Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks & Odds | NBA Friday

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 32-8 Away) play No. 4 Denver Nuggets (50-32, 26-15 at Home) in game 3 of this NBA Playoffs Western Conference Semifinal matchup at Ball Arena, with the series being tied 1-1.

Our pick is that the Thunder will gain the upper hand against the Nuggets. This leads us to backing them against the spread at -110, with the -5 line offering lots of appeal.

Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets clashed two nights ago and it was the Thunder who claimed a 149-106 win at Paycom Center.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 points for the Thunder, Jalen Williams bagged 17, while Chet Holmgren registered 15 points and 11 rebounds. For the Nuggets, Russell Westbrook recorded 19 points, Nikola Jokic 17 and Jamal Murray 14.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The previous 10 games featuring these teams have resulted in six Thunder victories.

NBA Reg. Season	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	30	5	0.857	122.4	107.1	15.3	17-2	13-3	6-2	24-5	6-4	4W
Nuggets	23	12	0.657	124.3	118.1	6.2	10-5	13-7	4-1	16-7	4-6	2L

View Full Standings

The Thunder have 9 wins and 1 loss in the past 10 games. They are averaging 126.9 points, 45.9 rebounds, 26.9 assists, 10.7 steals and 6.1 blocks while shooting 48.0% from the field and 80.4% from the free-throw line. The opposition have averaged 107.2 points and 46.5 rebounds per matchup.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 22.0 points and 4.6 assists, while Isaiah Hartenstein averages 6.7 rebounds and Isaiah Joe 2.6 (44.1%) 3-pointers made.

The Nuggets have won 6 and lost 4 of their previous 10 contests. Averaging 110.7 points, 45.1 rebounds, 23.6 assists, 7.1 steals and 4.4 blocks per game while shooting 47.1% from the field and 75.6% from the free-throw line. Their opponents have averaged 113.7 points and 40.8 rebounds.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.0 assists, while Jamal Murray has an average of 2.5 (39.7%) 3-pointers made.

Confirmed Starting Lineups

Oklahoma City Thunder lineup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein.

Denver Nuggets lineup: Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Picks

Bank on Thunder to cover the -5 line on the spread. This is a great number and that’s why we’re playing the favorites at -110 for this NBA showdown.

The team news that filters through can have a knock-on effect as far as the NBA betting lines and odds are concerned. We use this information along with the form guide, while some key stats are also taken into consideration.

Key Thunder vs Nuggets stats:

• The -5 line has been covered by Thunder in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The -5 line has been covered by Thunder in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

Thunder -5 Probability

When you look at the latest odds, our pick has a 52.4% chance of landing a return. However, our cappers think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

If you’re hunting for larger odds and feel confident your selection is going to perform well, then consider moving the line and land a bigger potential return.

Our Game Prediction

Thunder -5 @ -110 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 Points -120

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) has recorded an average of 22 points in the past 5 home games. We are therefore keen to back the -120 that he fails to cover this total when it comes to Player Points.

Latest Nikola Jokic Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 28.5

-109

Under 28.5

-122

Assists

Over 9.5

+108

Under 9.5

-143

Rebounds

Over 13.5

-118

Under 13.5

-114

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points -109

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) has had Over 32.5 points in 3 straight games. We will therefore place a bet that he is able to cover the line for this Player Points wager which is available at odds of -109.

Latest Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Prop Odds

Points

Over 32.5

-109

Under 32.5

-120

Assists

Over 7.5

+112

Under 7.5

-147

Rebounds

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

+110

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Correct Score Prediction

Thunder 118 - 108 Nuggets

If you want to achieve a big return from your stake, then it’s worth checking out the correct score lines. The Thunder to claim a 118-108 victory is available at huge odds.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Oklahoma City Thunder as -238 favorites for this NBA game, implying that they are 70% likely to win. At +198, Denver Nuggets are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

The spread is 5.5 and the total points line is currently 232. There are many ways to wager on basketball including the Totals. If you’re going for Under 232, this outcome can be backed at -112.

