Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Picks & Odds | 24 Apr 2025

Back Leafs to Have the Edge Over Sens

Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 25-13-3 Away) face Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 27-11-3 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round game at Canadian Tire Centre. The Leafs lead the series 2-0.

We can’t resist going for the Maple Leafs on the Moneyline, with our betting prediction made with confidence and there is -106 on offer that the visitors get the better of the Senators.

Last H2H Saw Leafs Triumph in Overtime

Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators went head-to-head on Tuesday night, with the Leafs securing a 3-2 (OT) win at Scotiabank Arena.

The Leafs had 21 shots on goal, with Morgan Rielly, John Tavares and Max Domi each scoring one goal. Goalie Anthony Stolarz made a total of 26 saves (.929). The Sens recorded 28 shots on goal, with Brady Tkachuk and Adam Gaudette scoring one goal apiece.

Head-to-Head Statistics

We’ve seen six Sens wins in the past 10 meetings between the teams.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	4-4-1	3.1	.893	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	5-4-2	3.4	.861	0
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

9 wins and 1 loss, averaging 3.5 goals from 25.4 shots on goal, with a 12.8% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have been giving up 1.6 goals from 29.4 shots, averaging 3.8 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 84.2%.

Mitchell Marner is the top points scorer with 15 points, 5 goals and 10 assists, with Auston Matthews racking up 13 points, 4 goals and 9 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.27 goal against average with a .954 save percentage, including three shutouts.

The Sens have 6 wins, 2 losses and 2 overtime losses, averaging 3.4 goals from 29.5 shots on goal, with a 18.2% powerplay efficiency. They have conceded 2.9 goals from 28.3 shots, averaging 4.2 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 83.3%.

The top points scorer is Thomas Chabot with 11 points, 3 goals and 8 assists, while Drake Batherson is next in line after registering 10 points, 6 goals and 4 assists. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 2.82 GAA with a .895 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

The best wager could be taking Toronto Maple Leafs to simply secure a victory in this NHL encounter. Our pick can be taken at odds of -106 on the Moneyline which yields a potentially nice return.

Injuries are taken into account by the hockey handicappers at Sportsgambler.com. Our NHL forecasts are also shaped by the latest form, with the team, player and goalie stats playing a big part before picks are made.

Key Maple Leafs vs Senators stats:

• Maple Leafs have won 5 of their last 5 games.
• Maple Leafs have won 9 of their last 10 games.
• Maple Leafs have won 7 consecutive games.
• Senators have lost 3 of their last 5 games.
• Senators have lost their last 2 games.
• Maple Leafs have won the last 2 games between these teams.

Leafs Moneyline Probability

The sportsbooks are estimating that there is a 51.5% likelihood of this pick winning. However, our analysts think that the probability sits between 55-60% taking all factors into consideration. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

If you’re confident with your Moneyline pick but want more juice from your wager, then a Bet Builder provides the opportunity to add in other selections for a bigger return.

Best Bet

Maple Leafs Moneyline @ -106 Bet Now

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Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Batherson Over 1.5 Shots -200

Drake Batherson (Senators) has covered the 1.5 shots on goal total in 4 straight home games. There is odds of -200 available when it comes to this Shots on Goal wager and we think he’ll cover the line.

Latest Drake Batherson Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+185

First

+1050

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

T&C apply. Gamble responsibly 18+

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 5 - 2 Senators

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the above betting predictions.

Tight Clash on the Cards According to the Books

You can choose Ottawa Senators at -128 or alternatively Toronto Maple Leafs who have betting odds of +106. The sportsbook traders give the road team a 49% probability of success.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 5.5. There are many ways to wager on the NHL including Totals. If you’re going for Over 5.5, then the odds are -115.

