Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 10 Oct 2025
WNBA Betting Preview: Aces vs Mercury
The Las Vegas Aces clash with the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 20:00 on Friday, October 10. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.
We Can’t Resist Betting Aces to Win
We think that the Aces should prove too strong for the Mercury. Therefore, it’s all about going to the Moneyline to back the road team and there’s juice in the -145 available.
Confident Aces pulls out the W? Don’t forget to grab the BetMGM promo code and read our complete site review before placing your bet.
8 Wins for Aces in Past 10 H2H Games
The Las Vegas Aces claimed a narrow 90–88 win over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 3 on Wednesday night, moving 3–0 ahead in the series.
The Aces have racked up six straight victories over the Mercury. On the head-to-head front, the Aces have won 8 of the past 10.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks
We’ve lined up expert Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury betting tips, from our match prediction and correct score call to player prop picks and best bet builder advice. Read on for the full breakdown.
Game Prediction
The wager we really like for this WNBA contest is Aces on the Moneyline. Our pick is trading at -145 and this looks great value out of all the options.
Team news and current form always play a key role in shaping our expert basketball picks. We also dig into the latest stats and trends to help deliver the most accurate WNBA predictions possible.
Key Aces vs Mercury stats:
Aces Moneyline Probability
According to the top basketball betting sites, there’s a 59.2% likelihood of our pick landing a return. Our analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 65-70%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
The Match Result & Total lines not only give you a chance to back the Aces for the win but also combine this selection with a prediction for how many points will be scored.
Claim bonuses and free bets before placing a wager. Our in-depth guide shows you the best current betting offers.
Best Bet
Aces Moneyline @ -145
Player Prop Picks
Chelsea Gray (Aces) can be wagered to score Over 10.5 points at -119. There’s a fairly strong case that she will be able to cover the line and we’ll wager on her Player Points.
Latest Chelsea Gray Player Prop Odds
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Jewell Loyd (Aces) can be wagered to register Over 3.5 rebounds at +106. If you agree with our verdict that she can cover the Player Rebounds total, then you can back this selection.
Latest Jewell Loyd Player Prop Odds
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Same Game Parlay Picks
Get in the game with a same game parlay. Our picks are Aces on the moneyline, Over 163.5 on the total and Chelsea Gray (Aces) to score Over 10.5 points.
The betting sites now allow you to place a same game parlay on each individual game. It means that you can create a personalised basketball wager at bigger odds, with there generally being no limit as to the number of selections.
Correct Score Prediction
86
-
81
Mercury
Correct score betting might be tough to predict but there’s a tasty potential return if you get it right. We’ll try the Aces to achieve a 86-81 victory at huge odds.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Odds
The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.
Books Make Aces Moneyline Favorites
The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Las Vegas Aces as -145 favorites for this WNBA game, implying that they are 59% likely to win. Phoenix Mercury are trading at bigger odds than their opponents and they can be backed at +118.
The spread is calculated to be 3, while total points comes in at 163.5. There is no denying the popularity of wagering on the Totals. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 163.5 at -108.
If you’re wagering on women's basketball, we recommend heading to the top betting apps and scanning through the hundreds of team props and game lines. There’s the opportunity to bet pre-game and in-game.
A'ja Wilson Favorite to Get Most Points
A'ja Wilson is the favorite to score most points. She is priced at -112 to score Over 25.5 points. Alternatively, you can back Under at -115.
Last 5 & H2H
- WNBA: 09/10 2025 Aces 90 Mercury 88
- WNBA: 05/10 2025 Mercury 78 Aces 91
- WNBA: 04/10 2025 Mercury 86 Aces 89
- WNBA: 22/08 2025 Mercury 61 Aces 83
- WNBA: 16/08 2025 Aces 86 Mercury 83
- WNBA: 30/06 2025 Aces 84 Mercury 81
- WNBA: 16/06 2025 Mercury 76 Aces 70
- WNBA: 01/09 2024 Aces 97 Mercury 79
- WNBA: 14/06 2024 Aces 103 Mercury 99
- WNBA: 22/05 2024 Mercury 98 Aces 88
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Las Vegas Aces Stats
Phoenix Mercury Stats
- 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
- 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- -3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- -3 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games on the road
- +3 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
- +3 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 169.20 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 165.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 163.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 86.40 pts and allowed 82.80 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 85.80 pts and allowed 79.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 161.50 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 159.50 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 163.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 163.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 81.40 pts and allowed 80.10 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 81.80 pts and allowed 77.70 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Lynx
|
34 | 10 | 3787 | 3373 | 414 | 20-2 | 14-8 | 1W |
|
2
Aces
|
30 | 14 | 3680 | 3552 | 128 | 17-5 | 13-9 | 16W |
3
Dream
|
30 | 14 | 3712 | 3378 | 334 | 16-6 | 14-8 | 6W |
|
4
Mercury
|
27 | 17 | 3643 | 3525 | 118 | 15-7 | 12-10 | 3L |
5
Liberty
|
27 | 17 | 3713 | 3534 | 179 | 17-5 | 10-12 | 3W |
6
Fever
|
24 | 20 | 3734 | 3586 | 148 | 13-9 | 11-11 | 3W |
7
Storm
|
23 | 21 | 3614 | 3524 | 90 | 10-12 | 13-9 | 1W |
8
Valkyries
|
23 | 21 | 3420 | 3359 | 61 | 14-8 | 9-13 | 3L |
9
Sparks
|
21 | 23 | 3769 | 3882 | -113 | 9-13 | 12-10 | 1L |
10
Mystics
|
16 | 28 | 3394 | 3589 | -195 | 10-12 | 6-16 | 10L |
11
Sun
|
11 | 33 | 3337 | 3782 | -445 | 7-15 | 4-18 | 2L |
12
Sky
|
10 | 34 | 3335 | 3777 | -442 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 4L |
13
Wings
|
10 | 34 | 3594 | 3871 | -277 | 6-16 | 4-18 | 1W |
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