Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction, Picks & Odds | 26 Apr 2025

Toronto Maple Leafs (52-26-4, 25-13-3 Away) square off against Ottawa Senators (45-30-7, 27-11-3 at Home) in this Stanley Cup Playoffs first round matchup at Canadian Tire Centre. The Leafs lead the series 3-0.

We are having a bet on the Senators to beat the Maple Leafs. You can back our prediction at odds of -114 on the Moneyline and we think this offers good value.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators faced off two nights ago and it was the Leafs who claimed a 3-2 (OT) victory at Canadian Tire Centre.

The Leafs had 20 shots on goal, with Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies and Simon Benoit scoring one goal each. The Sens recorded 20 shots on goal, with Claude Giroux and Brady Tkachuk each scoring one goal.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The previous 10 H2H meetings have involved the Sens winning six times.

Starting Goalies

Anthony Stolarz (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	6-6-1	3.7	.880	0
23/24	16-7-1	2.03	.925	2

Linus Ullmark (Confirmed)

Season	W-L-OTL:	GAA:	SV%:	SO:
24/25	14-8-5	3	.881	1
23/24	22-10-5	2.57	.915	2

9 wins and 1 loss, averaging 3.5 goals from 24.8 shots on goal, with a 14.3% powerplay efficiency. The Leafs have been giving up 1.6 goals from 28.3 shots, averaging 4.2 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 85.7%.

Mitchell Marner is the top points scorer with 15 points, 4 goals and 11 assists, with Auston Matthews racking up 14 points, 5 goals and 9 assists, in the last 10 games. Goalie Anthony Stolarz have a 1.26 goal against average with a .952 save percentage, including three shutouts.

The Sens have 5 wins, 2 losses and 3 overtime losses, averaging 3.4 goals from 29.6 shots on goal, with a 17.2% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 3.1 goals from 27.1 shots, averaging 4.3 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 81.4%.

The top points scorer is Drake Batherson with 11 points, 6 goals and 5 assists, while Thomas Chabot is next best after registering 11 points, 3 goals and 8 assists. Goalie Linus Ullmark have a 3.14 GAA with a .873 SV%, including one shutout.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction & Picks

Game Prediction

We’re heading to the Moneyline and our pick is for the home team to win this NHL encounter. They have a strong chance of landing a victory and the -114 makes plenty of appeal.

The formbook is always a good place to start ahead of making NHL picks. Team news is also an important port of call, while the player and goalie stats we present always tell an interesting story.

Key Maple Leafs vs Senators stats:

• Senators have won 14 of their last 20 games at home.
• Senators have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Senators have won 6 of their last 10 games against Maple Leafs.

Sens Moneyline Probability

According to the sportsbooks, there’s a 53.2% likelihood of our pick landing a return. However, our cappers research has found that the actual probability is closer to 60%. This is why we regard this as a value wager.

If you’re wanting bigger odds about Ottawa, then there are a number of alternative game lines and props including the 3-Way Moneyline, Puck Line and Winning Margin.

Our Game Prediction

Senators Moneyline @ -114 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (21:43, 25 April 2025). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Drake Batherson Over 1.5 Shots -192

Drake Batherson (Senators) has fired Over 1.5 shots on goal in 5 straight home games. We think it’s achievable that he will cover the Shots on Goal line and there are odds of -192 available.

Latest Drake Batherson Player Prop Odds

Goals

Anytime

+188

First

+1050

Shots on Goal

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Maple Leafs 1 - 3 Senators

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

There’s the opportunity to back Ottawa Senators at -128 on the Moneyline although Toronto Maple Leafs are priced up at betting odds of +106. The leading sportsbooks give the hosts a 56% chance of success.

The puck line is calculated to be 1.5, while total goals comes in at 5.5. NHL fans love the chance to get an alternative angle by going for a Totals wager. If you want to wager Over 5.5, there are odds of -114.

If you’re planning to place a National Hockey League bet, visit the betting sites and check out the wide range of game lines and team props. Find the lines and odds which are the most attractive.

Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+106

Senators

-128

3-Way Moneyline

Maple Leafs

+165

Tie

+325

Senators

+128

Puck Line

Maple Leafs +1.5

-233

Senators -1.5

+186

Total Goals

Under 5.5

-106

Over 5.5

-114

There is +125 available that Auston Matthews finds the net at anytime. If you’re interested in the favorite to score the first goal, then you are able to secure +750.

Player Goals

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

First

+125

Anytime

+750

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

First

+180

Anytime

+1000

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

First

+180

Anytime

+1000

Drake Batherson (Senators)

First

+188

Anytime

+1050

Tim Stützle (Senators)

First

+210

Anytime

+1100

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

First

+240

Anytime

+1200

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

First

+240

Anytime

+1200

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

First

+245

Anytime

+1300

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

First

+250

Anytime

+1300

Claude Giroux (Senators)

First

+320

Anytime

+1600

Ridly Greig (Senators)

First

+320

Anytime

+1600

Shane Pinto (Senators)

First

+340

Anytime

+1700

David Perron (Senators)

First

+370

Anytime

+1800

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

First

+390

Anytime

+1900

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

Adam Gaudette (Senators)

First

+400

Anytime

+1900

Fabian Zetterlund (Senators)

First

+430

Anytime

+2000

Max Domi (Maple Leafs)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Max Pacioretty (Maple Leafs)

First

+460

Anytime

+2200

Michael Amadio (Senators)

First

+475

Anytime

+2200

Nicholas Robertson (Maple Leafs)

First

+500

Anytime

+2200

Player Shots

Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs)

Over 3.5

-114

Under 3.5

-114

Brady Tkachuk (Senators)

Over 3.5

-161

Under 3.5

+125

William Nylander (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

-135

Under 2.5

+104

John Tavares (Maple Leafs)

Over 2.5

+115

Under 2.5

-149

Jake Sanderson (Senators)

Over 2.5

+130

Under 2.5

-169

Drake Batherson (Senators)

Over 1.5

-192

Under 1.5

+145

Tim Stützle (Senators)

Over 1.5

-185

Under 1.5

+140

Mitchell Marner (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

+120

Matthew Knies (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-164

Under 1.5

+125

Dylan Cozens (Senators)

Over 1.5

-200

Under 1.5

+150

Claude Giroux (Senators)

Over 1.5

-118

Under 1.5

-110

Bobby McMann (Maple Leafs)

Over 1.5

-125

Under 1.5

-103

Micro betting provides an interesting rollercoaster ride for NHL bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Goal and Next Goalscorer. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Toronto Maple Leafs Stats

Ottawa Senators Stats

Moneyline

• 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 games
• 6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 home games

Puck Line

• +1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 9 of the last 10 games
• +1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road

Puck Line

• -1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 3 of the last 10 games
• -1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 4 of the last 10 home games

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 5.30 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 5.90 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 5.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.20 goals and allowed 2.10 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.20 pts and allowed 2.70 goals in the last 10 games on the road

Total Goals

• Game Totals: An average of 6.90 goals in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.20 goals in the previous 10 home games
• Over 5.5: Covered in 7 of the previous 10 games
• Over 5.5 at Home: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.50 goals and allowed 3.40 goals in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 home games

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.6
• Goals Shorthanded: 0
• Penalties: 4.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.1
• Penalty Minutes: 9.2
• Blocks: 14.5
• Faceoff Wins : 31
• Hits: 25.5
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 5.1

Last 10 Games on the Road

• Goals Powerplay: 0.6
• Shots: 26.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 4
• Empty Net Goals: 0.2
• Penalty Minutes: 9.4
• Blocks: 13
• Faceoff Wins : 30.6
• Hits: 24
• Giveaways: 13.6
• Takeaways: 4.4

Team Stats - Avg/Game

Last 10 Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 28.4
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
• Penalties: 4.6
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 10.5
• Blocks: 18.8
• Faceoff Wins : 27.5
• Hits: 33.5
• Giveaways: 13
• Takeaways: 4.2

Last 10 Home Games

• Goals Powerplay: 1
• Shots: 27.5
• Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
• Penalties: 3.3
• Empty Net Goals: 0.3
• Penalty Minutes: 7.9
• Blocks: 16.7
• Faceoff Wins : 29
• Hits: 29
• Giveaways: 13.5
• Takeaways: 5

Injuries & Suspensions

Starting Lineups

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