If you’re planning to place a National Hockey League wager, visit the betting sites and check out the huge selection of available team props and game lines. Find the odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+106

Senators

-128

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+170

Tie

+310

Senators

+128

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-250

Senators -1.5

+198

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-105

Over 5.5

-115

Auston Matthews Favorite to Be First Goalscorer

There’s the chance to back Auston Matthews at +750 to be the First Goalscorer. He’s the favorite and available at similar odds to find the net last instead.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+125

Anytime

+750

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

First

+175

Anytime

+1000

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+180

Anytime

+1000

Drake Batherson (Senators)

First

+185

Anytime

+1050

Tim Stützle (Senators)

First

+205

Anytime

+1100

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+215

Anytime

+1150

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+235

Anytime

+1300

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

First

+240

Anytime

+1300

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+250

Anytime

+1300

Ridly Greig (Senators)

First

+310

Anytime

+1600

Claude Giroux (Senators)

First

+310

Anytime

+1600

Shane Pinto (Senators)

First

+335

Anytime

+1700

David Perron (Senators)

First

+360

Anytime

+1800

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Adam Gaudette (Senators)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Max Pacioretty (Maple Leafs)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Michael Amadio (Senators)

First

+475

Anytime

+2200

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-118

Under 3.5

-110

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 3.5

-154

Under 3.5

+118

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-130

Under 2.5

-100

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-169

Drake Batherson (Senators)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 1.5

-175

Under 1.5

+135

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-182

Under 1.5

+138

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+140

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Claude Giroux (Senators)

Over 1.5

-114

Under 1.5

-114

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-116

Under 1.5

-111

Micro Betting

Micro betting provides an interesting rollercoaster ride for NHL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Ottawa Senators Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.20 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 9.2
• Blocks: 14.5
• Faceoff Wins : 31
• Hits: 25.5
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13
• Faceoff Wins : 30.6
• Hits: 24
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.4

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 28.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 4.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 10.5
• Blocks: 18.8
• Faceoff Wins : 27.5
• Hits: 33.5
• Giveaways: 13
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 27.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 7.9
• Blocks: 16.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29
• Hits: 29
• Giveaways: 13.5
• Takeaways: 5

Team News

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
16	Mitchell Marner	5	22.98	1	6	7	0
34	Auston Matthews	5	21.3	1	5	6	0
88	William Nylander	5	19.34	1	5	6	-3

91	John Tavares	5	17.84	3	2	5	-3
23	Matthew Knies	5	20.24	3	0	3	-1
44	Morgan Rielly	5	22.46	2	1	3	-1
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	5	20.6	2	0	2	2
2	Simon Benoit	5	18.24	1	1	2	0
74	Bobby McMann	5	13.22	0	1	1	-2
89	Nick Robertson	2	10.3	0	1	1	0
22	Jake McCabe	5	22.48	0	1	1	1
11	Max Domi	5	14.42	1	0	1	-1
24	Scott Laughton	5	14.3	0	1	1	0
19	Calle Jaernkrok	5	12.9	0	1	1	0
8	Christopher Tanev	5	20.02	0	1	1	2
18	Steven Lorentz	5	12.1	0	0	0	0
29	Pontus Holmberg	5	13.48	0	0	0	1
67	Max Pacioretty	3	12.57	0	0	0	-2
25	Brandon Carlo	5	19.1	0	0	0	0

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
41	Anthony Stolarz	5	2.25	0.899
60	Joseph Woll	-	-	-

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Ottawa Senators Player Stats & Roster

#	Player	GP	MIN	G	A	P	+/-
7	Brady Tkachuk	5	18.2	3	3	6	3
18	Tim Stutzle	5	20.02	2	3	5	2
28	Claude Giroux	5	17.54	1	3	4	3

85	Jake Sanderson	5	27.36	1	2	3	0
81	Adam Gaudette	5	9.56	1	2	3	2
57	David Perron	5	13.1	1	1	2	1
43	Tyler Kleven	5	15.54	0	2	2	1
12	Shane Pinto	5	20.6	1	1	2	-1
24	Dylan Cozens	5	16.46	1	1	2	0
19	Drake Batherson	5	17.28	1	1	2	-2
72	Thomas Chabot	5	24.7	1	1	2	0
22	Michael Amadio	5	16.74	0	1	1	-2
71	Ridly Greig	5	18.22	1	0	1	-2
2	Artyom Zub	5	23.54	0	1	1	0
20	Fabian Zetterlund	5	13.58	0	0	0	-1
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	5	12.68	0	0	0	2
3	Nick Jensen	5	21.4	0	0	0	-1
21	Nick Cousins	4	9.75	0	0	0	0
15	Matthew Highmore	1	9.2	0	0	0	-1

#	Goalies	GP	GAA	SV%
35	Linus Ullmark	5	2.8	0.883
31	Anton Forsberg	-	-	-

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Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups