Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 21 Mar 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: Louisville vs Michigan State

No. 6 Louisville Cardinals go up against No. 3 Michigan State Spartans in this NCAA Tournament Second Round game at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with tip-off scheduled for 13:45 on Saturday, March 21.

We think that 150.5 is a more than generous total for Over backers when Louisville meet Michigan State. Take the -115 that we see the teams combine to good effect.

The Louisville Cardinals (24-10, 6th in ACC) progressed to the Second Round with an 83-79 win over the South Florida Bulls.

The Michigan State Spartans (26-7, 2nd in Big Ten) are coming off a 92-67 First Round win over the North Dakota State Bison.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It was a 73-64 win for Michigan State when they last played Louisville.

NCAAB Regular Season	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Michigan State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Louisville	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

View Full Standings

Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction & Picks

Head into Louisville vs Michigan State with expert betting insights, including our main match prediction, best correct score pick and a value-driven bet builder. Dive into each section below for more.

Game Prediction

We’re expecting Over 150.5 points to be scored by the two teams combined. There’s a juicy -115 for our pick and we’re anticipating that the scoreboard will tick over in this college contest.

We only publish our basketball picks once we’ve got a clear and confident read on team news and the latest form. We also stay sharp by digging into the most valuable stats to support every college hoops prediction we make.

Key Louisville vs Michigan State stats:

• The 150.5 line has been covered in the last 7 Louisville games on the road.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 Louisville games on the road.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in 14 of the last 20 Louisville games.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in the last 4 MSU games.
• The 150.5 line has been covered in 6 of the last 10 MSU games.

Over 150.5 Probability

The top betting sites are estimating that there is a 53.5% likelihood of this pick winning. In the opinion of our analysts, there’s actually a probability of success closer to 60%. This college basketball bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

Want more juice from your Over bet on the Totals? Bigger odds can be found if you move the line and go for a riskier wager. You can choose from a range of options.

Before your next wager, read our guide featuring today’s top betting offers, free bet deals, and sign-up bonuses.

Our Game Prediction

Over 150.5 Points @ -115 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 20, 18:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Louisville 74 - 81 Michigan State

There are a range of correct score lines to choose from and we’re taking a chance on the Spartans to record a 81-74 victory. There’s a huge return if we get this right.

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Louisville vs Michigan State Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this college game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Michigan State are -213 favorites to win and that means a 68% chance of landing a victory. Louisville are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +176.

4.5 is where the spread lies, with total points being 151.5 right now. Basketball fans regularly enjoy the opportunity to bet on the Totals. If you fancy Over 151.5, this outcome can be backed at -110.

There are plenty of team props and game lines when it comes to wagering on college matchups and we recommend visiting the best basketball sportsbooks to find the wager that matches your view on the game.

Moneyline

Louisville

+176

MSU

-213

Point Spread

Louisville +4.5

-104

MSU -4.5

-118

Total Points

Under 151.5

-110

Over 151.5

-110

We’re fond of player props as an alternative to betting on the game result. The gambling sites will have Points, Assists, Three-Pointers, Rebounds and Steals among the choices and you can take a particular view.

Among the various options for wagering on college basketball, you will find that micro betting is provided. It focuses on short-term in-game outcomes such as Next Field Goal, where you select if the shot will be a two or three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Louisville Stats

Michigan State Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 4 of the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 154.90 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 150.5: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 79.00 pts and allowed 75.90 pts in the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 156.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 150.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.40 pts and allowed 76.30 pts in the last 10 games

NCAAB Regular Season Table Select Season 2026/20272025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big Ten	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Illinois	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Oregon	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Washington	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
UCLA	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
USC	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Rutgers	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Purdue	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Penn State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Ohio State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Indiana	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Northwestern	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Nebraska	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Minnesota	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Michigan	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Michigan State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Maryland	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Iowa	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Wisconsin	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Boston College	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
North Carolina	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Virginia Tech	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Virginia	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Syracuse	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
SMU	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Pittsburgh	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Notre Dame	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
NC State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
California	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Miami	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Louisville	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Georgia Tech	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Florida State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Duke	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Clemson	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Wake Forest	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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