Michigan State vs UConn Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Mar 2026

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Betting Preview: Michigan State vs UConn

The No. 3 Michigan State Spartans square off against the No. 2 UConn Huskies in this NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 East Region game at the Capital One Arena in Washington, DC, with tip-off scheduled for 20:45 on Friday, March 27.

We’re finding value on the Over 134.5 when these two programs meet. The line is set low enough that we expect Michigan State and UConn to surpass this total, making the -110 price a strong play for those anticipating a high-scoring affair.

The Michigan State Spartans (27-7, 2nd in Big Ten) enter the Sweet 16 playing their most complete basketball of the season. After a dominant 92-67 opening-round win over the North Dakota State Bison, Tom Izzo’s squad proved they could handle high-stakes pressure by grinding out a 77-69 victory against the Louisville Cardinals in the Second Round.

The defending champion UConn (31-5, 2nd in Big East) continue their march toward a three-peat, entering the Sweet 16 with significant momentum. Their tournament run began with a professional 82-71 victory over Furman in the First Round, where the Huskies weathered an early push from the Paladins to pull away late.

UConn followed that up by showcasing their championship DNA in the Second Round, delivering a dominant 73-57 dismantling of the UCLA Bruins.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Michigan State beat UConn 64-60 in their last official meeting on November 24, 2021, during the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis at Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas.

The teams more recently met in an exhibition game on October 28, 2025, where UConn secured a 76-69 victory.

NCAAB Regular Season	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
UConn	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Michigan State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

View Full Standings

Michigan State vs UConn Prediction & Picks

Explore our best Michigan State vs UConn picks, including our main match prediction, correct score forecast, player performance props and a same game parlay ready to use.

Game Prediction

The total line looks to be on the low side at 134.5. There’s a strong chance these East Region rivals will combine to go over the total, and we’re backing the Over at -110.

Our team of college basketball handicappers track current injuries closely. Combined with recent form, this helps us identify the best value odds. A data-led approach backed by key stats and the latest team news keeps our analysis sharp.

Key Michigan State vs UConn stats:

• The 134.5 line has been covered in the last 7 MSU games.
• The 134.5 line has been covered in 9 of the last 10 MSU games.
• The 134.5 line has been covered in 17 of the last 20 MSU games.
• The 134.5 line has been covered in 12 of the last 20 UConn games.

Over 134.5 Probability

If you go by the best sportsbooks, our pick has a 52.4% chance of landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our cappers think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

If you’re wanting bigger odds when wagering on the Totals, then the good news is that you can be in control of the line. Get more juice by betting Over a certain number.

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Our Game Prediction

Over 134.5 Points @ -110 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 27, 01:03). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Tarris Reed Jr. Over 14.5 Points +109

Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn) can be wagered to total Over 14.5 points at +109. We think that the line looks really appealing for this Player Points bet as we’re expecting him to cover this total.

Latest Tarris Reed Jr. Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 14.5

+115

Under 14.5

-149

Rebounds

Over 9.5

+115

Under 9.5

-149

---

Carson Cooper Over 9.5 Points -127

Carson Cooper (Michigan State) can be wagered to total Over 9.5 points at -127. We are going to choose a Player Points prop bet which will hopefully see him cover the line.

Latest Carson Cooper Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 9.5

-130

Under 9.5

-100

Rebounds

Over 6.5

+103

Under 6.5

-133

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Michigan State 66 - 72 UConn

There are lots of different betting angles including the chance to back the Huskies on the correct score lines. For example, a 72-66 victory in their favor is available at massive odds.

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Michigan State vs UConn Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

UConn are on offer at -137 on the Moneyline if you want to back this program, with Michigan State available at +114. If you want to know the probability of the road team winning this Sweet 16 game, it’s 47% according to the most popular sportsbooks.

The current spread is 1.5 and total points is 136.5. Having a wager on the Totals is one of the most popular basketball bets. There’s an opportunity to bet Over 136.5 at -105.

College hoops fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of team props and game lines which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

MSU

+114

UConn

-137

Point Spread

MSU +1.5

-106

UConn -1.5

-114

Total Points

Under 136.5

-115

Over 136.5

-105

The favorite to hit the most buckets is Jeremy Fears Jr.. Odds of -109 can be found for him scoring Over 16.5 points and there is -119 for him to go Under.

Jeremy Fears Jr. (MSU)

Over 16.5

-109

Under 16.5

-119

Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn)

Over 14.5

+115

Under 14.5

-149

Alex Karaban (UConn)

Over 13.5

-110

Under 13.5

-118

Braylon Mullins (UConn)

Over 12.5

-130

Under 12.5

-100

Coen Carr (MSU)

Over 10.5

-114

Under 10.5

-114

Jaxon Kohler (MSU)

Over 9.5

-147

Under 9.5

+113

Carson Cooper (MSU)

Over 9.5

-130

Under 9.5

-100

Solo Ball (UConn)

Over 9.5

-116

Under 9.5

-111

Silas Demary Jr. (UConn)

Over 9.5

+109

Under 9.5

-141

Kur Teng (MSU)

Over 6.5

+128

Under 6.5

-167

Silas Demary Jr. (UConn)

Over 5.5

-128

Under 5.5

-101

Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn)

Over 9.5

+115

Under 9.5

-149

Jaxon Kohler (MSU)

Over 7.5

-114

Under 7.5

-114

Carson Cooper (MSU)

Over 6.5

+103

Under 6.5

-133

Coen Carr (MSU)

Over 5.5

-123

Under 5.5

-105

Alex Karaban (UConn)

Over 4.5

-141

Under 4.5

+109

An increasing number of bettors are now enjoying micro betting on college basketball and it’s something which is available on an in-game basis. Wait for the action to start and then wager on something specific to happen.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Michigan State Stats

UConn Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games

Point Spread

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games

Point Spread

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 154.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 134.5: Covered in 9 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 79.60 pts and allowed 75.00 pts in the last 10 games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 137.70 pts in the previous 10 games
• Over 134.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 72.90 pts and allowed 64.80 pts in the last 10 games

NCAAB Regular Season Table Select Season 2026/20272025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Big East	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Butler	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
UConn	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Creighton	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
DePaul	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Georgetown	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Marquette	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Providence	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Seton Hall	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
St. John's	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Villanova	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Xavier	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

Big Ten	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Illinois	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Oregon	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Washington	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
UCLA	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
USC	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Rutgers	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Purdue	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Penn State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Ohio State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Indiana	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Northwestern	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Nebraska	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Minnesota	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Michigan	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Michigan State	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Maryland	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Iowa	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-
Wisconsin	0-0	0	0	0	0-0	0-0	-

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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