Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 04 Mar 2026

Premier League Betting Preview: Aston Villa vs Chelsea

Fourth-placed Aston Villa square off against sixth-placed Chelsea at Villa Park, with kick-off set for 14:30 on Wednesday 4 March.

We’ll split our stake by backing Aston Villa +0.25 at odds of -135 for this Asian Handicap wager. It means we have a return if they draw but a nice payout should the Villans claim a victory against Chelsea.

Aston Villa were beaten 2–0 away to bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux in their last game. The Birmingham outfit had the majority of the ball boasting 62% possession and five shots on target.

Chelsea lost on the road in their previous game. Premier League leaders Arsenal won 2-1 at Emirates Stadium. Liam Rosenior's team enjoyed 59% possession and recorded three shots on goal, while Piero Hincapie (own goal) was on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Villa have won the last two head-to-heads against Chelsea. A 2-1 win on their travels at Stamford Bridge came after a 2-1 home success at Villa Park. In the previous 10 H2H meetings, there have been four wins apiece and two draws.

Premier League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Aston Villa	33	17	7	9	47	41	6	47:41	58
6	Chelsea	33	13	9	11	53	42	11	53:42	48

View Full Table

3 wins, 4 losses and 3 draws, averaging 0.9 goals from 14.7 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal. Villa have had 58.6% possession, 486.5 passes and 5.8 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 1.1 goals from 12.0 attempts and 4.3 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 3.9 corners.

Ollie Watkins is the top goalscorer with 3, John McGinn has 2, with Tammy Abraham and two other players on 1. Morgan Rogers is top assists maker with 2, while goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has kept 2 clean sheets.

Chelsea have 4 victories, 2 defeats and 4 draws, with an average of 1.9 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 12.5 attempts. There’s been an average of 58.6% possession, 556.1 passes, 6.9 corners awarded and 4.3 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.4 goals from 4.5 shots on goal and 12.6 attempts.

The top scorers have been Cole Palmer with 6, Joao Pedro on 5 and Enzo Fernandez 4. Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer and Marc Cucurella have clocked up 1 assists, with Robert Sanchez keeping one clean sheet in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Aston Villa confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martinez (GK), Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana, Douglas Luiz, Leon Bailey, Emiliano Buendia, Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins.

Chelsea confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Filip Joergensen (GK), Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Reece James, Moises Caicedo, Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Alejandro Garnacho, Joao Pedro.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips

From our key match prediction to corners advice, correct score pick, top player prop insights and a builder tailored for value — our Aston Villa vs Chelsea betting tips covers it all.

Match Prediction

We’re backing Aston Villa at -135 in this Premier League game with a +0.25 goal start. We think that the home team will have the edge and we can therefore feel confident of a return with this bet.

The Premier League form is always taken into consideration and it’s great to combine this with team news as it becomes available. In order to provide expert football betting tips, the latest stats are analysed so that we have the best information.

Key Aston Villa vs Chelsea league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Villa in 17 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Villa in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Villa in 2 consecutive games at home.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Chelsea in 3 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Chelsea in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Chelsea in 12 of their last 20 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Villa in 2 consecutive games against Chelsea.

If you go by the top bookies, there’s a 57.5% likelihood of our pick winning. However, our research has found that the actual probability is between 60-65%. That means we’re regarding it as a value wager.

If you’re looking for a bigger potential return on your stake, there is always the alternative to move the line. Consider the odds and whether each line can be covered.

Unlock the best welcome bonuses and free bet offers before you wager—check our updated betting promo code guide today.

Our Match Prediction

Aston Villa Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -135 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Mar 2, 20:58). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Aston Villa 2 - 1 Chelsea

There’s the option to wager on Aston Villa to win by a 2-1 scoreline. Odds of +750 are on offer and this is a correct score bet that should provide plenty of entertainment.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cole Palmer Over 2.5 Shots -133

Cole Palmer (Chelsea) has had over 2.5 shots in four of his past five Premier League games. We’re expecting him to produce a high level of performance and cover the Player Shots line, with odds of -133 on offer.

Latest Cole Palmer Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+200

First

+550

Shots

Over 2.5

-102

Under 2.5

-

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Ollie Watkins to Score +220

Ollie Watkins (Villa) has registered three goals in his past nine Premier League matches. The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +220.

Latest Ollie Watkins Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+190

First

+500

Shots

Over 2.5

+107

Under 2.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Chelsea To Have Most Corners +105

Chelsea have won the Corner Match Bet in six straight games. We think that the value can be found by backing Chelsea to have the most corners and we like the odds of +105.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Aston Villa

Total

9.70 5.80 3.90

Home

10.40 6.20 4.20

Away

8.80 4.50 4.30

Chelsea

Total

11.20 6.90 4.30

Home

10.90 6.90 4.00

Away

9.60 5.20 4.40

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-132

Under 9.5

-106

Aston Villa Corners

Over 4.5

-154

Under 4.5

+108

Chelsea Corners

Over 4.5

-106

Under 4.5

-132

Most Corners

1

-125

X

+650

2

+128

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

This Premier League encounter sees Chelsea available at +160 and Aston Villa priced at +165 for the victory. If you want to back the game to finish level, the bookies have odds of +240 about the draw.

