Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 May 2026

Champions League Semi-Final Betting Preview: Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid

Arsenal host Atlético Madrid in the second leg of this UEFA Champions League semi-final at Emirates Stadium, with kick-off set for 15:00 on Tuesday 5 May. The first leg ended 1-1.

Our top pick is Arsenal to win on the Full-Time Result market. The Gunners have the best home record in the Premier League and have won five of their six home games in the Champions League this season. The only match they did not win came against Sporting, when a draw was enough to secure progression.

Considering the team and player xG data, along with home and away form, the current injury situation and the overall strength of the sides, we expect Arsenal to come out on top here. At -159, this looks like a value bet.

Premier League leaders Arsenal were winners on Saturday night. Landing a 3-0 Premier League home triumph against Fulham at Emirates Stadium. Mikel Arteta's team boasted 54% possession and had nine shots on target, while Viktor Gyoekeres netted twice along with a goal for Bukayo Saka.

Atlético Madrid got the win in their previous game. A 2-0 La Liga victory occurred on the road at Estadio Mestalla when playing Valencia. Los Colchoneros had six shots on goal and 47% possession, while Iker Luque and Miguel Llorente were on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The first leg at Riyadh Air Metropolitano ended 1-1, with Atléti enjoying 52% possession and dominating shots on target 6-2. Both goals came from the penalty spot, with Viktor Gyoekeres scoring for Arsenal and Julian Alvarez for Atleti.

Champions League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
1	Arsenal	8	8	0	0	23	4	19	23:4	24
14	Atlético Madrid	8	4	1	3	17	15	2	17:15	13

View Full Table

5 wins, 2 losses and 3 draws, averaging 1.3 goals from 4.8 shots on goal and 13.7 attempts. Arsenal have had 52.1% possession, 448.8 passes and 5.9 corners per game. On average, the North London outfit have conceded 0.6 goals from 3.2 shots on goal and 11.1 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 4.1 corners.

Top goalscorer Viktor Gyoekeres has found the net 5 times, with Kai Havertz and Eberechi Eze scoring 3 and 2 respectively. The leading assistors are Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli with 2, while goalie David Raya has recorded 6 clean sheets.

Atléti have won 3, lost 6 and drawn 1, averaging 4.4 shots on goal, 12.0 attempts and 1.7 goals. Diego Simeone's team average 46.0% possession, 419.1 passes, 3.7 corners taken and 5.6 corners against them, while 1.8 goals have been conceded from 15.1 attempts and 5.7 shots on goal.

The top scorers have been Julian Alvarez and Alexander Soerloth on 3, with Nico Gonzalez getting 2. Julian Alvarez has been chief assist maker on 2, with Juan Musso recording 2 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Arsenal confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): David Raya (GK), Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Leandro Trossard, Viktor Gyoekeres.

Atlético Madrid confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Jan Oblak (GK), Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand, David Hancko, Matteo Ruggeri, Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Koke, Ademola Lookman, Antoine Griezmann, Julian Alvarez.

Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Prediction & Betting Tips

This Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid betting guide features sharp analysis across major markets, including a match prediction, correct score bet, corner kick insight, valuable player prop picks and a strategic bet builder.

Match Prediction

Arsenal are priced at -159 to secure a victory and we think these odds look too big. We’re expecting the hosts to progress to the final, making this an appealing betting option.

The team news that emerges can have an impact on the odds depending on which players are missing. Our football experts also study the form guide, while the latest stats are also checked before a Champions League verdict is reached.

Key Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Champions League & league stats:

• Arsenal have won 16 of their last 20 games at home.
• Arsenal have won 7 of their last 10 games at home.
• Arsenal have won 2 consecutive games at home.
• Atléti have lost 6 of their last 10 games.
• Atléti have lost 3 of their last 5 games on the road.

The betting apps are estimating that there is a 61.3% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Based on our experts research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 70%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.

If you’re looking for bigger odds, check out Arsenal on the Asian Handicap. You can potentially back them at -1 or even -1.5 if you’re expecting a comfortable win.

Considering placing a bet? Explore today’s best welcome bonuses and sign-up offers in our full guide before you get started.

Our Match Prediction

Arsenal To Win @ -159 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 3, 21:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Arsenal 2 - 0 Atléti

The Gunners can be backed to win 2-0 when it comes to the correct score. We’ll go for the +600 that this happens and hopefully we’ll get a good run for our money.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Ademola Lookman Over 1.5 Shots -109

Ademola Lookman (Atléti) has recorded over 1.5 shots in his past two matches. We think it’s achievable that he will cover the Player Shots line and there are odds of -109 available.

Latest Ademola Lookman Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+475

First

+1200

Shots

Over 1.5

-141

Under 1.5

-

---

Gabriel Martinelli To Score +250

Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal) is available to be on the scoresheet at +250. Using all evidence, we are happy to back him to find the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Gabriel Martinelli Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+250

First

+650

Shots

Over 1.5

-333

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Under 9.5 Corners -100

The 9.5 Total Corners line has not been covered in three straight Arsenal games, while the same outcome has happened in three  consecutive Atlético Madrid matches. We think that the teams will come up short and this Total Corners wager can be backed at -100.

