Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks & Odds | 29 Apr 2025

Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 18-19-4 Away) lock horns with Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 27-13-1 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round matchup at Scotiabank Arena. The Lefs lead the series 3-1.

There’s a strong case that the Maple Leafs win in regulation time and that means wagering the home team on the 3-Way Moneyline. You can get a juicy -105 that they overcome the Senators.

When Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs met on Saturday night, the Sens managed a 4-3 (OT) victory at Canadian Tire Centre.

The Sens had 25 shots on goal, with Jake Sanderson being on target along with three of his teammates. The Leafs fired 34 shots on goal, with Matthew Knies, John Tavares and Oliver Ekman-Larsson each scoring one goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Sens win six times.

Starting Goalies

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	11-8-4	3.1	.877	0
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	6-5-1	3.5	.884	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.5 goals from 29.5 shots on goal, with a 18.9% powerplay efficiency. The Sens have been giving up 3.4 goals from 26.6 shots, averaging 4.2 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 81.0%.

Drake Batherson is the top points scorer with 10 points, 5 goals and 5 assists, with Thomas Chabot recording 10 points, 3 goals and 7 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.00 goal against average with a .880 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Leafs have 8 wins, 1 loss and 1 overtime loss, averaging 3.3 goals from 25.5 shots on goal, with a 14.3% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.0 goals from 27.7 shots, averaging 4.1 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 82.9%.

The top points scorer is Mitchell Marner with 15 points, 4 goals and 11 assists, while Auston Matthews is next best after registering 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.75 GAA with a .928 SV%, including two shutouts.

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

The -105 about Toronto Maple Leafs look really attractive when it comes to the 60-minute line. We think their opponents can be beaten in this NHL encounter, so this is our pick.

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making NHL picks. Team news is also an important port of call, while the player and goalie stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Senators vs Maple Leafs stats:

• Maple Leafs have won 5 of their last 5 games at home.
• Maple Leafs have won 9 of their last 10 games at home.
• Maple Leafs have won 9 consecutive games at home.
• Senators have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Senators have lost 15 of their last 24 games on the road this season.
• Senators have lost their last 4 games on the road.

Leafs 3-Way Moneyline Probability

The sportsbooks imply that our pick has a 51.3% prospect of winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this hockey bet.

If you can correctly predict that Toronto will win along with the number of goals, then you are able to combine the two picks by going down the Match Winner & Total Goals route.

Our Game Prediction

Maple Leafs 3-Way Moneyline @ -105 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Batherson Over 1.5 Shots -200

Drake Batherson (Senators) has recorded Over 1.5 shots on goal in 8 of the past 10 games. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Shots on Goal and you can get -200 that he goes over the line.

Latest Drake Batherson Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+235

First

+1200

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Senators 1 - 4 Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are available at +1300 to secure a 4-1 victory. Many bettors enjoy a correct score wager and there are some nice potential returns to be had.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Senators

Maple Leafs

1-0

Senators

+4500

Maple Leafs

+4000

2-0

Senators

+5000

Maple Leafs

+3500

2-1

Senators

+1400

Maple Leafs

+1150

3-0

Senators

+4000

Maple Leafs

+2500

3-1

Senators

+2200

Maple Leafs

+1500

3-2

Senators

+900

Maple Leafs

+700

4-0

Senators

+5500

Maple Leafs

+2900

4-1

Senators

+2200

Maple Leafs

+1300

4-2

Senators

+2000

Maple Leafs

+1300

4-3

Senators

+1200

Maple Leafs

+950

5-0

Senators

+10000

Maple Leafs

+5000

5-1

Senators

+3500

Maple Leafs

+1900

5-2

Senators

+2500

Maple Leafs

+1500

5-3

Senators

+3000

Maple Leafs

+2200

5-4

Senators

+2500

Maple Leafs

+2000

6-0

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+7500

6-1

Senators

+9000

Maple Leafs

+4000

6-2

Senators

+5000

Maple Leafs

+2500

6-3

Senators

+4500

Maple Leafs

+2900

6-4

Senators

+6600

Maple Leafs

+5000

6-5

Senators

+6000

Maple Leafs

+5000

7-0

Senators

+6000

Maple Leafs

+12000

7-1

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+7500

7-2

Senators

+12500

Maple Leafs

+6600

7-3

Senators

+9000

Maple Leafs

+5500

7-4

Senators

+10000

Maple Leafs

+7000

7-5

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+11000

7-6

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+12500

8-1

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+12000

8-2

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+11000

8-3

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+12000

8-4

Senators

+14000

Maple Leafs

+11000

View More

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Toronto Maple Leafs as -175 favorites for this game, implying that they are 64% likely to win. If you’re looking for an alternative angle, Ottawa Senators are trading at +146.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 5.5. NHL bettors regularly enjoy the opportunity to wager on Totals. If you want to back Over 5.5, it’s -115.

The good news is that you can access a wide range of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League encounter. The betting sites offer a great selection of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Senators

+146

Maple Leafs

-175

3-Way Moneyline

Senators

+225

Tie

+340

Maple Leafs

-106

Puck Line

Senators +1.5

-189

Maple Leafs -1.5

+152

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-105

Over 5.5

-115

Auston Matthews can be backed to light the lamp at anytime at +102. He is the favorite to score the first goal at odds of +650.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+102

Anytime

+650

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+155

Anytime

+900

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+180

Anytime

+1000

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+190

Anytime

+1050

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+210

Anytime

+1150

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

First

+215

Anytime

+1150

Drake Batherson (Senators)

First

+235

Anytime

+1200

Tim Stützle (Senators)

First

+245

Anytime

+1300

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

First

+290

Anytime

+1500

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+335

Anytime

+1600

Claude Giroux (Senators)

First

+350

Anytime

+1700

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+370

Anytime

+1800

Max Pacioretty (Maple Leafs)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

Ridly Greig (Senators)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

Shane Pinto (Senators)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

David Perron (Senators)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+440

Anytime

+2000

Adam Gaudette (Senators)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Alexander Steeves (Maple Leafs)

First

+480

Anytime

+2200

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+105

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 3.5

-135

Under 3.5

+104

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

+110

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 2.5

+140

Under 2.5

-185

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

+135

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Drake Batherson (Senators)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

+135

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+140

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-130

Under 1.5

-100

Claude Giroux (Senators)

Over 1.5

-105

Under 1.5

-123

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some bettors prefer to look at the NHL micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term wagers and this might include the Next Goalscorer or Next Goal.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Ottawa Senators Stats

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.00 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.70 pts and allowed 3.30 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.70 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 2.00 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.90 goals and allowed 1.80 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 29.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9.7
• Blocks: 18.3
• Faceoff Wins : 27.2
• Hits: 33.4
• Giveaways: 14.2
• Takeaways: 4.4

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 28.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9.8
• Blocks: 15.4
• Faceoff Wins : 28.5
• Hits: 29.9
• Giveaways: 13.2
• Takeaways: 4.3

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 25.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 8.8
• Blocks: 13.8
• Faceoff Wins : 28.7
• Hits: 24.4
• Giveaways: 14.6
• Takeaways: 5.4

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.9
• Shots: 26.1
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.8
• Empty Net Goals: 0
• Penalty Minutes: 8.8
• Blocks: 12.5
• Faceoff Wins : 29.6
• Hits: 25.9
• Giveaways: 15.9
• Takeaways: 5

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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