If you’re planning to place a basketball bet, visit the betting sites and check out the wide range of game lines and team props. Find the lines which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Thunder

-238

Nuggets

+198

Point Spread

Thunder -5.5

-114

Nuggets +5.5

-106

Total Points

Under 232

-112

Over 232

-108

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to land the most baskets. You can get -109 that he scores Over 32.5 points or -120 that he goes Under.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 32.5

-109

Under 32.5

-120

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 28.5

-109

Under 28.5

-122

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 21.5

-127

Under 21.5

-106

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 20.5

-122

Under 20.5

-109

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 16.5

-120

Under 16.5

-112

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 15.5

-122

Under 15.5

-109

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-130

Under 13.5

-103

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 12.5

-108

Under 12.5

-122

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 11.5

-109

Under 11.5

-120

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 10.5

-122

Under 10.5

-109

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 9.5

-125

Under 9.5

-106

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 7.5

-122

Under 7.5

-108

Cason Wallace (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

+108

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 9.5

+108

Under 9.5

-143

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 7.5

+112

Under 7.5

-147

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-125

Under 5.5

-108

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-141

Under 4.5

+106

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

-139

Under 3.5

+106

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 3.5

+136

Under 3.5

-179

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+118

Under 3.5

-159

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 2.5

-103

Under 2.5

-132

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 2.5

-152

Under 2.5

+114

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

+110

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Over 13.5

-118

Under 13.5

-114

Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-109

Under 8.5

-122

Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)

Over 8.5

-127

Under 8.5

-105

Aaron Gordon (Nuggets)

Over 6.5

+106

Under 6.5

-141

Jalen Williams (Thunder)

Over 5.5

+108

Under 5.5

-143

Christian Braun (Nuggets)

Over 5.5

-120

Under 5.5

-110

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

+110

Jamal Murray (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

-100

Under 4.5

-132

Russell Westbrook (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

-120

Under 4.5

-112

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)

Over 4.5

-147

Under 4.5

+112

Luguentz Dort (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+112

Under 3.5

-149

Alex Caruso (Thunder)

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-161

Instead of focusing on the overall outcome, some basketball bettors prefer to look at the micro betting lines. As the name suggests, it means placing short-term in-game wagers and this might include Next Field Goal, with the options being for a two-pointer or a three-pointer.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Oklahoma City Thunder Stats

Denver Nuggets Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• -5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 6 of the last 10 games
• +5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 220.50 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 222.40 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 216.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 216.5 on the Road: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 117.10 pts and allowed 103.40 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 114.70 pts and allowed 107.70 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 219.10 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 226.10 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 216.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
• Over 216.5 at Home: Covered in 8 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 107.20 pts and allowed 111.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 114.70 pts and allowed 111.40 pts in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 29.70 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.30 (31%)
• Free Throws Made: 20.80 (79.69%)
• Rebounds: Total 47.6, Offensive 13.10, Defensive 34.50
• Assists: 24.50
• Blocks: 6.40
• Steals: 9.80
• Turnovers : 10.90
• Personal Fouls: 21.40

Last 10 Games on the Road

• 2-Pointers Made: 28.80 (54%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.80 (34%)
• Free Throws Made: 18.70 (78.57%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.5, Offensive 11.00, Defensive 34.50
• Assists: 25.30
• Blocks: 4.90
• Steals: 9.30
• Turnovers : 11.30
• Personal Fouls: 21.00

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 26.80 (51%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 12.10 (35%)
• Free Throws Made: 17.30 (76.21%)
• Rebounds: Total 45.6, Offensive 11.90, Defensive 33.70
• Assists: 22.30
• Blocks: 4.90
• Steals: 7.30
• Turnovers : 14.10
• Personal Fouls: 21.20

Last 10 Home Games

• 2-Pointers Made: 30.00 (55%)
• 3-Pointers Made: 11.60 (34%)
• Free Throws Made: 19.90 (73.43%)
• Rebounds: Total 47.9, Offensive 10.50, Defensive 37.40
• Assists: 26.40
• Blocks: 4.30
• Steals: 8.00
• Turnovers : 13.20
• Personal Fouls: 18.80

