The +2.25 line has been covered by Santos in 8 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The +2.25 line has been covered by Santos in 2 consecutive games.
• The -2.25 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 11 consecutive games.
• The -2.25 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 17 of their last 20 games.
• The -2.25 line hasn’t been covered by Toluca in 5 consecutive games against Santos.

The best betting apps make it a 52.6% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. This is why we can recommend this bet.

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Our Match Prediction

Santos Asian Hcp +2.25 @ -111 Watch Live Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Toluca 1 - 0 Santos

We’re going for Toluca at +950 to secure a 1-0 win. It’s exciting to bet on the correct score and this wager will hopefully be able to land a nice return.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nicolas Castro Over 0.5 Shots On Target -133

Nicolas Castro (Toluca) can be backed at -133 to record a minimum of one shot on goal. When it comes to wagering Shots on Target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.

Latest Nicolas Castro Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+200

First

+700

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-132

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Santiago Simón To Score +300

Santiago Simón (Toluca) can be wagered at +300 to be among the goals. He looks like a value bet to find the net and we recommend backing this Anytime Goalscorer pick.

Latest Santiago Simón Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+300

First

+1000

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-244

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Corners Prediction

Over 9.5 Corners -149

There’s been a corner average of 13.80 in the past five away matches involving Santos, with the last ten Toluca games averaging 10.10. We’re anticipating that there will be plenty of corners and that the line will be covered, with odds of -149 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Toluca

Total

10.10 6.00 4.10

Home

9.00 5.60 3.40

Away

9.90 5.30 4.60

Santos

Total

11.60 4.60 7.00

Home

9.80 4.10 5.70

Away

11.70 4.40 7.30

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-152

Under 9.5

+102

Toluca Corners

Over 7.5

-102

Under 7.5

-156

Santos Corners

Over 2.5

-128

Under 2.5

-123

Most Corners

1

-833

X

+950

2

+600

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Toluca vs Santos Laguna Odds

The odds are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Deportivo Toluca are trading as the gigantic -667 favourites for this Liga MX encounter. This means the bookmakers give them a 87% probability of winning. Santos Laguna are seen as by far the most unlikely winner at +1200.

Toluca can be backed at -227 on the Half-Time Result and you’ll need them to have their noses in front by the break. Santos can be chanced at +700 and the draw is +240.

The Total Goals market reveals that Over 2.5 Goals is the current betting favourite. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -127 on the Both Teams to Score market.

The recommended betting sites push the boat out to ensure that football bettors can select from hundreds of markets. You can access them for every Liga MX game before making a decision.

Full-Time Result

1

-667

X

+650

2

+1200

Half-Time Result

1

-227

X

+240

2

+700

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -2.25

-116

2 Hcp +2.25

-111

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+265

Over 2.5

-400

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-127

No

-112

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" is available at -213 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer, with the favourite priced at odds of +220 to find the net first.

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

First

-213

Anytime

+220

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

First

-100

Anytime

+380

Robert Morales (Toluca)

First

+200

Anytime

+650

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

First

+200

Anytime

+700

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

First

+250

Anytime

+850

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+1000

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+1050

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

First

+300

Anytime

+1100

Franco Romero (Toluca)

First

+320

Anytime

+1150

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

First

+370

Anytime

+1200

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

First

+460

Anytime

+1600

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

First

+475

Anytime

+1800

Lucas Di Yorio (Santos)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

First

+500

Anytime

+1600

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

First

+550

Anytime

+1800

Fran Villalba (Santos)

First

+575

Anytime

+1800

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

First

+575

Anytime

+1900

Cristian Dájome (Santos)

First

+650

Anytime

+2200

Salvador Mariscal Murra (Santos)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Nicolas Castro (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-132

Fernando Arce (Toluca)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-179

João Paulo Fernandes "Paulinho" (Toluca)

Over 2.5

+112

Under 2.5

-200

Alexis Vega (Toluca)

Over 1.5

+128

Under 1.5

-233

Lucas Di Yorio (Santos)

Over 0.5

+128

Under 0.5

-227

Santiago Simón (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-244

Luan Garcia Teixeira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-244

Jesús Gallardo (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+138

Under 0.5

-250

Franco Romero (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-263

Marcel Ruiz (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-333

Fran Villalba (Santos)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-333

Cristian Dájome (Santos)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-500

Diego Barbosa (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-476

Federico Pereira (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-500

Mauricio Isais (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+230

Under 0.5

-500

Salvador Mariscal Murra (Santos)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-526

Antonio Briseño (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-714

Bruno Méndez (Toluca)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-667

Toluca haven’t lost any of their past ten games at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Los Diablos Rojos have seven victories and three draws in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 2.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00.

Santos Laguna haven’t tasted victory in ten consecutive matches on the road. Francisco Rodriguez's team have eight defeats and two draws in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 0.90 goals per match and conceding 2.20.

Toluca overcame Santos 2-1 when the sides last met at Estadio Nemesio Diez. We’ve seen the past 7 H2H matches at Estadio Nemesio Diez involve five wins for Toluca, one draw and one victory for Santos.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Toluca Home Stats		7-3-0	3.60	2.60	1.00	7	3	7	3
Santos Laguna Away Stats		0-2-8	3.10	0.90	2.20	7	3	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Toluca vs Santos Laguna Lineups & Team News

Avoid surprises — review the Toluca vs Santos team news before you bet. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Liga MX lineups and the latest on injuries.

Toluca Team Page Santos Laguna Team Page

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