Champions League & League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Arsenal

Total

10.00 5.90 4.10

Home

11.20 7.60 3.60

Away

8.70 4.70 4.00

Atléti

Total

9.30 3.70 5.60

Home

8.50 4.80 3.70

Away

10.70 4.90 5.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-109

Under 10.5

-130

Arsenal Corners

Over 6.5

-109

Under 6.5

-130

Atléti Corners

Over 3.5

-125

Under 3.5

-114

Most Corners

1

-294

X

+750

2

+270

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The favourites are 65% likely to win according to the latest betting odds, with Arsenal being priced at -182 to come away with a victory in this Champions League encounter. The market suggests that Atlético Madrid are least likely to win at +500.

Arsenal have been priced at -105 when it comes to the Asian Handicap -1 market. A 2+ goal victory over Atléti would land a return, while it’s money back if they win by a single goal.

The current odds reflect that there’s not much between Under 2.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals. If you’re looking to wager on Both Teams to Score, there’s not a lot of difference between Yes and No.

The best betting sites push the boat out to ensure that football bettors can select from hundreds of markets. You can access them for every Champions League match before making a decision.

Full-Time Result

1

-182

X

+320

2

+500

Half-Time Result

1

+120

X

+128

2

+425

Double Chance

1X

-769

12

-455

X2

+138

Draw No Bet

1

-526

2

+300

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -1

-105

2 Hcp +1

-119

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-110

Over 2.5

-112

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-106

No

-122

Viktor Gyökeres is the market leader to be First Goalscorer at +360 while there’s also the chance to back him to find the net at +145.

Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal)

First

+145

Anytime

+360

Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal)

First

+210

Anytime

+525

Kai Havertz (Arsenal)

First

+210

Anytime

+525

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)

First

+220

Anytime

+575

Eberechi Eze (Arsenal)

First

+230

Anytime

+575

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

First

+230

Anytime

+600

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

First

+240

Anytime

+600

Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal)

First

+250

Anytime

+650

Leandro Trossard (Arsenal)

First

+280

Anytime

+700

Noni Madueke (Arsenal)

First

+290

Anytime

+700

Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)

First

+420

Anytime

+1000

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

First

+475

Anytime

+1200

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

First

+480

Anytime

+1150

Declan Rice (Arsenal)

First

+480

Anytime

+1200

Christian Nørgaard (Arsenal)

First

+600

Anytime

+1500

Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Álex Baena (Atléti)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Jurriën Timber (Arsenal)

First

+650

Anytime

+1700

Martín Zubimendi (Arsenal)

First

+700

Anytime

+1700

Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal)

First

+700

Anytime

+1700

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

First

+750

Anytime

+1800

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Cristhian Mosquera (Arsenal)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Ben White (Arsenal)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Piero Hincapié (Arsenal)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal)

Over 3.5

-133

Under 3.5

-

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)

Over 2.5

-141

Under 2.5

-

Eberechi Eze (Arsenal)

Over 2.5

-111

Under 2.5

-

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

Over 2.5

-125

Under 2.5

-

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

Over 2.5

-122

Under 2.5

-

Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal)

Over 2.5

-152

Under 2.5

-

Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal)

Over 1.5

+104

Under 1.5

-

Declan Rice (Arsenal)

Over 1.5

+140

Under 1.5

-

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

Over 1.5

-141

Under 1.5

-

Antoine Griezmann (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+112

Under 1.5

-

Noni Madueke (Arsenal)

Over 1.5

-238

Under 1.5

-

Leandro Trossard (Arsenal)

Over 1.5

-217

Under 1.5

-

Gabriel Martinelli (Arsenal)

Over 1.5

-333

Under 1.5

-

Kai Havertz (Arsenal)

Over 1.5

-370

Under 1.5

-

Christian Nørgaard (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

-179

Under 0.5

-

Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

-

Álex Baena (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

-

Jurriën Timber (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Martín Zubimendi (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

-164

Under 0.5

-

Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

-154

Under 0.5

-

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-185

Under 0.5

-

Thiago Almada (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-167

Under 0.5

-

Cristhian Mosquera (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

+114

Under 0.5

-

Ben White (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

+114

Under 0.5

-

Piero Hincapié (Arsenal)

Over 0.5

+114

Under 0.5

-

Latest Champions League and domestic league stats. Full Time Result, Goals, Corners and Possession.

Arsenal Stats

Atlético Madrid Stats

Full-Time Result

• 5 wins, 2 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 matches
• 7 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches

Full-Time Result

• 3 wins, 6 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
• 3 wins, 5 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches

Goals

• An average of 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
• An average of 1.90 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 3 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 home matches

Goals

• An average of 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
• An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
• An average of 3.20 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
• BTTS Yes in 8 of the previous 10 matches
• BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
• Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 away matches

Corners

• An average of 5.90 corners awarded and 4.10 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 7.60 corners awarded and 3.60 corners against in the last 10 home matches
• An average of 10.00 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 11.20 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
• Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches

Corners

• An average of 3.70 corners awarded and 5.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 4.90 corners awarded and 5.80 corners against in the last 10 away matches
• An average of 9.30 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
• An average of 10.70 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
• Had the most corners in 2 and least corners in 6 of the last 10 matches
• Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches

Possession

• An average of 52.10% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 53.10% possession in the last 10 home matches
• Most possession in 6 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 6 of the last 10 home matches

Possession

• An average of 46.00% possession in the last 10 matches
• An average of 50.30% possession in the last 10 away matches
• Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
• Most possession in 4 of the last 10 away matches

Arsenal vs Atlético Madrid Lineups & Team News

Be smart with your bets — check the Arsenal vs Atléti team news beforehand. We’ll deliver both predicted and confirmed lineups for the Champions League as well as the latest injury reports.

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