Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 10 May 2026

Premier League Betting Preview: Burnley vs Aston Villa

Relegated Burnley square off against fifth-placed Aston Villa at Turf Moor, with kick-off set for 09:00 on Sunday 10 May.

In order for our Burnley +1 bet to land at odds of -116, we need the hosts to win or draw against Aston Villa. However, a defeat by one goal would be enough to get our Asian Handicap stake returned.

With Villa having had a very busy schedule of late and sitting three points clear of Bournemouth in the race for the final Champions League spot, we think the Clarets can put up a strong fight here.

Burnley lost on the road in their last game, making it five straight defeats. Leeds United won 3-1 at Elland Road. Mike Jackson's men had 52% of possession and three shots on target, while Loum Tchaouna bagged the goal.

Aston Villa have been defeated in back-to-back Premier League outings. In a recent home game at Villa Park, they were turned over 2-1 by Tottenham. The Villans recorded one shot on goal and had 45% possession, while Emiliano Buendia found the net.

Three days ago, Villa beat Nottingham Forest 4-0 at home in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final, advancing to the final with a 4-1 aggregate victory.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It’s been three straight wins for Villa when playing Burnley. Their last clash was at Villa Park, with Villa claiming a 2-1 home victory. The past 9 H2H meetings have resulted in five Villa wins, three draws and one Burnley victory.

Premier League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Aston Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Burnley have 1 win, 7 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 3.2 shots on goal and 9.3 attempts. The Clarets have averaged 42.2% possession, 385.5 passes and 4.0 corners per game, with the opposition getting 2.2 goals from 5.4 shots on goal, 17.5 attempts and 6.7 corners.

Zian Flemming is the top scorer with 4 goals, Jaidon Anthony has 2, with Loum Tchaouna and Hannibal Mejbri on 1. Leading assistor is Hannibal Mejbri with 2, while goalkeeper Martin Dubravka has one clean sheet.

Villa have won 3, lost 5 and drawn 2, with an average of 1.2 goals from 3.7 shots on goal and 12.8 attempts. There’s been an average of 54.1% possession, 454.9 passes, 5.1 corners taken and 4.6 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.7 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 12.0 attempts.

Ollie Watkins has landed 3 goals, Tammy Abraham 2, with Emiliano Buendia and two others scoring 1. Matty Cash, Lucas Digne and John McGinn have all made 1 assists in the last 10 games, while Emiliano Martinez has 2 clean sheets.

Confirmed Lineups

Burnley confirmed lineup (4-3-3): Max Weiss (GK), Kyle Walker, Axel Tuanzebe, Maxime Esteve, Lucas Pires, Hannibal Mejbri, Florentino, Lesley Ugochukwu, Loum Tchaouna, Zian Flemming, Jaidon Anthony.

Aston Villa confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martinez (GK), Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Victor Nilsson Lindeloef, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, Ross Barkley, Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins.

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips

Prepare for Burnley vs Aston Villa with our expert betting guide featuring a trusted match prediction, likely scoreline, top corners advice, key player props and a well-crafted bet builder.

Match Prediction

There’s a case for siding with Burnley +1 at odds of -116 for this Premier League match. This Asian Handicap bet looks really attractive based on the latest stats and we’re happy with the line and price for the home team.

Our team of experts monitor the current Premier League injuries and suspensions. When integrated with the latest form, this helps us secure the value odds. Our data-led approach backed up by key stats always proves useful.

Key Burnley vs Aston Villa league stats:

• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 5 consecutive games on the road.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 19 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 7 of their last 9 games against Burnley.

If you go by the top bookies, there’s a 53.8% likelihood of our pick winning. However, we think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you want to try and leverage a large potential pay out from your stake, a Bet Builder is a potential way forward. Bet Burnley to cover the line along with other picks.

Before betting, make sure to browse our bonus guide packed with the best betting promo codes, free bets, and sign-up offers.

Our Match Prediction

Burnley Asian Hcp +1 @ -116 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 8, 15:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Burnley 1 - 1 Aston Villa

There are odds of +600 that the two teams play out a 1-1 scoreline. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Zian Flemming Over 3.5 Shots +132

Zian Flemming (Burnley) has covered the 3.5 shots total in three of his past five Premier League home matches. We’re anticipating that he is able to perform well and cover the Player Shots line, with odds of +132 currently available.

Latest Zian Flemming Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+210

First

+550

Shots

Over 2.5

-154

Under 2.5

-

---

Jaidon Anthony to Score +430

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) has scored two goals in his past nine Premier League home games. When it comes to him scoring, we think that the +430 available is attractive when betting on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Jaidon Anthony Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+450

First

+1200

Shots

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Under 10.5 Corners -149

There has been four straight Aston Villa matches where the 10.5 Total Corners line has not been covered, while it has been an average of 9.80 corners in the previous five Burnley games. The Total Corners line looks too high and we’re happy to go under this number at odds of -149.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Burnley

Total

10.70 4.00 6.70

Home

10.10 4.80 5.30

Away

8.70 3.00 5.70

Aston Villa

Total

9.70 5.10 4.60

Home

10.40 5.90 4.50

Away

9.50 4.60 4.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-130

Under 9.5

-109

Burnley Corners

Over 3.5

-167

Under 3.5

+116

Aston Villa Corners

Over 5.5

-103

Under 5.5

-137

Most Corners

1

+160

X

+650

2

-159

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Burnley vs Aston Villa Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Aston Villa are available at -167 to come away with a triumph in this Premier League clash, meaning a 63% likelihood of winning according to the published betting odds. Burnley are the underdogs at +460 which implies a lesser percentage prospect of winning.

