Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 10 May 2026

Premier League Betting Preview: Burnley vs Aston Villa

Relegated Burnley square off against fifth-placed Aston Villa at Turf Moor, with kick-off set for 09:00 on Sunday 10 May.

In order for our Burnley +1 bet to land at odds of -116, we need the hosts to win or draw against Aston Villa. However, a defeat by one goal would be enough to get our Asian Handicap stake returned.

With Villa having had a very busy schedule of late and sitting six points clear of Bournemouth in the race for the final Champions League spot, we think the Clarets can put up a strong fight here.

Burnley lost on the road in their last game, making it five straight defeats. Leeds United won 3-1 at Elland Road. Mike Jackson's men had 52% of possession and three shots on target, while Loum Tchaouna bagged the goal.

Aston Villa have been defeated in back-to-back Premier League outings. In a recent home game at Villa Park, they were turned over 2-1 by Tottenham. The Villans recorded one shot on goal and had 45% possession, while Emiliano Buendia found the net.

Three days ago, Villa beat Nottingham Forest 4-0 at home in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final, advancing to the final with a 4-1 aggregate victory.

Head-to-Head Statistics

It’s been three straight wins for Villa when playing Burnley. Their last clash was at Villa Park, with Villa claiming a 2-1 home victory. The past 9 H2H meetings have resulted in five Villa wins, three draws and one Burnley victory.

Premier League		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
5	Aston Villa	35	17	7	11	48	44	4	48:44	58
19	Burnley	35	4	8	23	35	71	-36	35:71	20

View Full Table

Burnley have 1 win, 7 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.0 goals from 3.2 shots on goal and 9.3 attempts. The Clarets have averaged 42.2% possession, 385.5 passes and 4.0 corners per game, with the opposition getting 2.2 goals from 5.4 shots on goal, 17.5 attempts and 6.7 corners.

Zian Flemming is the top scorer with 4 goals, Jaidon Anthony has 2, with Loum Tchaouna and Hannibal Mejbri on 1. Leading assistor is Hannibal Mejbri with 2, while goalkeeper Martin Dubravka has one clean sheet.

Villa have won 3, lost 5 and drawn 2, with an average of 1.2 goals from 3.7 shots on goal and 12.8 attempts. There’s been an average of 54.1% possession, 454.9 passes, 5.1 corners taken and 4.6 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.7 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 12.0 attempts.

Ollie Watkins has landed 3 goals, Tammy Abraham 2, with Emiliano Buendia and two others scoring 1. Matty Cash, Lucas Digne and John McGinn have all made 1 assists in the last 10 games, while Emiliano Martinez has 2 clean sheets.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Burnley predicted lineup (3-2-4-1): Martin Dubravka (GK), Hjalmar Ekdal, Maxime Esteve, Bashir Humphreys, Kyle Walker, Quilindschy Hartman, Loum Tchaouna, Josh Laurent, James Ward-Prowse, Jaidon Anthony, Zian Flemming.

Aston Villa predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Emiliano Martinez (GK), Matty Cash, Victor Nilsson Lindeloef, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Lamare Bogarde, Youri Tielemans, Jadon Sancho, Ross Barkley, Morgan Rogers, Tammy Abraham.

Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips

Prepare for Burnley vs Aston Villa with our expert betting guide featuring a trusted match prediction, likely scoreline, top corners advice, key player props and a well-crafted bet builder.

Match Prediction

There’s a case for siding with Burnley +1 at odds of -116 for this Premier League match. This Asian Handicap bet looks really attractive based on the latest stats and we’re happy with the line and price for the home team.

Our team of experts monitor the current Premier League injuries and suspensions. When integrated with the latest form, this helps us secure the value odds. Our data-led approach backed up by key stats always proves useful.

Key Burnley vs Aston Villa league stats:

• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 5 consecutive games on the road.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 19 of their last 20 games on the road.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The -1 line hasn’t been covered by Villa in 7 of their last 9 games against Burnley.

If you go by the top bookies, there’s a 53.8% likelihood of our pick winning. However, we think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. That means we’re regarding it as a value bet.

If you want to try and leverage a large potential pay out from your stake, a Bet Builder is a potential way forward. Bet Burnley to cover the line along with other picks.

Before betting, make sure to browse our bonus guide packed with the best betting promo codes, free bets, and sign-up offers.

Our Match Prediction

Burnley Asian Hcp +1 @ -116 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 8, 15:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Burnley 1 - 1 Aston Villa

There are odds of +600 that the two teams play out a 1-1 scoreline. The correct score option is popular due to the potential return that can be achieved.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Zian Flemming Over 3.5 Shots +132

Zian Flemming (Burnley) has covered the 3.5 shots total in three of his past five Premier League home matches. We’re anticipating that he is able to perform well and cover the Player Shots line, with odds of +132 currently available.

Latest Zian Flemming Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+200

First

+550

Shots

Over 3.5

+132

Under 3.5

-

---

Jaidon Anthony to Score +430

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley) has scored two goals in his past nine Premier League home games. When it comes to him scoring, we think that the +430 available is attractive when betting on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Jaidon Anthony Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+430

First

+1200

Shots

Over 1.5

-179

Under 1.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Under 10.5 Corners -149

There has been four straight Aston Villa matches where the 10.5 Total Corners line has not been covered, while it has been an average of 9.80 corners in the previous five Burnley games. The Total Corners line looks too high and we’re happy to go under this number at odds of -149.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Burnley

Total

10.70 4.00 6.70

Home

10.10 4.80 5.30

Away

8.70 3.00 5.70

Aston Villa

Total

9.70 5.10 4.60

Home

10.40 5.90 4.50

Away

9.50 4.60 4.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-118

Under 9.5

-120

Burnley Corners

Over 3.5

-141

Under 3.5

-100

Aston Villa Corners

Over 5.5

-106

Under 5.5

-133

Most Corners

1

+185

X

+700

2

-185

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Burnley vs Aston Villa Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Aston Villa are available at -182 to come away with a triumph in this Premier League clash, meaning a 65% likelihood of winning according to the published betting odds. Burnley are the underdogs at +500 which implies a lesser percentage prospect of winning.

