Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks & Odds | 05 Oct 2025

WNBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

The Phoenix Mercury lock horns with the Las Vegas Aces in this WNBA matchup at Michelob Ultra Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 15:00 on Sunday, October 5. Our betting preview features expert predictions, betting tips, the latest odds and H2H stats.

There is merit in simply backing the Aces on the Moneyline considering our prediction is that the home team will prove too strong for the Mercury. Especially as -149 are available about this happening.

8 of Last 10 Clashes Have Been Aces Wins

Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury met two nights ago, with Aces coming away with a 89-86 win. The Aces have triumphed in their previous four meetings against the Mercury. On the head-to-head front, it has been 8 wins out of 10.

WNBA	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
2  Aces	11	4	1349	1298	51	3-2	8-2	1W
12  Mercury	5	12	1402	1461	-59	2-6	3-6	1W

View Full Standings

Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction & Picks

Take in the full Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces betting outlook — from our expert match prediction and correct score pick to player prop insights and a bet builder tailored for value.

Game Prediction

Aces should be able to come out on top in this WNBA contest. Our best pick is to back the home team on the Moneyline considering that a juicy -149 can be landed right now.

Tracking injury updates is a big part of our analysis and team news plays a major role in shaping our basketball predictions. We combine this with recent form and the most important WNBA stats to get a complete picture.

Key Mercury vs Aces stats:

• Aces have won 9 of their last 10 games at home.
• Aces have won 17 of their last 20 games.
• Aces have won 3 consecutive games at home.
• Mercury have lost 3 of their last 5 games on the road.
• Aces have won the last 4 games between these teams.

Aces Moneyline Probability

The odds at the top basketball sportsbooks suggest our pick has a 59.9% chance of winning. However, our analysts think that the probability sits between 65-70% taking all factors into consideration. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

If you’re wanting bigger odds about the Aces, then there are a number of alternatives including against the Spread, Double Result and the Result & Both Teams to Score.

Make the most of your next wager by unlocking the best betting offers along with the latest sign-up bonuses and promotions.

Our Game Prediction

Aces Moneyline @ -149 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 4, 19:06). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Chelsea Gray Under 3.5 Rebounds -159

Chelsea Gray (Aces) is available at -159 to have Under 3.5 rebounds. We really like this player prop so we’re going to bet on her to fall short when it comes to rebounds.

Latest Chelsea Gray Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 10.5

-105

Under 10.5

-123

Assists

Over 6.5

-115

Under 6.5

-112

Rebounds

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-130

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A'ja Wilson Over 3.5 Assists +110

A'ja Wilson (Aces) can be backed to total Over 3.5 assists at +110. We think it makes sense to stick with her when it comes to Overs and bettors can be confident with this Player Assists pick.

Latest A'ja Wilson Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 25.5

-110

Under 25.5

-118

Assists

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-149

Rebounds

Over 11.5

+104

Under 11.5

-135

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Mercury 83 - 85 Aces

There are huge odds available when it comes to the Aces landing a 85-83 win. A close game is anticipated between two evenly-matched teams.

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Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With a 60% chance of securing victory, Las Vegas Aces are favorites for this WNBA game and the sportsbooks have them at betting odds of -149. At +122, Phoenix Mercury are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

There is a spread of 2.5 and total points has a line of 163.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. The Over 163.5 selection is available to back at -112.

You can find hundreds of game lines and team props for every women's basketball contest, with the top betting sites creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and in-game selections before placing your bets.

Moneyline

Mercury

+122

Aces

-149

Point Spread

Mercury +2.5

-108

Aces -2.5

-112

Total Points

Under 163.5

-108

Over 163.5

-112

A'ja Wilson is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can get -110 that she scores Over 25.5 points or -118 that she goes Under.

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 25.5

-110

Under 25.5

-118

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 17.5

-127

Under 17.5

-102

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 16.5

-110

Under 16.5

-118

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 16.5

-100

Under 16.5

-130

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 14.5

-135

Under 14.5

+104

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 10.5

-105

Under 10.5

-123

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 9.5

-133

Under 9.5

+103

Sami Whitcomb (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+199

Under 9.5

-270

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 8.5

-123

Under 8.5

-104

Dana Evans (Aces)

Over 7.5

-120

Under 7.5

-108

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 6.5

-112

Under 6.5

-115

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

+128

Under 9.5

-167

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 6.5

-115

Under 6.5

-112

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 5.5

+113

Under 5.5

-147

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 3.5

+115

Under 3.5

-149

Dana Evans (Aces)

Over 3.5

+182

Under 3.5

-244

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 2.5

-135

Under 2.5

+105

A'ja Wilson (Aces)

Over 11.5

+104

Under 11.5

-135

Alyssa Thomas (Mercury)

Over 9.5

-103

Under 9.5

-125

DeWanna Bonner (Mercury)

Over 6.5

+113

Under 6.5

-147

Satou Sabally (Mercury)

Over 5.5

-167

Under 5.5

+128

NaLyssa Smith (Aces)

Over 5.5

+110

Under 5.5

-143

Jackie Young (Aces)

Over 4.5

-111

Under 4.5

-116

Kahleah Copper (Mercury)

Over 3.5

+126

Under 3.5

-164

Chelsea Gray (Aces)

Over 3.5

-100

Under 3.5

-130

Jewell Loyd (Aces)

Over 3.5

+158

Under 3.5

-208

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Phoenix Mercury Stats

Las Vegas Aces Stats

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 9 wins and 1 defeat in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• +8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• +8.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• -8.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• -8.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 165.30 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 162.10 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 167.5: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 on the Road: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 83.10 pts and allowed 82.20 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.60 pts and allowed 82.50 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 170.60 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 167.80 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 167.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 167.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 87.80 pts and allowed 82.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 89.50 pts and allowed 78.30 pts in the last 10 home games

WNBA Table Select Season 202620252024202320222021202020192018

Team	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
1  Lynx	13	3	1477	1270	207	6-2	7-1	3W
2  Aces	11	4	1349	1298	51	3-2	8-2	1W
3  Dream	11	4	1353	1246	107	5-2	6-2	3W
4  Liberty	11	5	1417	1321	96	6-4	5-1	1L
5  Valkyries	10	6	1351	1257	94	7-3	3-3	1L
6  Wings	10	6	1407	1333	74	6-2	4-4	1W
7  Fever	9	7	1479	1435	44	6-3	3-4	2L
8  Mystics	7	7	1151	1204	-53	2-3	5-4	2W
9  Tempo	8	8	1433	1466	-33	4-3	4-5	1W
10  Fire	8	9	1398	1497	-99	6-5	2-4	1W
11  Sparks	7	8	1316	1364	-48	2-6	5-2	2L
12  Mercury	5	12	1402	1461	-59	2-6	3-6	1W
13  Sky	4	11	1255	1330	-75	1-6	3-5	5L
14  Storm	3	14	1308	1434	-126	2-6	1-8	10L
15  Sun	2	15	1346	1526	-180	1-7	1-8	7L

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