Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 20 Sep 2026

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Atléti Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -116

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There’s a strong case for backing Atléti +0.5 on the Asian Handicap in their meeting with Real. Landing odds of -116 looks like great value and we simply need Los Colchoneros to avoid a defeat here.

This Atléti vs Real betting analysis delivers a full overview of our main match prediction, alongside our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Preview

Atlético Madrid host city rivals Real Madrid in the Madrid derby at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, with kick-off set for 10:15 on Sunday 20 September.

Atlético Madrid have picked up 13 points from their opening six La Liga games, including back-to-back victories. Last time out, they recorded a 4-0 home win against Osasuna at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. Diego Simeone's team enjoyed 68% possession and had eleven shots on target, with Jonathan David, Kang-In Lee, Robin Le Normand and Alejandro Baena all finding the net.

Real Madrid have started the La Liga season with five wins and one defeat from their first six matches. Los Merengues have won their last two, most recently recording a 3-2 victory away against Elche at Estadio Martínez Valero. They had 44% possession and four shots on target, with Kylian Mbappe, Carlos Espi and a Matias Dituro own goal accounting for the goals.

H2H: Real Won 3-2 When Teams Last Met

The last head-to-head saw Real land a 3-2 home victory over Atléti at Santiago Bernabéu. The past 10 H2H matches have witnessed four draws along with three wins each.

La Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
2	Atlético Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	14	22:8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	18	28:10	27

View Full Table

Atléti have 6 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.8 goals from 5.3 shots on goal and 15.2 attempts. Los Colchoneros have averaged 53.6% possession, 519.7 passes and 6.4 corners per match, conceding 1.3 goals and 4.1 corners from 4.5 shots on goal and 12.7 attempts.

Alejandro Baena is the top goalscorer with 4, Ademola Lookman has 3, with Jonathan David and two other players on 2. David Hancko, Marcos Llorente and Antoine Griezmann are tied for the most assists on 2, with goalie Jan Oblak managing 4 clean sheets.

Real have won 8 and lost 2, with an average of 2.4 goals from 6.6 shots on goal and 17.3 attempts. Jose Mourinho's men have averaged 57.0% possession, 557.6 passes, 6.5 corners awarded and 4.0 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.0 goals from 3.8 shots on goal and 11.3 attempts.

Kylian Mbappe is the leading scorer with 8 goals, followed by Jude Bellingham on 5, with Carlos Espi and two others bagging 2. Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior have managed 3 assists in the last 10 games, while Thibaut Courtois has 3 clean sheets to his name.

Confirmed Lineups

Atlético Madrid confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Jan Oblak (GK), Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, David Hancko, Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Johnny Cardoso, Alejandro Grimaldo, Kang-In Lee, Alejandro Baena, Jonathan David.

Real Madrid confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois (GK), Denzel Dumfries, Ibrahima Konate, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella, Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Guler, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe.

Main Match Prediction

Atléti +0.5 could be the best bet to have and the latest stats back this up. Take the hosts at -116 on the Asian Handicap for the Madrid derby, with this being a confident selection on the underdogs.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):

• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atléti in 4 consecutive games at home.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atléti in 17 of their last 20 games at home.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atléti in 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• The +0.5 line has been covered by Atléti in 8 of their last 10 games against Real.

The first port of call is to check out the La Liga injury and suspension news for each side and then scroll through the form guide. We take this information and apply it to the latest available stats to come up with a verdict.

The top betting apps make it a 53.8% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, our tipsters have this number closer to 60% based on their in-depth research. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

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Atléti Asian Hcp +0.5 @ -116 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Sep 18, 16:28). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Atléti 2 - 2 Real

There’s plenty of juice to be found by backing the two teams to draw 2-2. We can’t pass up the odds of +900 when it comes to correct score betting and it’s a fun wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Vinicius Junior Over 2.5 Shots -132

Vinicius Junior (Real) has finished with over 2.5 shots in back-to-back La Liga games. We’re going to take him on the Overs for Player Shots, with this line making plenty of appeal at odds of -132.

