Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 22 Mar 2026

La Liga Betting Preview: Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid

Second-placed Real Madrid clash with fourth-placed Atlético Madrid in the El Derbi Madrileño at Santiago Bernabéu, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Sunday 22 March.

We believe that Real will get the better of Atléti and Los Merengues are excellent value at -108. Based on recent form and home and away xG data, the Full-Time Result odds look really attractive and we’re confident of landing a return here.

Real Madrid won their last league game 4-1 at home against Elche, making it successive La Liga victories. Los Merengues recorded 47% possession and managed six shots on target, with Antonio Ruediger, Federico Valverde, Dean Huijsen and Arda Guler scoring one goal apiece.

On Tuesday night, Real progressed to the Champions League quarter-finals after beating Manchester City 2-1 away in the second leg of the round of 16 tie (5-1 on aggregate).

Atlético Madrid beat Getafe in their previous game, making it four straight league victories. It was a 1-0 home win at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Diego Simeone's men enjoyed 66% possession and managed five shots on goal, with an early first half strike from Nahuel Molina proving the difference.

Four days ago, Atlético Madrid advanced to the Champions League quarter-finals despite a 3-2 away defeat to Tottenham in the second leg of their round of 16 tie, winning 7-5 on aggregate.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The most recent Madrid derby ended in a 5-2 home win for Atléti at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The past 10 H2H matches have featured four draws and three wins for each team.

La Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Real Madrid	34	24	5	5	70	31	39	70:31	77
4	Atlético Madrid	34	19	6	9	58	37	21	58:37	63

View Full Table

Real have 8 wins and 2 losses, averaging 2.4 goals from 6.2 shots on goal and 15.7 attempts. Alvaro Arbeloa's team have averaged 60.7% possession, 617.2 passes and 6.8 corners per match, with their opponents getting 0.8 goals from 2.3 shots on goal, 9.9 attempts and 3.9 corners.

Top goalscorer Kylian Mbappe has found the net 5 times, with Gonzalo Garcia and Vinicius Junior scoring 4 each. Arda Guler and Federico Valverde are tied for the most assists on 3, with goalie Thibaut Courtois managing 3 clean sheets.

Atléti have 6 victories, 2 defeats and 2 draws, with an average of 1.4 goals from 14.7 attempts and 5.3 shots on goal. There’s been an average of 58.9% possession, 558.7 passes, 7.0 corners awarded and 4.1 corners against them, while they’ve conceded 0.9 goals from 9.8 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal.

Alexander Soerloth has landed 6 goals, Nico Gonzalez 2, with Nahuel Molina and two others scoring 1. Matteo Ruggeri has been the top assist maker on 3, with Jan Oblak and Juan Musso collectively notching 3 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Real Madrid confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Andriy Lunin (GK), Daniel Carvajal, Antonio Ruediger, Dean Huijsen, Francisco Garcia, Federico Valverde, Thiago Pitarch, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Guler, Brahim Diaz, Vinicius Junior.

Atlético Madrid confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Juan Musso (GK), Marcos Llorente, Robin Le Normand, David Hancko, Matteo Ruggeri, Giuliano Simeone, Johnny Cardoso, Koke, Ademola Lookman, Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.

Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips

We bring you the complete Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid betting insight, including our top match prediction, correct score forecast, key corners pick, player prop advice and a ready-made bet builder.

Match Prediction

We’ve identified a value bet in the form of Real who are trading at odds of -108. There’s plenty of juice in the price when it comes to this selection and they should win the Madrid derby.

We study the La Liga form as a first port of call and also make sure we’re across any injuries before making our football predictions. Then it’s a case of understanding the sort of narrative that the stats provide.

Key Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid league stats:

• Real have won 17 of their last 20 games at home.
• Real have won 8 of their last 10 games.
• Real have won 2 consecutive games.

When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 51.8% chance of winning. However, our tipsters in-depth research has found that the actual probability is between 55-60%. It’s the reason why we are recommending this bet.

There are ways to squeeze more juice from backing Real. The Result & Both Teams to Score and Double Result markets are great alternatives and the same applies to Asian Handicap.

Before you dive in, check our guide for the newest betting promotions and generous sign-up bonuses.

Our Match Prediction

Real To Win @ -108 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 20, 21:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Real 1 - 0 Atléti

Los Merengues are available at +850 when it comes to them winning 1-0. We like a correct score play and the chance to bag a nice return if our prediction is right.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Federico Valverde Over 1.5 Shots -154

Federico Valverde (Real) has had over 1.5 shots in three consecutive La Liga games. We’re anticipating that he is able to perform well and cover the Player Shots line, with odds of -154 currently available.

