Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction, Picks & Odds | 11 Oct 2025

NHL Betting Preview: Maple Leafs vs Red Wings

The Toronto Maple Leafs battle the Detroit Red Wings in this NHL matchup at Little Caesars Arena, with face-off scheduled for 19:00 on Saturday, October 11. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds, H2H stats, player stats, team news and the starting lineups.

Don’t Expect Fireworks

The Maple Leafs and the Red Wings might not have a very high combined goals total. We’ll therefore plump for the -133 that there are Under 6.5 goals.

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Leafs Overtime Victory in Last H2H

Toronto Maple Leafs won their previous game which was at home. It was a 5-2 triumph at Scotiabank Arena against Montreal Canadiens. Morgan Rielly was one of five different players on the scoresheet. Goalie Anthony Stolarz stopped 29 shots (.935).

Detroit Red Wings were defeated last time out. Little Caesars Arena saw them beaten at home to Montreal Canadiens by a 5-1 scoreline. Red Wings managed 31 shots and Dylan Larkin recorded the only goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The Leafs have claimed victories in the last two encounters against the Red Wings. At Little Caesars Arena, the scoreline was 5-2 and then we saw 4-3 (OT) at Scotiabank Arena. It’s been five wins for each team over the previous 10 H2H meetings.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Expected)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	1-0-0	2	.935	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Cam Talbot (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	0-0-0	0	1.000	0
23/24	27-20-4	2.5	.913	3

5 wins, 4 losses and 1 overtime loss, averaging 2.6 goals from 25.2 shots on goal, with a 7.3% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have been giving up 3.4 goals from 29.1 shots, averaging 4.1 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 90.2%.

William Nylander is the top points scorer with 12 points, 6 goals and 6 assists, with Max Pacioretty recording 8 points, 3 goals and 5 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Joseph Woll have a 3.56 goal against average with a .886 save percentage, including one shutout.

The Red Wings have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 2.9 goals from 28.0 shots on goal, with a 12.1% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 3.2 goals from 27.1 shots, averaging 2.2 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 86.4%.

The top points scorer is Dylan Larkin with 9 points, 3 goals and 6 assists, while Alex DeBrincat is next best after having 8 points, 6 goals and 2 assists. Goalie Cam Talbot have a 2.71 GAA with a .902 SV%.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Prediction & Picks

We cover the key Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings betting angles, showcasing our expert match prediction, best correct score selection, top player props and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

The teams could fail to light the lamp multiple times in this NHL game and that leads us to backing the -133 when it comes to going under the total goals line.

Sportsgambler.com brings strong NHL expertise, built on knowing the team news as soon as it’s confirmed. Recent form plays a big part in our hockey predictions and we always back it up with the most relevant stats.

Key Maple Leafs vs Red Wings stats:

• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Maple Leafs games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Maple Leafs games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Maple Leafs games on the road.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 6 of the last 10 Red Wings games at home.
• The 6.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 Red Wings games at home.

Under 6.5 Probability

The best betting apps imply that our pick has a 57.1% prospect of winning. After careful examination, our analysts calculate this probability to be somewhere between 60-65%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this hockey bet.

More juice from your Unders wager can be found by combining this selection when betting on Match Winner & Total Goals. Choose the odds which match your prediction.

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Best Bet

Under 6.5 Goals @ -133 Watch Live Bet Now

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Gamble responsibly 18+. All odds are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change. To use the Bookmaker Live Streaming services you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Geo-restrictions apply.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Dylan Larkin Under 2.5 Shots -120

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings) has fallen short of the 2.5 shots on goal total in 8 of the past 10 games. We’re expecting the same thing to happen here, with this Shots on Goal bet available at -120.

Latest Dylan Larkin Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+190

First

+1200

Assists

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-200

Shots on Goal

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-120

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 4 - 1 Red Wings

We’re predicting the Maple Leafs to land a 4-1 victory and this is available at +1300. The correct score betting option provides plenty of fun and entertainment.