Latest Vinicius Junior Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+200

First

+600

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

-

Shots

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-

---

Kang-In Lee to Score +320

Kang-In Lee (Atléti) has managed two goals in his past six La Liga matches. We think this is the pick of the player props, with a generous +320 available when it comes to backing him to score at any time.

Latest Kang-In Lee Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+320

First

+900

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-

Shots

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Atléti Over 4.5 Corners -141

Atléti have had over 4.5 corners in five straight home matches. There’s an opportunity to go over the Atléti Team Corners line and we’re expecting this to happen, with odds of -141 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Atléti

Total

10.50 6.40 4.10

Home

9.70 6.50 3.20

Away

10.70 4.60 6.10

Real

Total

10.50 6.50 4.00

Home

10.60 6.80 3.80

Away

10.20 6.40 3.80

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-110

Under 10.5

-130

Atléti Corners

Over 4.5

-137

Under 4.5

-103

Real Corners

Over 5.5

+108

Under 5.5

-154

Most Corners

1

+110

X

+650

2

-111

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookmakers have Real Madrid as +106 favourites for the Madrid derby, with the 1x2 odds suggesting that they are 49% likely to triumph. The market suggests that Atlético Madrid are least likely to win at +235.

As the name suggests, the Draw No Bet market means money back if the game ends level. Should you take this option, then you can choose between Real at -204 and Atléti at +138.

The lowest odds can be found for Over 2.5 Goals, which means at least three goals being netted. Punters expecting both teams to find the net can get -222 when it comes to BTTS Yes.

If you’re betting on La Liga games, we recommend heading to the best football betting sites and scanning through the hundreds of markets. There’s a chance to bet pre-match and In-Play.

Full-Time Result

1

+235

X

+265

2

+106

Half-Time Result

1

+245

X

+145

2

+150

Double Chance

1X

-133

12

-370

X2

-333

Draw No Bet

1

+138

2

-204

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +0.5

-128

2 Hcp -0.5

+102

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+148

Over 2.5

-192

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-222

No

+160

Favourite Kylian Mbappé is priced at +280 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of -125.

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

First

+280

Anytime

-125

Carlos Espí (Real)

First

+475

Anytime

+150

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

First

+575

Anytime

+180

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

First

+575

Anytime

+190

Vinicius Junior (Real)

First

+600

Anytime

+200

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

First

+650

Anytime

+210

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real)

First

+650

Anytime

+210

Jude Bellingham (Real)

First

+650

Anytime

+220

Jonathan David (Atléti)

First

+650

Anytime

+220

Yan Diomande (Real)

First

+750

Anytime

+240

Álex Baena (Atléti)

First

+900

Anytime

+320

Kang-In Lee (Atléti)

First

+900

Anytime

+320

Arda Guler (Real)

First

+1200

Anytime

+410

Álex Grimaldo (Atléti)

First

+1300

Anytime

+440

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

First

+1200

Anytime

+450

Brahim Díaz (Real)

First

+1200

Anytime

+450

Federico Valverde (Real)

First

+1500

Anytime

+525

Bernardo Silva (Real)

First

+1600

Anytime

+550

Rodrigo Mendoza (Atléti)

First

+1700

Anytime

+575

Denzel Dumfries (Real)

First

+1800

Anytime

+600

Thiago Pitarch (Real)

First

+1900

Anytime

+650

Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real)

First

+1900

Anytime

+650

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real)

First

+2000

Anytime

+700

Antonio Rüdiger (Real)

First

+2200

Anytime

+750

Pablo Barrios (Atléti)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Dean Huijsen (Real)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Ibrahima Konaté (Real)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Álvaro Fernández Carreras (Real)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Raúl Asencio del Rosario (Real)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Eduardo Camavinga (Real)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-250

Under 0.5

-

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-238

Under 0.5

-

Vinicius Junior (Real)

Over 0.5

-217

Under 0.5

-

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

-

Jude Bellingham (Real)

Over 0.5

-200

Under 0.5

-

Jonathan David (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-192

Under 0.5

-

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-

Yan Diomande (Real)

Over 0.5

-135

Under 0.5

-

Kang-In Lee (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-

Álex Baena (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-100

Under 0.5

-

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-

Carlos Espí (Real)

