Louisville vs SMU Prediction, Picks & Odds | 17 Feb 2026

College Basketball Betting Preview: Louisville vs SMU

The Louisville Cardinals go up against the SMU Mustangs, with tip-off scheduled for 19:00 on Tuesday, February 17.

There’s every chance that the total won’t be as high as 166.5, so we’re prepared to take the -105 that Louisville and SMU go under the line.

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Louisville Cardinals got the win in their previous game. A 82-71 triumph occurred on the road when playing Baylor Bears.

SMU Mustangs suffered a defeat in their last game. A 79-78 scoreline occurred on the road against Syracuse Orange.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Louisville beat SMU in their last head-to-head matchup. It was a 88-74 scoreline.

NCAAB	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Louisville	19-6	2172	1773	399	13-2	6-4	5W
SMU	17-8	2155	1939	216	14-2	3-6	1L

View Full Standings

Louisville vs SMU Prediction & Picks

This expert Louisville vs SMU betting breakdown features our match prediction, a correct score pick and a carefully constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Game Prediction

The total line looks too big at 166.5 and we can take advantage. Go under this number at -105 and hope that there aren’t too many fireworks in this college game.

We put solid research behind every basketball pick, starting with recent form and a clear read on injuries. From there, key college hoops stats and advanced metrics help complete the picture and support smarter betting decisions.

Key Louisville vs SMU stats:

• The 166.5 line hasn’t been covered in 17 of the last 20 Louisville games on the road.
• The 166.5 line hasn’t been covered in 8 of the last 10 Louisville games.
• The 166.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 SMU games.
• The 166.5 line hasn’t been covered in 3 of the last 5 SMU games.

Under 166.5 Probability

The top sportsbooks make it a 51.3% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. In the opinion of our cappers, there’s actually a probability of success between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

Those bettors wanting more bang for their buck can move the Total line as they see fit. You can bet Under a certain points level in order to get the bigger odds.

Give yourself a head start. Explore the latest free bet promotions and bonus offers in our comprehensive guide.

Our Game Prediction

Under 166.5 Points @ -105 Bet Now

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Correct Score Prediction

Louisville 85 - 78 SMU

A 85-78 win for Louisville is clearly a risky bet although this could be an exciting correct score option where there’s the chance to enjoy a huge potential return.

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Louisville vs SMU Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

For this college game, the sportsbooks’ Moneyline betting odds mean Louisville are -192 favorites to win and that means a 66% chance of landing a victory. For those wanting to oppose the market leader, you can get +158 about SMU.

The spread currently stands at 3.5 and the total points line is 166.5. A bet on the Totals allows fans to use the latest basketball data to good effect. There’s the chance to back Under 166.5 at -105.

College hoops fans are spoilt for choice thanks to the wide range of team props and game lines which are available for every contest on the coupon. Head to the top basketball sportsbooks and find the best value picks.

Moneyline

Louisville

-192

SMU

+158

Point Spread

Louisville -3.5

-110

SMU +3.5

-110

Total Points

Under 166.5

-105

Over 166.5

-115

If you’re looking for an alternative to the main game lines, check out the player props instead. It’s great to wager on Total Points, Three-Pointers, Assists, Steals, Blocks and Rebounds as potential options.

Micro betting is something that’s really popular with bettors, with college basketball fans essentially being able to wager in-game when it comes to score, player and team props. Check out the two-way lines where you can bet whether the next shot will be a Two-pointer or a Three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Louisville Stats

SMU Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• -4.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +4.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games
• +4.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 155.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 154.80 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 166.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 166.5 on the Road: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 83.40 pts and allowed 72.10 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 79.10 pts and allowed 75.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 159.20 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 166.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 166.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
• Over 166.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 80.40 pts and allowed 78.80 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 88.80 pts and allowed 77.30 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAB Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Atlantic Coast	Overall	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Duke	24-2	2157	1642	515	15-0	9-2	3W
Virginia	22-3	2035	1685	350	13-1	9-2	6W
Miami	20-5	2089	1752	337	13-3	7-2	3W
North Carolina	20-5	2045	1761	284	16-0	4-5	1W
Clemson	20-6	1945	1682	263	13-2	7-4	2L
Louisville	19-6	2172	1773	399	13-2	6-4	5W
NC State	18-8	2209	1934	275	11-5	7-3	2L
California	18-8	2053	1897	156	15-3	3-5	1W
SMU	17-8	2155	1939	216	14-2	3-6	1L
Virginia Tech	17-9	2058	1943	115	13-3	4-6	1L
Stanford	16-10	1961	1886	75	10-6	6-4	1L
Syracuse	15-12	2053	1977	76	12-4	3-8	1L
Wake Forest	13-12	1992	1925	67	9-6	4-6	2W
Florida State	12-13	2009	1960	49	9-7	3-6	1W
Notre Dame	12-14	1941	1909	32	10-5	2-9	1W
Georgia Tech	11-15	1937	1984	-47	10-7	1-8	7L
Boston College	9-16	1686	1733	-47	8-10	1-6	6L
Pittsburgh	9-17	1818	1866	-48	7-9	2-8	5L

• Overall = Overall Wins-Losses
• PF = Total Points For
• PA = Total Points Against
• N. Pts = Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Away = Away Record
• Strk = Current Streak

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