There’s a Case for Backing Leafs

Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 18-19-4 Away) lock horns with Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 27-13-1 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round matchup at Scotiabank Arena. The Lefs lead the series 3-1.

There’s a strong case that the Maple Leafs win in regulation time and that means wagering the home team on the 3-Way Moneyline. You can get a juicy -105 that they overcome the Senators.

Overtime Win for Senators in Last H2H

When Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs met on Saturday night, the Sens managed a 4-3 (OT) victory at Canadian Tire Centre.

The Sens had 25 shots on goal, with Jake Sanderson being on target along with three of his teammates. The Leafs fired 34 shots on goal, with Matthew Knies, John Tavares and Oliver Ekman-Larsson each scoring one goal.

The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Sens win six times.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	19-13-3	2.78	.908	3
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	15-8-3	2.4	.917	1
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Ottawa Senators – Last 10 Games

5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 29.5 shots on goal, with a 18.9% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have been giving up 3.4 goals from 26.6 shots, averaging 4.2 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 81.0%.

Drake Batherson is the top points scorer with 10 points, 5 goals and 5 assists, with Thomas Chabot recording 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.00 goal against average with a .880 save percentage, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs – Last 10 Games

The Leafs have 8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.3 goals from 25.5 shots on goal, with a 14.3% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.0 goals from 27.7 shots, averaging 4.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.9%.

The top points scorer is Mitchell Marner with 15 points, 4 goals and 11 assists, while Auston Matthews is next best after registering 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.75 GAA with a .928 SV%, including two shutouts.

Expert NHL Analysis

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making NHL picks. Team news is also an important port of call, while the player and goalie stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Senators vs Maple Leafs stats:

Maple Leafs have won 5 of their last 5 games at home.
Maple Leafs have won 9 of their last 10 games at home.
Maple Leafs have won 9 consecutive games at home.
Senators have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
Senators have lost 15 of their last 24 games on the road this season.
Senators have lost their last 4 games on the road.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction

The -105 about Toronto Maple Leafs look really attractive when it comes to the 60-minute line. We think their opponents can be beaten in this NHL encounter, so this is our pick.

If you can correctly predict that Toronto will win along with the number of goals, then you are able to combine the two picks by going down the Match Winner & Total Goals route.

Leafs 3-Way Moneyline Probability

The sportsbooks imply that our pick has a 51.3% prospect of winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this hockey bet.

Our Pick

Maple Leafs 3-Way Moneyline @ -105 Bet Now

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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Published 21:43, 28 April 2025

Player Props

Top Pick: Drake Batherson Over 1.5 Shots -200

Drake Batherson (Senators) has recorded Over 1.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Shots on Goal and you can get -200 that he goes over the line.

Latest Drake Batherson Player Prop Odds

Goals

Shots on Goal

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Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Bet Builder Tips

3-Way Moneyline Maple Leafs

To Score Matthew Knies

Shots on Goal Drake Batherson Over 1.5

We’ve loaded up a same game parlay with the combined picks of the Maple Leafs claiming victory in 60 minutes, Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs) scoring and Drake Batherson (Senators) to have Over 1.5 shots.

A hockey bet builder is a fantastic way of cheering on different selections within the same game. You can predict a number of outcomes and get bigger odds than a single bet. The odds can combine to great effect.

Bet Boosts

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Correct Score Prediction

Senators

1 - 4 Maple Leafs logo

Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are available at +1300 to secure a 4-1 victory. Many bettors enjoy a correct score wager and there are some nice potential returns to be had.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

1-0

2-0

2-1

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Books Make Leafs Likelier Winners

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Toronto Maple Leafs as -175 favorites for this game, implying that they are 64% likely to win. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Ottawa Senators are trading at +146.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 5.5. NHL bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on Totals. If you want to back Over 5.5, it’s -115.

The good news is that you can access a wide range of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League encounter. The betting sites offer a great selection of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

3-Way Moneyline

Puck Line

Total Goals

Auston Matthews Favorite to Find the Net First

Auston Matthews can be backed to light the lamp at anytime at +102. He is the favorite to score the first goal at odds of +650.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

View More View Less

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

View More View Less

Micro Betting

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some bettors prefer to look at the NHL micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term wagers and this might include the Next Goalscorer or Next Goal.