Over 1.5

+135

Under 1.5

-

Álex Grimaldo (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+135

Under 0.5

-

Arda Guler (Real)

Over 0.5

+140

Under 0.5

-

Federico Valverde (Real)

Over 0.5

+155

Under 0.5

-

Brahim Díaz (Real)

Over 0.5

+160

Under 0.5

-

Rodrigo Mendoza (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-

Bernardo Silva (Real)

Over 0.5

+210

Under 0.5

-

Denzel Dumfries (Real)

Over 0.5

+220

Under 0.5

-

Thiago Pitarch (Real)

Over 0.5

+240

Under 0.5

-

Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-

Pablo Barrios (Atléti)

Over 0.5

+260

Under 0.5

-

Dean Huijsen (Real)

Over 0.5

+280

Under 0.5

-

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real)

Over 0.5

+290

Under 0.5

-

Antonio Rüdiger (Real)

Over 0.5

+300

Under 0.5

-

Raúl Asencio del Rosario (Real)

Over 0.5

+320

Under 0.5

-

Álvaro Fernández Carreras (Real)

Over 0.5

+330

Under 0.5

-

Ibrahima Konaté (Real)

Over 0.5

+340

Under 0.5

-

Eduardo Camavinga (Real)

Over 0.5

+350

Under 0.5

-

Kylian Mbappé (Real)

Over 4.5

-111

Under 4.5

-

Carlos Espí (Real)

Over 3.5

+130

Under 3.5

-

Alexander Sørloth (Atléti)

Over 3.5

-112

Under 3.5

-

Julián Álvarez (Atléti)

Over 3.5

+120

Under 3.5

-

Endrick Moreira de Sousa (Real)

Over 3.5

+105

Under 3.5

-

Vinicius Junior (Real)

Over 2.5

-123

Under 2.5

-

Ademola Lookman (Atléti)

Over 2.5

-143

Under 2.5

-

Jude Bellingham (Real)

Over 2.5

+105

Under 2.5

-

Jonathan David (Atléti)

Over 2.5

-141

Under 2.5

-

Álex Baena (Atléti)

Over 2.5

+120

Under 2.5

-

Kang-In Lee (Atléti)

Over 2.5

+135

Under 2.5

-

Yan Diomande (Real)

Over 1.5

-149

Under 1.5

-

Arda Guler (Real)

Over 1.5

+108

Under 1.5

-

Álex Grimaldo (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+112

Under 1.5

-

Giuliano Simeone (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+123

Under 1.5

-

Rodrigo Mendoza (Atléti)

Over 1.5

+145

Under 1.5

-

Brahim Díaz (Real)

Over 0.5

-244

Under 0.5

-

Federico Valverde (Real)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

-

Bernardo Silva (Real)

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

-

Denzel Dumfries (Real)

Over 0.5

-182

Under 0.5

-

Thiago Pitarch (Real)

Over 0.5

-114

Under 0.5

-

Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-

Antonio Rüdiger (Real)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Pablo Barrios (Atléti)

Over 0.5

-109

Under 0.5

-

Dean Huijsen (Real)

Over 0.5

+102

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Last 10 La Liga matches only.
Atléti have swerved defeat at Riyadh Air Metropolitano in the previous four matches. Los Colchoneros have clocked up seven wins, two defeats and one draw in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 2.10 goals per match and conceding 1.10.

Real have five wins, four losses and one draw in the last 10 away games, scoring an average of 1.30 goals per match and conceding 1.20.

When the sides last met at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Atléti beat Real 5-2. It’s been three Atléti wins, three draws and two Real victories in the past 8 H2H meetings at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Atlético Madrid Home Stats		7-1-2	3.20	2.10	1.10	6	4	5	5
Real Madrid Away Stats		5-1-4	2.50	1.30	1.20	5	5	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Lineups & Team News

Double-check the Atléti vs Real team news before placing your bets. We’ll share the predicted and confirmed lineups for La Liga together with updated injury news.

Atlético Madrid Team Page Real Madrid Team Page

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