Michigan State vs UConn Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Mar 2026

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: Michigan State vs UConn

The No. 3 Michigan State Spartans square off against the No. 2 UConn Huskies in this NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 West Region game at the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, with tip-off scheduled for 21:45 on Friday, March 27.

We think a wager on the totals provides value after finding that the line is set at a generous 134.5. Expect Michigan State and UConn to surpass this number at -110.

The Michigan State Spartans (27-7, 2nd in Big Ten) enter the Sweet 16 playing their most complete basketball of the season. After a dominant 92-67 opening-round win over the North Dakota State Bison, Tom Izzo’s squad proved they could handle high-stakes pressure by grinding out a 77-69 victory against the Louisville Cardinals in the Second Round.

The defending champion UConn (31-5, 2nd in Big East) continue their march toward a three-peat, entering the Sweet 16 with significant momentum. Their tournament run began with a professional 82-71 victory over Furman in the First Round, where the Huskies weathered an early push from the Paladins to pull away late.

UConn followed that up by showcasing their championship DNA in the Second Round, delivering a dominant 73-57 dismantling of the UCLA Bruins.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Michigan State beat UConn 64-60 in their last official meeting on November 24, 2021, during the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis at Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas.

The teams more recently met in an exhibition game on October 28, 2025, where UConn secured a 76-69 victory.

NCAAB Regular Season	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
UConn	29-5	2635	2214	421	18-2	11-3	1L
Michigan State	25-7	2526	2189	337	17-3	8-4	2L

View Full Standings

Michigan State vs UConn Prediction & Picks

Explore our best Michigan State vs UConn picks, including our main match prediction, correct score forecast, player performance props and a bet builder ready to use.

Game Prediction

The total line looks to be on the low side at 134.5. There’s a strong chance that the college rivals will conspire to go above the line and we’re backing Over at -110.

Our team of college basketball handicappers track current injuries closely. Combined with recent form, this helps us identify the best value odds. A data-led approach backed by key stats and the latest team news keeps our analysis sharp.

Key Michigan State vs UConn stats:

• The 134.5 line has been covered in the last 7 MSU games.
• The 134.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 MSU games.
• The 134.5 line has been covered in 17 of the last 20 MSU games.
• The 134.5 line has been covered in 12 of the last 20 UConn games.

Over 134.5 Probability

If you go by the best sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.4% chance of landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

If you’re wanting bigger odds when wagering on the Totals, then the good news is that you can be in control of the line. Get more juice by betting Over a certain number.

Maximize your next wager by exploring our top betting offers filled with welcome bonuses, promos, and the best free bets.

Our Game Prediction

Over 134.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 27, 02:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tarris Reed Jr. Over 14.5 Points +109

Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn) can be wagered to total Over 14.5 points at +109. We think that the line looks really appealing for this Player Points bet as we’re expecting him to cover this total.

Latest Tarris Reed Jr. Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 13.5

-111

Under 13.5

-116

Rebounds

Over 8.5

-141

Under 8.5

+109

---

Carson Cooper Over 9.5 Points -127

Carson Cooper (Michigan State) can be wagered to total Over 9.5 points at -127. We are going to choose a Player Points prop bet which will hopefully see him cover the line.

Latest Carson Cooper Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 9.5

-127

Under 9.5

-102

Rebounds

Over 6.5

+110

Under 6.5

-143

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Michigan State 66 - 72 UConn

There are lots of different betting angles including the chance to back the Huskies on the correct score lines. For example, a 72-66 victory in their favor is available at massive odds.

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Michigan State vs UConn Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

UConn are on offer at -120 on the Moneyline if you want to back this franchise, with Michigan State available at -100. If you want to know the probability of the road team winning this college game, it’s 50% according to the most popular sportsbooks.

The current spread is 1.5 and total points is 134.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball bets. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 134.5 at -115.

College hoops fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of team props and game lines which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

MSU

-100

UConn

-120

Point Spread

MSU +1.5

-114

UConn -1.5

-106

Total Points

Under 134.5

-105

Over 134.5

-115

The favorite to hit the most buckets is Jeremy Fears Jr.. Odds of -114 can be found for him scoring Over 16.5 points and there are the same odds for him to go Under.

Jeremy Fears Jr. (MSU)

Over 16.5

-114

Under 16.5

-114

Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn)

Over 13.5

-111

Under 13.5

-116

Braylon Mullins (UConn)

Over 12.5

-130

Under 12.5

-100

Alex Karaban (UConn)

Over 12.5

-114

Under 12.5

-114

Coen Carr (MSU)

Over 11.5

-106

Under 11.5

-122

Solo Ball (UConn)

Over 9.5

-130

Under 9.5

-100

Carson Cooper (MSU)

Over 9.5

-127

Under 9.5

-102

Jaxon Kohler (MSU)

Over 9.5

-122

Under 9.5

-106

Silas Demary Jr. (UConn)

Over 9.5

+109

Under 9.5

-141

Kur Teng (MSU)

Over 6.5

-109

Under 6.5

-119

Silas Demary Jr. (UConn)

Over 5.5

-125

Under 5.5

-103

Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn)

Over 8.5

-141

Under 8.5

+109

Jaxon Kohler (MSU)

Over 8.5

-110

Under 8.5

-118

Carson Cooper (MSU)

Over 6.5

+110

Under 6.5

-143

Coen Carr (MSU)

Over 5.5

-123

Under 5.5

-105

Alex Karaban (UConn)

Over 4.5

-152

Under 4.5

+116

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Michigan State Stats

UConn Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 154.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 134.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 79.60 pts and allowed 75.00 pts in the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 137.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 134.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 72.90 pts and allowed 64.80 pts in the last 10 games

NCAAB Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big East	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
UConn	29-5	2635	2214	421	18-2	11-3	1L
St. John's	28-6	2773	2379	394	18-3	10-3	6W
Villanova	24-8	2469	2265	204	15-4	9-4	1L
Seton Hall	21-12	2321	2156	165	13-5	8-7	1L
DePaul	16-16	2248	2226	22	12-9	4-7	3L
Butler	16-16	2540	2481	59	13-8	3-8	1L
Georgetown	16-18	2503	2479	24	10-8	6-10	1L
Creighton	15-17	2404	2401	3	11-6	4-11	1L
Providence	15-18	2815	2772	43	10-7	5-11	1L
Xavier	15-18	2586	2661	-75	13-7	2-11	1L
Marquette	12-20	2405	2425	-20	10-9	2-11	1L

Big Ten	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Michigan	31-3	2952	2353	599	19-2	12-1	1L
Nebraska	26-6	2473	2119	354	19-3	7-3	1L
Michigan State	25-7	2526	2189	337	17-3	8-4	2L
Purdue	27-8	2858	2455	403	16-5	11-3	4W
Illinois	24-8	2700	2234	466	15-6	9-2	1L
Wisconsin	24-10	2822	2581	241	16-2	8-8	1L
UCLA	23-11	2643	2414	229	18-3	5-8	1L
Ohio State	21-12	2633	2402	231	15-5	6-7	1L
Iowa	21-12	2482	2177	305	17-3	4-9	1L
Indiana	18-14	2501	2309	192	15-6	3-8	2L
USC	18-14	2515	2494	21	11-7	7-7	8L
Washington	16-17	2545	2430	115	11-6	5-11	1L
Minnesota	15-17	2241	2193	48	13-8	2-9	1L
Northwestern	15-19	2487	2447	40	11-9	4-10	1L
Rutgers	14-19	2329	2479	-150	11-7	3-12	1L
Oregon	12-20	2267	2366	-99	10-10	2-10	1L
Penn State	12-20	2358	2539	-181	10-10	2-10	3L
Maryland	12-21	2300	2527	-227	9-8	3-13	1L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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