The Draw No Bet market simplifies things as it offers two options and money back if the game finishes level. Chelsea are -123, while Villa are alternatively priced at -115.

The expectation is that Over 2.5 Goals will be scored according to the latest odds. BTTS Yes is available at -182 for anyone expecting Both Teams to Score.

There’s lots to like about our recommended football betting sites and that includes the hundreds of markets available for each Premier League game. You are spoilt for choice when it comes to available options.

Full-Time Result

1

+165

X

+240

2

+160

Half-Time Result

1

+210

X

+130

2

+205

Double Chance

1X

-204

12

-333

X2

-217

Draw No Bet

1

-115

2

-123

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.25

-149

2 Hcp -0.25

+120

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+110

Over 2.5

-137

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-182

No

+135

There is +190 available that Ollie Watkins finds the net anytime. If you’re interested in the favourite to score the first goal, then you are able to secure +500.

Ollie Watkins (Villa)

First

+190

Anytime

+500

Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

First

+200

Anytime

+550

Morgan Rogers (Villa)

First

+200

Anytime

+550

João Pedro (Chelsea)

First

+210

Anytime

+550

Tammy Abraham (Villa)

First

+210

Anytime

+575

Liam Delap (Chelsea)

First

+260

Anytime

+650

Emiliano Buendía (Villa)

First

+300

Anytime

+800

Enzo Fernández (Chelsea)

First

+300

Anytime

+850

Marc Guiu (Chelsea)

First

+350

Anytime

+900

Pedro Neto (Chelsea)

First

+380

Anytime

+1000

Ross Barkley (Villa)

First

+380

Anytime

+1050

Alejandro Garnacho (Chelsea)

First

+420

Anytime

+1100

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Villa)

First

+500

Anytime

+1200

Jadon Sancho (Villa)

First

+500

Anytime

+1200

Leon Bailey (Villa)

First

+525

Anytime

+1300

Matty Cash (Villa)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Andrey Nascimento dos Santos (Chelsea)

First

+600

Anytime

+1700

Douglas Luiz (Villa)

First

+650

Anytime

+1600

Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Reece James (Chelsea)

First

+700

Anytime

+1900

Ian Maatsen (Villa)

First

+700

Anytime

+2000

Malo Gusto (Chelsea)

First

+850

Anytime

+2200

Ollie Watkins (Villa)

Over 2.5

+107

Under 2.5

-

Morgan Rogers (Villa)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-

João Pedro (Chelsea)

Over 2.5

+123

Under 2.5

-

Tammy Abraham (Villa)

Over 2.5

+132

Under 2.5

-

Cole Palmer (Chelsea)

Over 2.5

-102

Under 2.5

-

Ross Barkley (Villa)

Over 1.5

-141

Under 1.5

-

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Villa)

Over 1.5

+160

Under 1.5

-

Alejandro Garnacho (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-152

Under 1.5

-

Marc Guiu (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-119

Under 1.5

-

Enzo Fernández (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

-

Emiliano Buendía (Villa)

Over 1.5

-152

Under 1.5

-

Liam Delap (Chelsea)

Over 1.5

-179

Under 1.5

-

Jadon Sancho (Villa)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Leon Bailey (Villa)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Matty Cash (Villa)

Over 0.5

-154

Under 0.5

-

Andrey Nascimento dos Santos (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

Douglas Luiz (Villa)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-

Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

-185

Under 0.5

-

Reece James (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

-179

Under 0.5

-

Ian Maatsen (Villa)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Malo Gusto (Chelsea)

Over 0.5

+112

Under 0.5

-

Villa have recorded six victories, three defeats and one draw in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10.

Chelsea have four victories, three draws and three defeats in the last 10 away matches, netting an average of 1.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

The last Villa Park meeting saw Villa beat Chelsea 2-1. In the past 7 H2H games at Villa Park, there have been four Chelsea victories, two Villa wins and a draw.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Aston Villa Home Stats		6-1-3	2.50	1.40	1.10	5	5	6	4
Chelsea Away Stats		4-3-3	2.70	1.50	1.20	6	4	7	3

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Aston Villa vs Chelsea Lineups & Team News

The Villa vs Chelsea team news could change everything — review it before betting. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Premier League lineups and the latest on injuries.

Aston Villa Team Page Chelsea Team Page

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