Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Picks & Odds | 28 Sep 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Lynx vs Mercury

The Minnesota Lynx square off against the Phoenix Mercury in this WNBA matchup at PHX Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 20:00 on Sunday, September 28. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

Lynx Look Value for This Matchup

Our betting prediction is that the Lynx will be able to cover the spread against the Mercury, with +4.5 looking favorable for our wager. Take the -110 that is currently available.

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Lynx H2H Record Includes 7 Wins in 10

When Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx met on Friday night, Mercury managed a 84-76 victory. The past 10 games between the teams have seen the Lynx win seven times.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L

View Full Standings

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction & Picks

Step into Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury with confidence, armed with our expert match prediction, likely scoreline, key player prop plays and a custom-built bet builder for maximum value.

Game Prediction

We’re confident that Lynx can produce a strong performance in this WNBA contest. Our pick is that the underdogs will cover the spread of +4.5 and you can currently get -110.

The WNBA handicappers at Sportsgambler.com stay on top of injuries and team form that could impact the outcome. We also leave no stone unturned when analyzing the latest stats to support every prediction.

Key Lynx vs Mercury stats:

• The +4.5 line has been covered by Lynx in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The +4.5 line has been covered by Lynx in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -4.5 line hasn’t been covered by Mercury in 7 of their last 10 games against Lynx.

Lynx +4.5 Probability

According to the top sportsbooks, there’s a 52.4% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and estimate the probability to be closer to 60%. This WNBA bet can therefore be backed with confidence.

There’s the option to move the line for your spread pick and this enables bettors to get bigger odds. If you’re prepared for additional risk, you can get more bang for your buck.

Before placing your bets, explore the latest betting offers. Our comprehensive guide features a wide range of welcome bonuses to choose from.

Best Bet

Lynx +4.5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Courtney Williams Over 17.5 Points +105

Courtney Williams (Lynx) can be backed to score Over 17.5 points at +105. We think this is the pick of the prop bets that are on offer when it comes to backing her on Player Points.

Latest Courtney Williams Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 17.5

+105

Under 17.5

-135

Assists

Over 5.5

-141

Under 5.5

+110

Rebounds

Over 5.5

-105

Under 5.5

-125

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Kayla McBride Over 3.5 Rebounds +124

Kayla McBride (Lynx) can be wagered to have Over 3.5 rebounds at +124. We think that the value can be found by betting on Player Rebounds and we’re expecting her to go over the line.

Latest Kayla McBride Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 16.5

-120

Under 16.5

-110

Assists

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-130

Rebounds

Over 3.5

+124

Under 3.5

-161

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Correct Score Prediction

Lynx 81 - 79 Mercury

We’ll throw a dart when it comes to the Lynx landing a 81-79 win. This correct score prediction is available at tasty odds and could be an entertaining wager to place.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Latest Moneyline Odds Suggest Mercury Victory

Phoenix Mercury are regarded as having a 68% chance of winning this WNBA game according to the latest betting odds. The sportsbooks have priced them up at -208. Minnesota Lynx are regarded as a long shot to win and you can currently back them at +164.

4.5 is the spread and 155.5 is the total points line. A Total bet relates to the number of points that will be scored overall. If you want to wager Over 155.5, there are odds of -110.

The good news is that you can access a huge selection of game lines and team props for most women's hoops contests. The best betting apps have a massive range of pre-game and in-game wagering options.

Moneyline

Lynx

+164

Mercury

-208

Point Spread

Lynx +4.5

-108

Mercury -4.5

-112

Total Points

Under 155.5

-110

Over 155.5

-110

Courtney Williams Favorite to Score the Most Baskets

Courtney Williams is favorite when it comes to hitting the most buckets. You can get +105 that she goes Over 17.5 points and -135 when it comes to Under.

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 17.5

+105

Under 17.5

-135

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 16.5

-120

Under 16.5

-110

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-110

Under 16.5

-120

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-120

Under 15.5

-110

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 15.5

-120

Under 15.5

-110

Natisha Hiedeman (Lynx)

Over 9.5

-120

Under 9.5

-110

Alanna Smith (Lynx)

Over 9.5

-115

Under 9.5

-115

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-135

Under 8.5

+105

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 5.5

-141

Under 5.5

+110

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-130

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 2.5

+160

Under 2.5

-208

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 1.5

-135

Under 1.5

+105

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-130

Under 8.5

-100

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 6.5

+105

Under 6.5

-135

Courtney Williams (Lynx)

Over 5.5

-105

Under 5.5

-125

Kayla McBride (Lynx)

Over 3.5

+124

Under 3.5

-161

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-145

Under 2.5

+114

Micro Betting

It’s good to consider all wagering options when it comes to basketball and micro betting can be an exciting way to get involved in the action. When everything goes in-game, consider whether the next shot will be a Two or a Three-pointer.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Minnesota Lynx Stats

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Moneyline

• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 158.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 160.90 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 155.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 155.5 on the Road: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 82.20 pts and allowed 76.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 80.80 pts and allowed 80.10 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 158.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 155.90 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 155.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 155.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 79.40 pts and allowed 79.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 79.30 pts and allowed 76.60 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 20252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	34	10	3787	3373	414	20-2	14-8	1W
2  Aces	30	14	3680	3552	128	17-5	13-9	16W
3  Dream	30	14	3712	3378	334	16-6	14-8	6W
4  Mercury	27	17	3643	3525	118	15-7	12-10	3L
5  Liberty	27	17	3713	3534	179	17-5	10-12	3W
6  Fever	24	20	3734	3586	148	13-9	11-11	3W
7  Storm	23	21	3614	3524	90	10-12	13-9	1W
8  Valkyries	23	21	3420	3359	61	14-8	9-13	3L
9  Sparks	21	23	3769	3882	-113	9-13	12-10	1L
10  Mystics	16	28	3394	3589	-195	10-12	6-16	10L
11  Sun	11	33	3337	3782	-445	7-15	4-18	2L
12  Sky	10	34	3335	3777	-442	6-16	4-18	4L
13  Wings	10	34	3594	3871	-277	6-16	4-18	1W