Latest Federico Valverde Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+330

First

+1000

Shots

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-

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Vinicius Junior to Score +190

Vinicius Junior (Real) has racked up four goals in his past nine La Liga matches. Based on the numbers, we are looking to bet the +190 for him to find the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Vinicius Junior Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+160

First

+475

Shots

Over 4.5

+132

Under 4.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Over 10.5 Corners -100

There has been four straight Atléti away matches where 10.5 Total Corners has been covered, while it has been an average of 10.90 corners in the previous ten Real home games. We’re content to wager the -100 for the teams to cover the Total Corners line as this looks appealing.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Real

Total

10.70 6.80 3.90

Home

10.90 7.40 3.50

Away

10.10 6.60 3.50

Atléti

Total

11.10 7.00 4.10

Home

12.40 8.80 3.60

Away

10.10 5.20 4.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-100

Under 10.5

-143

Real Corners

Over 5.5

-133

Under 5.5

-106

Atléti Corners

Over 3.5

-156

Under 3.5

+110

Most Corners

1

-200

X

+700

2

+190

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookmakers have Real Madrid as -104 favourites for this La Liga encounter, with the 1x2 odds suggesting that they are 51% likely to triumph. Atlético Madrid are an outside chance to get the job done and you can now back them at +255.

You can choose Real -0.5 or Atléti +0.5 at respective Asian Handicap odds of -105 and -118. The former is the same as betting the favourites to win, with the latter giving you a return if it’s a draw.

If you’re anticipating a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals has the shortest odds. If you are expecting both teams to score, there’s the chance to back Yes at -208 on the BTTS market.

If you visit one of the recommended sports betting sites, it’s fantastic to access hundreds of markets for whichever La Liga match appeals. Scan through the choices and pick your football wager.

Full-Time Result

1

-104

X

+280

2

+255

Half-Time Result

1

+143

X

+143

2

+280

Double Chance

1X

-357

12

-385

X2

-125

Draw No Bet

1

-222

2

+150

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-105

2 Hcp +0.5

-118

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+140

Over 2.5

-182

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-208

No

+150

Kylian Mbappé is priced at +280 when it comes to First Goalscorer. He’s the favourite and also available at odds of -125 to find the net anytime.

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

First

-125

Anytime

+280

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

First

+120

Anytime

+370

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

First

+125

Anytime

+370

Vinicius Junior (Real)

First

+160

Anytime

+475

Gonzalo García (Real)

First

+170

Anytime

+510

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

First

+270

Anytime

+850

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

First

+300

Anytime

+900

Jude Bellingham (Real)

First

+320

Anytime

+950

Federico Valverde (Real)

First

+330

Anytime

+1000

Arda Guler (Real)

First

+350

Anytime

+1000

Álex Baena (Atléti)

First

+400

Anytime

+1200

Franco Mastantuono (Real)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Brahim Díaz (Real)

First

+450

Anytime

+1300

Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real)

First

+480

Anytime

+1300

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

First

+500

Anytime

+1500

Nicolás González (Atléti)

First

+525

Anytime

+1500

Rodrigo Mendoza (Atléti)

First

+575

Anytime

+1700

Eduardo Camavinga (Real)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real)

First

+750

Anytime

+2200

Dani Carvajal (Real)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

David Jiménez (Real)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

Over 4.5

-127

Under 4.5

-

Vinicius Junior (Real)

Over 4.5

+132

Under 4.5

-

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

Over 2.5

-137

Under 2.5

-

Gonzalo García (Real)

Over 2.5

-154

Under 2.5

-

Federico Valverde (Real)

Over 2.5

+104

Under 2.5

-

Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Brahim Díaz (Real)

Over 1.5

+132

Under 1.5

-

Franco Mastantuono (Real)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

Álex Baena (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Arda Guler (Real)

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-

Jude Bellingham (Real)

Over 1.5

-110

Under 1.5

-

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

Over 1.5

-114

Under 1.5

-

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

Over 1.5

-159

Under 1.5

-

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

-

Nicolás González (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Eduardo Camavinga (Real)

Over 0.5

-115

Under 0.5

-

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real)

Over 0.5

-102

Under 0.5

-

Dani Carvajal (Real)

Over 0.5

+118

Under 0.5

-

David Jiménez (Real)

Over 0.5

+114

Under 0.5

-

Real have clocked up nine wins and one loss in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 3.00 goals per match and conceding 0.70.

Atléti have collected four wins, three draws and three defeats in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.00 goals per match and conceding 0.90.

Real were 2-1 victors against Atléti last time out at Santiago Bernabéu. The past 7 H2H meetings at Santiago Bernabéu have included four Real wins along with three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Real Madrid Home Stats		9-0-1	3.70	3.00	0.70	7	3	6	4
Atlético Madrid Away Stats		4-3-3	1.90	1.00	0.90	3	7	3	7

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Lineups & Team News

Be prepared — check the Real vs Atléti team news before wagering. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed La Liga lineups plus current injury reports.

Real Madrid Team Page Atlético Madrid Team Page

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