Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks & Odds | 05 Oct 2025
WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces
The Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Las Vegas Aces in this WNBA matchup at Michelob Ultra Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 16:00 on Sunday, October 5. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.
There is merit in simply backing the Aces on the Moneyline considering our prediction is that the home team will prove too strong for the Mercury. Especially as -149 are available about this happening.
8 of Last 10 Clashes Have Been Aces Wins
Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury met two nights ago, with Aces coming away with a 89-86 win. The Aces have triumphed in their previous four meetings against the Mercury. On the head-to-head front, it has been 8 wins out of 10.
| WNBA | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7
Aces
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
11
Mercury
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks
Take in the full Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces betting outlook — from our expert match prediction and correct score pick to player prop insights and a bet builder tailored for value.
Game Prediction
Aces should be able to come out on top in this WNBA contest. Our best pick is to back the home team on the Moneyline considering that a juicy -149 can be landed right now.
Tracking injury updates is a big part of our analysis and team news plays a major role in shaping our basketball predictions. We combine this with recent form and the most important WNBA stats to get a complete picture.
Key Mercury vs Aces stats:
Aces Moneyline Probability
The odds at the top basketball sportsbooks suggest our pick has a 59.9% chance of winning. However, our analysts think that the probability sits between 65-70% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
If you’re wanting bigger odds about the Aces, then there are a number of alternatives including against the Spread, Double Result and the Result & Both Teams to Score.
Make the most of your next wager by unlocking the best betting offers along with the latest sign-up bonuses and promotions.
Player Prop Picks
Chelsea Gray (Aces) is available at -159 to have Under 3.5 rebounds. We really like this player prop so we’re going to bet on her to fall short when it comes to rebounds.
Latest Chelsea Gray Player Prop Odds
A'ja Wilson (Aces) can be backed to total Over 3.5 assists at +110. We think it makes sense to stick with her when it comes to Overs and bettors can be confident with this Player Assists pick.
Latest A'ja Wilson Player Prop Odds
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Same Game Parlay Picks
Take a same game parlay that incorporates Aces on the moneyline combined with Over 164.5. Add in Chelsea Gray (Aces) to record Under 3.5 rebounds.
The same game parlay option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same basketball game. You need all your predictions to be correct although bettors love to place a tailored wager on the contest which interests them most.
Correct Score Prediction
83
-
85
Aces
There are huge odds available when it comes to the Aces landing a 85-83 win. A close game is anticipated between two evenly-matched teams.
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
With a 60% chance of securing victory, Las Vegas Aces are favorites for this WNBA game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -149. At +122, Phoenix Mercury are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.
There is a spread of 2.5 and total points has a line of 163.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. The Over 163.5 selection is available to back at -112.
You can find hundreds of game lines and team props for every women's basketball contest, with the top betting sites creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.
A'ja Wilson is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can get -110 that she scores Over 25.5 points or -118 that she goes Under.
Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.
- WNBA: 04/10 2025 Mercury 86 Aces 89
- WNBA: 22/08 2025 Mercury 61 Aces 83
- WNBA: 16/08 2025 Aces 86 Mercury 83
- WNBA: 30/06 2025 Aces 84 Mercury 81
- WNBA: 16/06 2025 Mercury 76 Aces 70
- WNBA: 01/09 2024 Aces 97 Mercury 79
- WNBA: 14/06 2024 Aces 103 Mercury 99
- WNBA: 22/05 2024 Mercury 98 Aces 88
- WNBA: 15/05 2024 Mercury 80 Aces 89
- WNBA: 10/09 2023 Mercury 85 Aces 100
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Phoenix Mercury Stats
Las Vegas Aces Stats
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
- 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
- +2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
- +2.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games on the road
- -2.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
- -2.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 home games
- Game Totals: An average of 161.20 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals on the Road: An average of 164.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
- Over 164.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
- Over 164.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.70 pts and allowed 80.50 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 81.60 pts and allowed 82.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road
- Game Totals: An average of 170.20 pts in the previous 10 games
- Game Totals at Home: An average of 165.30 pts in the previous 10 home games
- Over 164.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
- Over 164.5 at Home: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 home games
- Team Totals: Have scored an average of 88.80 pts and allowed 81.40 pts in the last 10 games
- Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 88.70 pts and allowed 76.60 pts in the last 10 home games
WNBA Table Select Season
| Team | W | L | PF | PA | N. Pts | Home | Away | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1
Dream
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
2
Sky
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
3
Sun
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
4
Wings
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
5
Valkyries
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
6
Fever
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
|
7
Aces
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
8
Sparks
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
9
Lynx
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
10
Liberty
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
|
11
Mercury
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
12
Storm
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
13
Mystics
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
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