There’s a Half-Time Result market should you wish to predict the outcome at the break. Burnley are +420 here and the draw is +133, with Villa on offer at +116.

Over and Under 2.5 Goals backers are able to get odds which are similar for the Total Goals market. Both Teams to Score is a two-way market and, in terms of price, there’s not much to split Yes and No.

You can find hundreds of markets for every Premier League match, with the top betting apps creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and In-Play selections before placing your football bets.

Full-Time Result

1

+460

X

+310

2

-167

Half-Time Result

1

+420

X

+133

2

+116

Double Chance

1X

+128

12

-435

X2

-714

Draw No Bet

1

+275

2

-455

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +1

-128

2 Hcp -1

+104

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-102

Over 2.5

-125

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-125

No

-108

Ollie Watkins is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +330. If you want to back him to score the last goal, you can get similar odds.

Ollie Watkins (Villa)

First

+330

Anytime

+115

Tammy Abraham (Villa)

First

+400

Anytime

+150

Morgan Rogers (Villa)

First

+500

Anytime

+190

Zian Flemming (Burnley)

First

+550

Anytime

+210

Emiliano Buendía (Villa)

First

+750

Anytime

+280

Ross Barkley (Villa)

First

+800

Anytime

+320

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Villa)

First

+1000

Anytime

+370

Ashley Barnes (Burnley)

First

+1100

Anytime

+400

Jadon Sancho (Villa)

First

+1100

Anytime

+400

Armando Broja (Burnley)

First

+1100

Anytime

+400

Lyle Foster (Burnley)

First

+1100

Anytime

+420

John McGinn (Villa)

First

+1150

Anytime

+450

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley)

First

+1200

Anytime

+450

Youri Tielemans (Villa)

First

+1200

Anytime

+475

Douglas Luiz (Villa)

First

+1300

Anytime

+525

Marcus Edwards (Burnley)

First

+1400

Anytime

+550

Loum Tchaouna (Burnley)

First

+1400

Anytime

+600

Matty Cash (Villa)

First

+1600

Anytime

+600

Jacob Bruun Larsen (Burnley)

First

+1500

Anytime

+650

Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley)

First

+1600

Anytime

+650

Ian Maatsen (Villa)

First

+1600

Anytime

+650

Amadou Onana (Villa)

First

+1800

Anytime

+700

Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley)

First

+2000

Anytime

+750

Lucas Digne (Villa)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Andrés García (Villa)

First

+2000

Anytime

+850

Victor Lindelöf (Villa)

First

+2200

Anytime

+850

Lamare Bogarde (Villa)

First

+2200

Anytime

+850

Tyrone Mings (Villa)

First

+2200

Anytime

+850

Ezri Konsa (Villa)

First

+2200

Anytime

+850

Pau Torres (Villa)

First

+2200

Anytime

+850

Ollie Watkins (Villa)

Over 3.5

+104

Under 3.5

-

Morgan Rogers (Villa)

Over 2.5

-139

Under 2.5

-

Zian Flemming (Burnley)

Over 2.5

-154

Under 2.5

-

Tammy Abraham (Villa)

Over 2.5

-128

Under 2.5

-

John McGinn (Villa)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Jacob Bruun Larsen (Burnley)

Over 1.5

+118

Under 1.5

-

Loum Tchaouna (Burnley)

Over 1.5

+148

Under 1.5

-

Marcus Edwards (Burnley)

Over 1.5

+108

Under 1.5

-

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-156

Under 1.5

-

Lyle Foster (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-112

Under 1.5

-

Armando Broja (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-135

Under 1.5

-

Jadon Sancho (Villa)

Over 1.5

+138

Under 1.5

-

Ashley Barnes (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-122

Under 1.5

-

Ross Barkley (Villa)

Over 1.5

-147

Under 1.5

-

Emiliano Buendía (Villa)

Over 1.5

-167

Under 1.5

-

Youri Tielemans (Villa)

Over 0.5

-270

Under 0.5

-

Douglas Luiz (Villa)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

-

Matty Cash (Villa)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

Ian Maatsen (Villa)

Over 0.5

-152

Under 0.5

-

Amadou Onana (Villa)

Over 0.5

-116

Under 0.5

-

Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley)

Over 0.5

-164

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Premier League matches only
Burnley have not won at Turf Moor in the past seven matches. The Clarets have managed six losses, three draws and one victory in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

Aston Villa have failed to win in their last five matches on their travels. The Villans have clocked up four losses, three wins and three draws in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.10 goals per match and conceding 1.50.

Villa beat Burnley 3-1 when the teams last met at Turf Moor. Villa have landed victory in three of the previous 4 H2H games at Turf Moor, with Burnley winning once.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Burnley Home Stats		1-3-6	3.30	1.40	1.90	6	4	6	4
Aston Villa Away Stats		3-3-4	2.60	1.10	1.50	4	6	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Burnley vs Aston Villa Lineups & Team News

Don’t miss the latest Burnley vs Villa team news before you bet. Get the predicted and confirmed Premier League lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

Burnley Team Page Aston Villa Team Page

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