Latest Correct Score Odds

Score

Maple Leafs

Red Wings

1-0

Maple Leafs

+5000

Red Wings

+5500

2-0

Maple Leafs

+4000

Red Wings

+5000

2-1

Maple Leafs

+1300

Red Wings

+1500

3-0

Maple Leafs

+2800

Red Wings

+3500

3-1

Maple Leafs

+1600

Red Wings

+2000

3-2

Maple Leafs

+800

Red Wings

+950

4-0

Maple Leafs

+3300

Red Wings

+5000

4-1

Maple Leafs

+1300

Red Wings

+1900

4-2

Maple Leafs

+1400

Red Wings

+1800

4-3

Maple Leafs

+1000

Red Wings

+1150

5-0

Maple Leafs

+5500

Red Wings

+9000

5-1

Maple Leafs

+2000

Red Wings

+3300

5-2

Maple Leafs

+1400

Red Wings

+2000

5-3

Maple Leafs

+2200

Red Wings

+2800

5-4

Maple Leafs

+2000

Red Wings

+2200

6-0

Maple Leafs

+8000

Red Wings

+14000

6-1

Maple Leafs

+4500

Red Wings

+8000

6-2

Maple Leafs

+2500

Red Wings

+4000

6-3

Maple Leafs

+2800

Red Wings

+3500

6-4

Maple Leafs

+4500

Red Wings

+5500

6-5

Maple Leafs

+5000

Red Wings

+5500

7-1

Maple Leafs

+7500

Red Wings

+13000

7-2

Maple Leafs

+6600

Red Wings

+11000

7-3

Maple Leafs

+5000

Red Wings

+7500

7-4

Maple Leafs

+6000

Red Wings

+8000

7-5

Maple Leafs

+10000

Red Wings

+12000

7-6

Maple Leafs

+12000

Red Wings

+12500

8-4

Maple Leafs

+11000

Red Wings

+14000

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Close Contest Likely According to the Books

The sportsbooks have Toronto Maple Leafs at -149 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the favorites are 60% likely to win this game according to the latest odds. For those wanting to back Detroit Red Wings, you will find +125 about the underdogs.

The puck line is 1.5 and the total goals line is currently 6.5. The Totals offers hockey bettors an alternative way of getting involved. If you want to back Over 6.5, it’s +110.

There’s no shortage of betting options, with a wide range of game lines and team props offered for every matchup. Explore the top NHL sportsbooks to find the picks that deliver the best value.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

-149

Red Wings

+125

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+104

Tie

+340

Red Wings

+200

Puck Line

Maple Leafs -1.5

+160

Red Wings +1.5

-200

Total Goals

Under 6.5

-133

Over 6.5

+110

Auston Matthews Favorite to Light the Lamp First

Those interested in favorite Auston Matthews to find the net first are able to get +850. If the Anytime Goalscorer angle makes appeal, then this is +110.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+110

Anytime

+850

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+160

Anytime

+1100

Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings)

First

+190

Anytime

+1200

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)

First

+190

Anytime

+1200

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+200

Anytime

+1200

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+200

Anytime

+1300

Lucas Raymond (Red Wings)

First

+230

Anytime

+1400

Patrick Kane (Red Wings)

First

+320

Anytime

+2000

Marco Kasper (Red Wings)

First

+333

Anytime

+2000

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+333

Anytime

+1900

Matias Maccelli (Maple Leafs)

First

+380

Anytime

+2500

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+450

Anytime

+2500

J.T. Compher (Red Wings)

First

+450

Anytime

+2800

Emmitt Finnie (Red Wings)

First

+475

Anytime

+3000

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+525

Anytime

+3000

Nicolas Roy (Maple Leafs)

First

+525

Anytime

+2800

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (Red Wings)

First

+550

Anytime

+3000

Dakota Joshua (Maple Leafs)

First

+550

Anytime

+2800

Andrew Copp (Red Wings)

First

+550

Anytime

+2800

Moritz Seider (Red Wings)

First

+800

Anytime

+4500

James van Riemsdyk (Red Wings)

First

+850

Anytime

+4000

Calle Jarnkrok (Maple Leafs)

First

+950

Anytime

+4000

Michael Rasmussen (Red Wings)

First

+950

Anytime

+5000

Mason Appleton (Red Wings)

First

+1000

Anytime

+5000

Steven Lorentz (Maple Leafs)

First

+1100

Anytime

+5000

Morgan Rielly (Maple Leafs)

First

+1100

Anytime

+5500

Simon Edvinsson (Red Wings)

First

+1100

Anytime

+5500

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Maple Leafs)

First

+1100

Anytime

+6000

Brandon Carlo (Maple Leafs)

First

+1800

Anytime

+8000

Jake McCabe (Maple Leafs)