Best Betting Offers

Last 5 & H2H

All
Home
Away

Last 5 Games

Senators

NHL Playoffs: 27/04 Maple Leafs3 Senators 4
NHL Playoffs: 25/04 Maple Leafs3 Senators 2
NHL Playoffs: 23/04 Senators2 Maple Leafs 3
NHL Playoffs: 21/04 Senators2 Maple Leafs 6
NHL: 18/04 Hurricanes5 Senators 7

Maple Leafs

NHL Playoffs: 27/04 Maple Leafs3 Senators 4
NHL Playoffs: 25/04 Maple Leafs3 Senators 2
NHL Playoffs: 23/04 Senators2 Maple Leafs 3
NHL Playoffs: 21/04 Senators2 Maple Leafs 6
NHL: 18/04 Red Wings3 Maple Leafs 4

Head to Head

Ottawa vs Toronto

NHL: 27/04 2025 Maple Leafs 3 Senators 4
NHL: 25/04 2025 Maple Leafs 3 Senators 2
NHL: 23/04 2025 Senators 2 Maple Leafs 3
NHL: 21/04 2025 Senators 2 Maple Leafs 6
NHL: 16/03 2025 Senators 4 Maple Leafs 2
NHL: 26/01 2025 Maple Leafs 1 Senators 2
NHL: 13/11 2024 Senators 3 Maple Leafs 0
NHL: 11/02 2024 Maple Leafs 3 Senators 5
NHL: 28/12 2023 Senators 4 Maple Leafs 2
NHL: 08/12 2023 Maple Leafs 4 Senators 3

Team Stats

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.70 pts and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 2.00 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 1.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

Goals Powerplay: 1
Shots: 29.5
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 4.2
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 9.7
Blocks: 18.3
Faceoff Wins : 27.2
Hits: 33.4
Giveaways: 14.2
Takeaways: 4.4

Last 10 Games on the Road

Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 28.4
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 4.2
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 9.8
Blocks: 15.4
Faceoff Wins : 28.5
Hits: 29.9
Giveaways: 13.2
Takeaways: 4.3

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 25.5
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 4.1
Empty Net Goals: 0.1
Penalty Minutes: 8.8
Blocks: 13.8
Faceoff Wins : 28.7
Hits: 24.4
Giveaways: 14.6
Takeaways: 5.4

Last 10 Home Games

Goals Powerplay: 0.9
Shots: 26.1
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 3.8
Empty Net Goals: 0
Penalty Minutes: 8.8
Blocks: 12.5
Faceoff Wins : 29.6
Hits: 25.9
Giveaways: 15.9
Takeaways: 5

Team News

Ottawa Senators Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
28	Claude Giroux	4	17.65	1	2	3	0
85	Jake Sanderson	4	27.58	1	2	3	-1
7	Brady Tkachuk	4	19	2	1	3	0

57	David Perron	4	13.2	1	1	2	1
43	Tyler Kleven	4	15.2	0	2	2	1
18	Tim Stutzle	4	20.75	1	1	2	-1
12	Shane Pinto	4	20.35	1	1	2	-1
81	Adam Gaudette	4	9.83	1	1	2	1
19	Drake Batherson	4	17.85	1	1	2	-2
71	Ridly Greig	4	18.05	1	0	1	-2
24	Dylan Cozens	4	16.68	0	1	1	-1
22	Michael Amadio	4	16.48	0	1	1	-2
72	Thomas Chabot	4	26.18	0	1	1	-3
2	Artyom Zub	4	23.48	0	1	1	-2
20	Fabian Zetterlund	4	14.55	0	0	0	-1
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	4	12.53	0	0	0	2
3	Nick Jensen	4	22.18	0	0	0	-3
21	Nick Cousins	3	10.43	0	0	0	0
15	Matthew Highmore	1	9.2	0	0	0	-1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
35	Linus Ullmark	4	3.44	0.848
31	Anton Forsberg	-	-	-

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
16	Mitchell Marner	4	23.25	1	6	7	4
34	Auston Matthews	4	21.68	1	5	6	4
88	William Nylander	4	18.95	1	5	6	0

91	John Tavares	4	17.5	3	2	5	0
23	Matthew Knies	4	20.8	3	0	3	3
44	Morgan Rielly	4	22.6	2	1	3	1
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	4	20.65	2	0	2	2
2	Simon Benoit	4	19.05	1	1	2	0
74	Bobby McMann	4	13.45	0	1	1	-2
89	Nick Robertson	2	10.3	0	1	1	0
22	Jake McCabe	4	23.2	0	1	1	2
11	Max Domi	4	14.28	1	0	1	-1
24	Scott Laughton	4	14.58	0	1	1	0
19	Calle Jaernkrok	4	13.03	0	1	1	0
8	Christopher Tanev	4	20.83	0	1	1	3
18	Steven Lorentz	4	12.38	0	0	0	0
29	Pontus Holmberg	4	13.85	0	0	0	1
67	Max Pacioretty	2	13.25	0	0	0	-2
25	Brandon Carlo	4	19.55	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
41	Anthony Stolarz	4	2.29	0.902
60	Joseph Woll	-	-	-