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets Confirmed Lineup

0 Christian Braun

1 Michael Porter Jr.

15 Nikola Jokic

27 Jamal Murray

32 Aaron Gordon

Oklahoma City Thunder Confirmed Lineup

2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

5 Luguentz Dort

7 Chet Holmgren

8 Jalen Williams

55 Isaiah Hartenstein

NBA Regular Season Table Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Division Conference League

East Atlantic	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Knicks	23	12	0.657	120.5	115	5.5	15-4	8-8	5-3	18-10	5-5	3L
Celtics	22	12	0.647	117.9	110.7	7.2	10-5	12-7	5-4	15-8	7-3	3W
Raptors	21	15	0.583	114.4	112.6	1.8	11-8	10-7	3-6	18-10	6-4	1W
76ers	19	14	0.576	117	116.1	0.9	9-8	10-6	7-3	14-12	6-4	3W
Nets	11	22	0.333	109.5	114.3	-4.8	5-13	6-9	3-7	8-15	5-5	1W

East Central	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	26	9	0.743	118.8	112.7	6.1	13-3	13-6	6-3	18-6	6-4	1W
Cavaliers	20	17	0.541	119.2	116.8	2.4	13-9	7-8	6-3	13-13	5-5	1L
Bulls	17	18	0.486	118.3	121.8	-3.5	10-9	7-9	3-6	13-12	7-3	1L
Bucks	15	20	0.429	113.3	116	-2.7	9-9	6-11	5-4	13-14	5-5	1W
Pacers	6	30	0.167	110.6	119.7	-9.1	5-14	1-16	2-6	4-18	0-10	12L

East Southeast	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Magic	20	16	0.556	117.1	115.4	1.7	12-6	8-10	5-3	14-12	5-5	1W
Heat	19	16	0.543	120.7	117.6	3.1	12-6	7-10	3-3	12-10	5-5	1L
Hawks	17	20	0.459	119	119.9	-0.9	6-11	11-9	4-3	10-14	2-8	1L
Hornets	12	23	0.343	115.8	118.5	-2.7	7-10	5-13	4-4	11-16	5-5	1W
Wizards	9	24	0.273	113.3	123.9	-10.6	5-11	4-13	1-4	6-17	6-4	2W

West Northwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	30	5	0.857	122.4	107.1	15.3	17-2	13-3	6-2	24-5	6-4	4W
Nuggets	23	12	0.657	124.3	118.1	6.2	10-5	13-7	4-1	16-7	4-6	2L
Timberwolves	22	13	0.629	118.9	114.6	4.3	12-6	10-7	4-4	13-10	6-4	1W
Trail Blazers	16	20	0.444	116.3	119.6	-3.3	7-9	9-11	3-4	13-13	6-4	2W
Jazz	12	22	0.353	119.7	126.7	-7	8-11	4-11	0-6	7-16	3-7	3L

West Pacific	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Lakers	21	11	0.656	117.2	117.4	-0.2	9-6	12-5	4-4	16-8	5-5	1W
Suns	20	14	0.588	115.5	113.4	2.1	11-5	9-9	8-4	18-12	6-4	1W
Warriors	19	17	0.528	115.2	113.9	1.3	11-5	8-12	4-2	13-11	6-4	1W
Clippers	12	22	0.353	112.4	114.6	-2.2	8-9	4-13	3-4	9-14	6-4	1L
Kings	8	27	0.229	110.6	122.5	-11.9	5-11	3-16	1-6	6-22	2-8	4L

West Southwest	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Spurs	25	10	0.714	119.7	114.2	5.5	12-5	13-5	7-0	14-8	7-3	1L
Rockets	21	11	0.656	120	111.4	8.6	10-2	11-9	2-4	11-10	5-5	1L
Grizzlies	15	19	0.441	116	116.9	-0.9	7-9	8-10	4-3	13-10	4-6	3L
Mavericks	13	23	0.361	113.5	117.5	-4	10-10	3-13	3-6	7-16	3-7	1W
Pelicans	8	28	0.222	115.4	123.1	-7.7	6-16	2-12	3-6	4-22	4-6	6L

