Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 21 Mar 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: Louisville vs Michigan State

No. 6 Louisville Cardinals go up against No. 3 Michigan State Spartans in this NCAA Tournament Second Round game at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with tip-off scheduled for 14:45 on Saturday, March 21.

We think that 150.5 is a more than generous total for Over backers when Louisville meet Michigan State. Take the -115 that we see the teams combine to good effect.

The Louisville Cardinals (24-10, 6th in ACC) progressed to the Second Round with an 83-79 win over the South Florida Bulls.

The Michigan State Spartans (26-7, 2nd in Big Ten) are coming off a 92-67 First Round win over the North Dakota State Bison.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 73-64 win for Michigan State when they last played Louisville.

NCAAB Regular Season	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Michigan State	25-7	2526	2189	337	17-3	8-4	2L
Louisville	23-10	2797	2382	415	16-2	7-8	1L

View Full Standings

Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction & Picks

Head into Louisville vs Michigan State with expert betting insights, including our main match prediction, best correct score pick and a value-driven bet builder. Dive into each section below for more.

Game Prediction

We’re expecting Over 150.5 points to be scored by the two teams combined. There’s a juicy -115 for our pick and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over in this college contest.

We only publish our basketball picks once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every college hoops prediction we make.

Key Louisville vs Michigan State stats:

• The 150.5 line has been covered in the last 7 Louisville games on the road.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 Louisville games on the road.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Louisville games.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in the last 4 MSU games.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 MSU games.

Over 150.5 Probability

The top betting sites are estimating that there is a 53.5% likelihood of this pick winning. In the opinion of our analysts, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. This college basketball bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

Want more juice from your Over bet on the Totals? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier wager. You can choose from a range of options.

Before your next wager, read our guide featuring today’s top betting offers, free bet deals, and sign-up bonuses.

Our Game Prediction

Over 150.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

BetMGM Promo Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Get Bonus T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 20, 19:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Louisville 74 - 81 Michigan State

There are a range of correct score lines to choose from and we’re taking a chance on the Spartans to record a 81-74 victory. There’s a huge return if we get this right.

T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Louisville vs Michigan State Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this college game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Michigan State are -196 favorites to win and that means a 66% chance of landing a victory. Louisville are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +162.

4.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 150.5 right now. Basketball fans regularly enjoy the opportunity to bet on the Totals. If you fancy Over 150.5, this outcome can be backed at -115.

There are plenty of team props and game lines when it comes to wagering on college matchups and we recommend visiting the best basketball sportsbooks to find the wager that matches your view on the game.

Moneyline

Louisville

+162

MSU

-196

Point Spread

Louisville +4.5

-110

MSU -4.5

-110

Total Points

Under 150.5

-105

Over 150.5

-115

We’re fond of player props as an alternative to betting on the game result. The gambling sites will have Points, Assists, Three-Pointers, Rebounds and Steals among the choices and you can take a particular view.

Among the various options for wagering on college basketball, you will find that micro betting is provided. It focuses on short-term in-game outcomes such as Next Field Goal, where you select if the shot will be a two or three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Louisville Stats

Michigan State Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 154.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 158.90 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 150.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Over 150.5 on the Road: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 79.00 pts and allowed 75.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.70 pts and allowed 79.20 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 156.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 151.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 150.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 150.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.40 pts and allowed 76.30 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 81.90 pts and allowed 70.00 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAB Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big Ten	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Michigan	31-3	2952	2353	599	19-2	12-1	1L
Nebraska	26-6	2473	2119	354	19-3	7-3	1L
Michigan State	25-7	2526	2189	337	17-3	8-4	2L
Purdue	27-8	2858	2455	403	16-5	11-3	4W
Illinois	24-8	2700	2234	466	15-6	9-2	1L
Wisconsin	24-10	2822	2581	241	16-2	8-8	1L
UCLA	23-11	2643	2414	229	18-3	5-8	1L
Ohio State	21-12	2633	2402	231	15-5	6-7	1L
Iowa	21-12	2482	2177	305	17-3	4-9	1L
Indiana	18-14	2501	2309	192	15-6	3-8	2L
USC	18-14	2515	2494	21	11-7	7-7	8L
Washington	16-17	2545	2430	115	11-6	5-11	1L
Minnesota	15-17	2241	2193	48	13-8	2-9	1L
Northwestern	15-19	2487	2447	40	11-9	4-10	1L
Rutgers	14-19	2329	2479	-150	11-7	3-12	1L
Oregon	12-20	2267	2366	-99	10-10	2-10	1L
Penn State	12-20	2358	2539	-181	10-10	2-10	3L
Maryland	12-21	2300	2527	-227	9-8	3-13	1L

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	32-2	2798	2147	651	21-0	11-2	11W
Virginia	29-5	2742	2326	416	19-1	10-4	1L
Miami	25-8	2704	2349	355	16-4	9-4	1L
North Carolina	24-8	2553	2282	271	19-1	5-7	2L
Clemson	24-10	2521	2269	252	16-3	8-7	1L
Louisville	23-10	2797	2382	415	16-2	7-8	1L
California	21-11	2492	2344	148	17-4	4-7	2L
Stanford	20-12	2431	2326	105	12-7	8-5	1L
NC State	20-13	2762	2525	237	13-7	7-6	1L
SMU	20-13	2779	2561	218	17-3	3-10	1L
Virginia Tech	19-13	2521	2396	125	15-4	4-9	2L
Florida State	18-15	2652	2572	80	12-8	6-7	1L
Wake Forest	17-16	2602	2543	59	12-6	5-10	1L
Syracuse	15-17	2400	2376	24	12-6	3-11	6L
Notre Dame	13-18	2308	2335	-27	11-7	2-11	2L
Pittsburgh	13-20	2327	2370	-43	8-10	5-10	1L
Boston College	11-20	2090	2191	-101	10-10	1-10	1W
Georgia Tech	11-20	2287	2400	-113	10-10	1-10	12L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

Top Basketball Pages