There’s a Half-Time Result market should you wish to predict the outcome at the break. Burnley are +420 here and the draw is +140, with Villa on offer at +108.

The odds suggest that Over 2.5 Goals is a strong probability in this exciting contest. If you are expecting both teams to score, there’s the chance to back Yes at -137 on the BTTS market.

You can find hundreds of markets for every Premier League match, with the top betting apps creating lots of different options. Check out the pre-game and In-Play selections before placing your football bets.

Full-Time Result

1

+500

X

+320

2

-182

Half-Time Result

1

+420

X

+140

2

+108

Double Chance

1X

+135

12

-455

X2

-769

Draw No Bet

1

+300

2

-526

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp +1

-116

2 Hcp -1

-106

Total Goals

Under 2.5

+112

Over 2.5

-143

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-137

No

+102

Ollie Watkins is favourite to be First Goalscorer at +360. If you want to back him to score the last goal, you can get similar odds.

Ollie Watkins (Villa)

First

+125

Anytime

+360

Tammy Abraham (Villa)

First

+140

Anytime

+390

Morgan Rogers (Villa)

First

+170

Anytime

+480

Zian Flemming (Burnley)

First

+200

Anytime

+550

Emiliano Buendía (Villa)

First

+250

Anytime

+700

Ross Barkley (Villa)

First

+310

Anytime

+850

Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha dos Santos (Villa)

First

+370

Anytime

+1000

Jadon Sancho (Villa)

First

+390

Anytime

+1000

Ashley Barnes (Burnley)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Armando Broja (Burnley)

First

+400

Anytime

+1100

Lyle Foster (Burnley)

First

+420

Anytime

+1150

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley)

First

+430

Anytime

+1200

John McGinn (Villa)

First

+430

Anytime

+1150

Youri Tielemans (Villa)

First

+450

Anytime

+1150

Marcus Edwards (Burnley)

First

+500

Anytime

+1300

Douglas Luiz (Villa)

First

+500

Anytime

+1400

Loum Tchaouna (Burnley)

First

+550

Anytime

+1500

Matty Cash (Villa)

First

+575

Anytime

+1600

Jacob Bruun Larsen (Burnley)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Ian Maatsen (Villa)

First

+600

Anytime

+1600

Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Amadou Onana (Villa)

First

+650

Anytime

+1800

Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley)

First

+750

Anytime

+2000

Victor Lindelöf (Villa)

First

+800

Anytime

+2200

Andrés García (Villa)

First

+850

Anytime

+2000

Ollie Watkins (Villa)

Over 3.5

-102

Under 3.5

-

Zian Flemming (Burnley)

Over 3.5

+132

Under 3.5

-

Morgan Rogers (Villa)

Over 2.5

-147

Under 2.5

-

Tammy Abraham (Villa)

Over 2.5

-133

Under 2.5

-

Lyle Foster (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-123

Under 1.5

-

Loum Tchaouna (Burnley)

Over 1.5

+133

Under 1.5

-

Marcus Edwards (Burnley)

Over 1.5

+102

Under 1.5

-

Jaidon Anthony (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-179

Under 1.5

-

John McGinn (Villa)

Over 1.5

+155

Under 1.5

-

Armando Broja (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-135

Under 1.5

-

Ashley Barnes (Burnley)

Over 1.5

-122

Under 1.5

-

Jadon Sancho (Villa)

Over 1.5

+138

Under 1.5

-

Ross Barkley (Villa)

Over 1.5

-143

Under 1.5

-

Emiliano Buendía (Villa)

Over 1.5

-179

Under 1.5

-

Youri Tielemans (Villa)

Over 0.5

-278

Under 0.5

-

Douglas Luiz (Villa)

Over 0.5

-208

Under 0.5

-

Matty Cash (Villa)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

Jacob Bruun Larsen (Burnley)

Over 0.5

-263

Under 0.5

-

Ian Maatsen (Villa)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-

Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley)

Over 0.5

-313

Under 0.5

-

Amadou Onana (Villa)

Over 0.5

-120

Under 0.5

-

Lesley Ugochukwu (Burnley)

Over 0.5

-172

Under 0.5

-

Burnley have not won at Turf Moor in the past seven matches. The Clarets have managed six losses, three draws and one victory in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90.

Aston Villa have failed to win in their last five matches on their travels. The Villans have clocked up four losses, three wins and three draws in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 1.10 goals per match and conceding 1.50.

Villa beat Burnley 3-1 when the teams last met at Turf Moor. Villa have landed victory in three of the previous 4 H2H games at Turf Moor, with Burnley winning once.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Burnley Home Stats		1-3-6	3.30	1.40	1.90	6	4	6	4
Aston Villa Away Stats		3-3-4	2.60	1.10	1.50	4	6	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Burnley vs Aston Villa Lineups & Team News

Don’t miss the latest Burnley vs Villa team news before you bet. Get the predicted and confirmed Premier League lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.

Burnley Team Page Aston Villa Team Page

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