First

+1800

Anytime

+8000

Player Assists

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-149

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-161

Moritz Seider (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-185

Morgan Rielly (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-189

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-200

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+145

Under 0.5

-200

Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-208

Lucas Raymond (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-208

Patrick Kane (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-200

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-208

Matias Maccelli (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+175

Under 0.5

-233

Marco Kasper (Red Wings)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-370

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-370

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

Over 0.5

+270

Under 0.5

-400

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-105

Under 3.5

-130

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-120

Under 2.5

-110

Alex DeBrincat (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

-164

Under 2.5

+125

Dylan Larkin (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

-110

Under 2.5

-120

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-141

Lucas Raymond (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-185

Patrick Kane (Red Wings)

Over 2.5

+125

Under 2.5

-175

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Marco Kasper (Red Wings)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+135

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Matias Maccelli (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-120

Under 1.5

-110

Moritz Seider (Red Wings)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Micro Betting

You don’t have to wait for the final outcome when it comes to NHL micro betting. Instead, there’s the opportunity to wager on live lines which tend to be settled in a shorter space of time and the in-game odds are always changing.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Detroit Red Wings Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 7 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.00 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.10 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 6.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.60 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 2.90 pts and allowed 2.20 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.10 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 6.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 2.90 goals and allowed 3.20 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.3
• Shots: 25.2
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.1
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 10.1
• Blocks: 21.9
• Faceoff Wins : 33.4
• Hits: 40.7
• Giveaways: 14.8
• Takeaways: 3.4

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 24.9
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.9
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9.2
• Blocks: 21.1
• Faceoff Wins : 30.4
• Hits: 31.7
• Giveaways: 15.2
• Takeaways: 4.8

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.4
• Shots: 28
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 2.2
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 4.4
• Blocks: 16.2
• Faceoff Wins : 24.7
• Hits: 21.3
• Giveaways: 15
• Takeaways: 4.7

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.8
• Shots: 29
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 3.4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 13
• Blocks: 14
• Faceoff Wins : 23.3
• Hits: 22.9
• Giveaways: 15.4
• Takeaways: 5

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Team News

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
88	William Nylander	1	18.7	1	2	3	2
91	John Tavares	1	17.6	0	2	2	2
44	Morgan Rielly	1	20.8	1	1	2	2

18	Steven Lorentz	1	12.2	0	2	2	2
74	Bobby McMann	1	15.9	1	0	1	1
63	Matias Maccelli	1	14.6	0	1	1	1
34	Auston Matthews	1	20.5	1	0	1	1
23	Matthew Knies	1	19.5	0	1	1	0
19	Calle Jaernkrok	1	11.2	1	0	1	1
22	Jake McCabe	1	24.1	0	0	0	2
25	Brandon Carlo	1	17.5	0	0	0	3
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	1	15.4	0	0	0	-1
55	Nicolas Roy	1	13.7	0	0	0	1
11	Max Domi	1	12.9	0	0	0	-1
2	Simon Benoit	1	16	0	0	0	1
89	Nick Robertson	1	10.7	0	0	0	-1
81	Dakota Joshua	1	12.3	0	0	0	-1
8	Christopher Tanev	1	23.1	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
41	Anthony Stolarz	1	2.01	0.935
	Cayden Primeau	-	-	-

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Detroit Red Wings Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
88	Patrick Kane	1	18.4	0	1	1	-1
53	Moritz Seider	1	22.9	0	1	1	-1
71	Dylan Larkin	1	18.3	1	0	1	0

	Axel Sandin Pellikka	1	22.6	0	0	0	0
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygaard	1	14.6	0	0	0	-2
92	Marco Kasper	1	14.7	0	0	0	-2
77	Simon Edvinsson	1	23.2	0	0	0	0
85	Elmer Soederblom	1	10.7	0	0	0	-2
20	Albert Johansson	1	15.1	0	0	0	-3
23	Lucas Raymond	1	17.9	0	0	0	0
22	Mason Appleton	1	13.9	0	0	0	-1
23	Travis Hamonic	1	13.6	0	0	0	-3
27	Michael Rasmussen	1	11.2	0	0	0	-2
37	J.T. Compher	1	14.8	0	0	0	0
93	Alex DeBrincat	1	19	0	0	0	-1
18	Andrew Copp	1	16.1	0	0	0	-1
8	Ben Chiarot	1	16.9	0	0	0	-1
58	Emmitt Finnie	1	12.4	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
36	John Gibson	1	8.06	0.615
39	Cam Talbot	1	-	1

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.