Eastern Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Pistons	26	9	0.743	118.8	112.7	6.1	13-3	13-6	6-3	18-6	6-4	1W
Knicks	23	12	0.657	120.5	115	5.5	15-4	8-8	5-3	18-10	5-5	3L
Celtics	22	12	0.647	117.9	110.7	7.2	10-5	12-7	5-4	15-8	7-3	3W
Raptors	21	15	0.583	114.4	112.6	1.8	11-8	10-7	3-6	18-10	6-4	1W
76ers	19	14	0.576	117	116.1	0.9	9-8	10-6	7-3	14-12	6-4	3W
Magic	20	16	0.556	117.1	115.4	1.7	12-6	8-10	5-3	14-12	5-5	1W
Cavaliers	20	17	0.541	119.2	116.8	2.4	13-9	7-8	6-3	13-13	5-5	1L
Heat	19	16	0.543	120.7	117.6	3.1	12-6	7-10	3-3	12-10	5-5	1L
Bulls	17	18	0.486	118.3	121.8	-3.5	10-9	7-9	3-6	13-12	7-3	1L
Hawks	17	20	0.459	119	119.9	-0.9	6-11	11-9	4-3	10-14	2-8	1L
Bucks	15	20	0.429	113.3	116	-2.7	9-9	6-11	5-4	13-14	5-5	1W
Hornets	12	23	0.343	115.8	118.5	-2.7	7-10	5-13	4-4	11-16	5-5	1W
Nets	11	22	0.333	109.5	114.3	-4.8	5-13	6-9	3-7	8-15	5-5	1W
Wizards	9	24	0.273	113.3	123.9	-10.6	5-11	4-13	1-4	6-17	6-4	2W
Pacers	6	30	0.167	110.6	119.7	-9.1	5-14	1-16	2-6	4-18	0-10	12L

Western Conference	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	30	5	0.857	122.4	107.1	15.3	17-2	13-3	6-2	24-5	6-4	4W
Spurs	25	10	0.714	119.7	114.2	5.5	12-5	13-5	7-0	14-8	7-3	1L
Nuggets	23	12	0.657	124.3	118.1	6.2	10-5	13-7	4-1	16-7	4-6	2L
Rockets	21	11	0.656	120	111.4	8.6	10-2	11-9	2-4	11-10	5-5	1L
Lakers	21	11	0.656	117.2	117.4	-0.2	9-6	12-5	4-4	16-8	5-5	1W
Timberwolves	22	13	0.629	118.9	114.6	4.3	12-6	10-7	4-4	13-10	6-4	1W
Suns	20	14	0.588	115.5	113.4	2.1	11-5	9-9	8-4	18-12	6-4	1W
Warriors	19	17	0.528	115.2	113.9	1.3	11-5	8-12	4-2	13-11	6-4	1W
Trail Blazers	16	20	0.444	116.3	119.6	-3.3	7-9	9-11	3-4	13-13	6-4	2W
Grizzlies	15	19	0.441	116	116.9	-0.9	7-9	8-10	4-3	13-10	4-6	3L
Mavericks	13	23	0.361	113.5	117.5	-4	10-10	3-13	3-6	7-16	3-7	1W
Clippers	12	22	0.353	112.4	114.6	-2.2	8-9	4-13	3-4	9-14	6-4	1L
Jazz	12	22	0.353	119.7	126.7	-7	8-11	4-11	0-6	7-16	3-7	3L
Kings	8	27	0.229	110.6	122.5	-11.9	5-11	3-16	1-6	6-22	2-8	4L
Pelicans	8	28	0.222	115.4	123.1	-7.7	6-16	2-12	3-6	4-22	4-6	6L