Injuries & Suspensions

Ottawa Senators Injury Table

Type

Name

Info

Hayden Hodgson

Injured

Toronto Maple Leafs Injury Table

Type

Name

Info

Jani Hakanpaeae

Injured

Starting Lineups

Line 1

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

41

Anthony Stolarz

22

Jake McCabe

8

Christopher Tanev

23

Matthew Knies

34

Auston Matthews

16

Mitchell Marner

28

Claude Giroux

18

Tim Stutzle

7

Brady Tkachuk

2

Artyom Zub

85

Jake Sanderson

35

Linus Ullmark

Line 2

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

41

Anthony Stolarz

44

Morgan Rielly

25

Brandon Carlo

29

Pontus Holmberg

91

John Tavares

88

William Nylander

19

Drake Batherson

24

Dylan Cozens

57

David Perron

3

Nick Jensen

72

Thomas Chabot

35

Linus Ullmark

Line 3

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

41

Anthony Stolarz

95

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

2

Simon Benoit

74

Bobby McMann

11

Max Domi

67

Max Pacioretty

22

Michael Amadio

12

Shane Pinto

71

Ridly Greig

33

Nikolas Matinpalo

43

Tyler Kleven

35

Linus Ullmark

Line 4

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

41

Anthony Stolarz

18

Steven Lorentz

24

Scott Laughton

19

Calle Jaernkrok

20

Fabian Zetterlund

81

Adam Gaudette

21

Nick Cousins

35

Linus Ullmark

Previous Ottawa Senators Lineups

26 Apr NHL Playoffs

Maple Leafs 3-4 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

24 Apr NHL Playoffs

Maple Leafs 3-2 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

22 Apr NHL Playoffs

Senators 2-3 Maple Leafs

Confirmed Lineups

20 Apr NHL Playoffs

Senators 2-6 Maple Leafs

Confirmed Lineups

17 Apr NHL

Hurricanes 5-7 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

15 Apr NHL

Blackhawks 4-3 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

13 Apr NHL

Flyers 3-4 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

11 Apr NHL

Canadiens 2-5 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

08 Apr NHL

Senators 2-5 Blue Jackets

Confirmed Lineups

06 Apr NHL

Blue Jackets 0-4 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

Previous Toronto Maple Leafs Lineups

26 Apr NHL Playoffs

Maple Leafs 3-4 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

24 Apr NHL Playoffs

Maple Leafs 3-2 Senators

Confirmed Lineups

22 Apr NHL Playoffs

Senators 2-3 Maple Leafs

Confirmed Lineups

20 Apr NHL Playoffs

Senators 2-6 Maple Leafs

Confirmed Lineups

17 Apr NHL

Red Wings 3-4 Maple Leafs

Confirmed Lineups

15 Apr NHL

Maple Leafs 4-0 Sabres

Confirmed Lineups

13 Apr NHL

Maple Leafs 4-1 Hurricanes

Confirmed Lineups

12 Apr NHL

Canadiens 0-1 Maple Leafs

Confirmed Lineups

09 Apr NHL

Maple Leafs 4-3 Lightning

Confirmed Lineups

08 Apr NHL

Maple Leafs 1-3 Panthers

Confirmed Lineups

NHL Standings

Metropolitan	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Carolina	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Columbus	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 New Jersey	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 NY Islanders	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 NY Rangers	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Philadelphia	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Pittsburgh	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Washington	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-

East Atlantic	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Boston	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Buffalo	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Detroit	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Florida	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Montreal	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Ottawa	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Tampa Bay	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Toronto	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-

East Central	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Chicago	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Colorado	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Dallas	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Minnesota	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Nashville	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 St Louis	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Utah	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Winnipeg	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-

West Pacific	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Anaheim	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Calgary	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Edmonton	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 LA Kings	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 San Jose	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Seattle	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Vancouver	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Vegas	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-

Eastern	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Boston	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Buffalo	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Detroit	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Florida	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Montreal	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Ottawa	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Tampa Bay	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Toronto	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Carolina	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Columbus	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 New Jersey	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 NY Islanders	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 NY Rangers	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Philadelphia	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Pittsburgh	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Washington	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-

Western	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Chicago	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Colorado	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Dallas	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Minnesota	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Nashville	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 St Louis	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Utah	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Winnipeg	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Anaheim	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Calgary	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Edmonton	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 LA Kings	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 San Jose	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Seattle	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Vancouver	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
1 Vegas	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-

	P%	Home	Road	S/O	L10	Strk
1 Anaheim	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
2 Boston	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
3 Buffalo	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
4 Calgary	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
5 Carolina	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
6 Chicago	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
7 Colorado	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
8 Columbus	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
9 Dallas	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
10 Detroit	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
11 Edmonton	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
12 Florida	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
13 LA Kings	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
14 Minnesota	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
15 Montreal	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
16 Nashville	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
17 New Jersey	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
18 NY Islanders	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
19 NY Rangers	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
20 Ottawa	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
21 Philadelphia	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
22 Pittsburgh	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
23 San Jose	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
24 Seattle	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
25 St Louis	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
26 Tampa Bay	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
27 Toronto	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
28 Utah	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
29 Vancouver	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
30 Vegas	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
31 Washington	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-
32 Winnipeg	-	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0	-	-