NBA	W	L	PCT	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Last 10	Strk
Thunder	30	5	0.857	122.4	107.1	15.3	17-2	13-3	6-2	24-5	6-4	4W
Pistons	26	9	0.743	118.8	112.7	6.1	13-3	13-6	6-3	18-6	6-4	1W
Spurs	25	10	0.714	119.7	114.2	5.5	12-5	13-5	7-0	14-8	7-3	1L
Nuggets	23	12	0.657	124.3	118.1	6.2	10-5	13-7	4-1	16-7	4-6	2L
Knicks	23	12	0.657	120.5	115	5.5	15-4	8-8	5-3	18-10	5-5	3L
Rockets	21	11	0.656	120	111.4	8.6	10-2	11-9	2-4	11-10	5-5	1L
Lakers	21	11	0.656	117.2	117.4	-0.2	9-6	12-5	4-4	16-8	5-5	1W
Celtics	22	12	0.647	117.9	110.7	7.2	10-5	12-7	5-4	15-8	7-3	3W
Timberwolves	22	13	0.629	118.9	114.6	4.3	12-6	10-7	4-4	13-10	6-4	1W
Suns	20	14	0.588	115.5	113.4	2.1	11-5	9-9	8-4	18-12	6-4	1W
Raptors	21	15	0.583	114.4	112.6	1.8	11-8	10-7	3-6	18-10	6-4	1W
76ers	19	14	0.576	117	116.1	0.9	9-8	10-6	7-3	14-12	6-4	3W
Magic	20	16	0.556	117.1	115.4	1.7	12-6	8-10	5-3	14-12	5-5	1W
Heat	19	16	0.543	120.7	117.6	3.1	12-6	7-10	3-3	12-10	5-5	1L
Cavaliers	20	17	0.541	119.2	116.8	2.4	13-9	7-8	6-3	13-13	5-5	1L
Warriors	19	17	0.528	115.2	113.9	1.3	11-5	8-12	4-2	13-11	6-4	1W
Bulls	17	18	0.486	118.3	121.8	-3.5	10-9	7-9	3-6	13-12	7-3	1L
Hawks	17	20	0.459	119	119.9	-0.9	6-11	11-9	4-3	10-14	2-8	1L
Trail Blazers	16	20	0.444	116.3	119.6	-3.3	7-9	9-11	3-4	13-13	6-4	2W
Grizzlies	15	19	0.441	116	116.9	-0.9	7-9	8-10	4-3	13-10	4-6	3L
Bucks	15	20	0.429	113.3	116	-2.7	9-9	6-11	5-4	13-14	5-5	1W
Mavericks	13	23	0.361	113.5	117.5	-4	10-10	3-13	3-6	7-16	3-7	1W
Clippers	12	22	0.353	112.4	114.6	-2.2	8-9	4-13	3-4	9-14	6-4	1L
Jazz	12	22	0.353	119.7	126.7	-7	8-11	4-11	0-6	7-16	3-7	3L
Hornets	12	23	0.343	115.8	118.5	-2.7	7-10	5-13	4-4	11-16	5-5	1W
Nets	11	22	0.333	109.5	114.3	-4.8	5-13	6-9	3-7	8-15	5-5	1W
Wizards	9	24	0.273	113.3	123.9	-10.6	5-11	4-13	1-4	6-17	6-4	2W
Kings	8	27	0.229	110.6	122.5	-11.9	5-11	3-16	1-6	6-22	2-8	4L
Pelicans	8	28	0.222	115.4	123.1	-7.7	6-16	2-12	3-6	4-22	4-6	6L
Pacers	6	30	0.167	110.6	119.7	-9.1	5-14	1-16	2-6	4-18	0-10	12L

• W = Wins
• L = Losses
• PCT = Winning Percentage
• PPG = Points Per Game
• OPP PPG = Opponent Points Per Game
• DIFF = Average Point Differential
• Home = Home Record
• Road = Away Record
• Div = Division Record
• Conf = Conference Record
• Last 10 = Record last 10 games
• Strk = Current Streak

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