Burnley vs Derby Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 19 Sep 2026
Burnley vs Derby Predictions
After careful consideration, we’re going to place a BTTS Yes bet on the basis that -135 looks like great value. We anticipate that Burnley and Derby can both find the net here.
Continue reading for our complete Burnley vs Derby betting analysis, delivering an in-depth look at our main match prediction, as well as our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.
Burnley vs Derby Preview
Burnley meet Derby at Turf Moor, with kick-off set for 10:00 on Saturday 19 September.
Burnley were beaten in their last game. Away from home at Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea City claimed a 3-1 win. Nicky Hayen's team had 47% possession and recorded two shots on target, with Largie Ramazani bagging the goal.
Derby County suffered a third straight defeat when losing 2-1 in their previous game. This was at home to Birmingham City at Pride Park. The East Midlands outfit managed four shots on goal and enjoyed 59% possession, with Bobby Clark on the scoresheet.
H2H: Burnley Landed 2-1 Victory in Previous Head-to-Head
Burnley are unbeaten when it comes to the past three meetings against Derby. In the last clash, Burnley secured a 2-1 EFL Cup win when hosting at Turf Moor. The past 3 H2H matches have involved two draws and one Burnley win.
| Championship | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 |  Burnley |
13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 |  Derby |
13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 11:25 | 7 |
5 losses and 5 draws, averaging 1.1 goals from 13.3 attempts and 3.7 shots on goal. Burnley have had 48.6% possession and 4.5 corners per match. On average, they have conceded 2.0 goals from 13.2 attempts and 4.2 shots on goal, while their opponents have earned 4.5 corners.
Top goalscorer Zian Flemming has found the net 4 times, with Largie Ramazani, Zeki Amdouni, Aaron Ramsey and Ugo Raghouber scoring 1 each. Igor Julio, Largie Ramazani and Reo Hatate have racked up the most assists with 1 each.
Derby have won 2, lost 7 and drawn 1, with an average of 1.1 goals from 10.9 attempts and 3.8 shots on goal. John Eustace's side average 48.5% possession, 6.1 corners awarded and 5.8 corners against them, while conceding 1.9 goals from 15.2 attempts and 6.7 shots on goal.
Sammie Szmodics has landed 3 goals, Bobby Clark 2, with Lars-Joergen Salvesen and two others scoring 1. Bobby Clark and Carlton Morris have both managed 2 assists in the previous 10 games.
Confirmed Lineups
Burnley confirmed lineup (4-4-2): Gregoire Coudert (GK), Connor Roberts, Anel Ahmedhodzic, Igor Julio, Lucas Pires, Marcus Edwards, Josh Laurent, Max Alleyne, Reo Hatate, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Zeki Amdouni.
Derby confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Josh Vickers (GK), Joe Ward, Sondre Klingen Langaas, Dion Sanderson, Charlie Taylor, Alex Mowatt, David Ozoh, Ryan Hedges, Sammie Szmodics, Bobby Clark, Carlton Morris.
Main Match Prediction
We can’t pass up the chance to back BTTS Yes at -135, with both sides expected to find the net in this Championship match. The Both Teams to Score market provides a great angle for a wager.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):
The first port of call is to check out the Championship injury and suspension news for each side and then scroll through the form guide. We take this information and apply it to the latest available stats to come up with a verdict.
According to the top bookies, our pick has a 57.5% chance of landing a return. Our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 60-65%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.
If you are looking for more juice, BTTS Yes can be combined with Over 2.5 Goals. A wager on the Total Goals & Both Teams to Score market gives you two similar picks at slightly bigger odds.
Before you bet, see what free bets you can claim today. Our guide highlights the best welcome bonuses and offers available now.
Correct Score Prediction
1
-
1
Derby
We’re sweet on the prospect of a 1-1 draw which is available at odds of +480. Correct score betting can be rewarding and you can also get plenty of entertainment with this option.
Player Prop Picks
Mohammed Fuseini (Derby) is available to have one or more shots on goal at +132. When it comes to wagering Shots on Target, we think the betting odds really stand out for this pick.
Sammie Szmodics (Derby) has netted four goals in his past nine Championship games away from home. We believe this is the best of the player props, with a healthy +370 available when it comes to betting him to score at any time.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
In their past six matches, Burnley have not covered the 5.5 corners line, while the last three Derby games have involved them conceding under 5.5 corners. There’s everything to like about the Burnley Team Corners line which looks too big and we’d expect them to go under at -104.
Burnley
Derby
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
It’s great fun to place a bet builder and our picks are both teams to score, Derby with the +0.75 Asian Handicap as well as Mohammed Fuseini (Derby) to end up with one or more shots on target.
It’s now possible to place a bet builder on each individual football game. You can go through the available markets and cherry-pick the outcomes that you think will happen. The odds for each selection are then combined together.
Burnley vs Derby Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
For this Championship clash, Burnley are the -127 favourites to triumph according to the latest Full-Time Result betting odds. This reflects that they have a 56% chance of winning. Derby County are the +330 underdogs, while the draw can also be backed as an alternative.
Burnley can be backed at -130 on the Asian Handicap -0.5 if you think they’ll win. Alternatively, opponents Derby +0.5 are -102 and that means you get a return if they triumph or the draw happens.
If you want to back how many goals will be scored, you can get a similar price on Under or Over 2.5 Goals. If you’re anticipating that both teams will score, the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -133.
There’s lots to like about the top football betting sites and that includes the hundreds of markets available for each Championship match. You are spoilt for choice when it comes to available options.
Those interested in favourite Jamie Vardy to find the net first can get +450, while the Anytime Goalscorer angle could hold more appeal and this is +170.
Stats: Last 10 League matches only.
Burnley haven’t tasted victory in ten consecutive matches at Turf Moor. Nicky Hayen's team have managed five draws and five losses in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70.
Derby have seven losses and three victories in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90.
The past meeting at Turf Moor saw Burnley defeat Derby 2-1.
| Last 10 League Games | W-D-L | G | GF | GA | O2.5 | U2.5 | B-Y | B-No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Home Stats |
0-5-5 | 2.70 | 1.00 | 1.70 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | |
| Derby Away Stats |
3-0-7 | 3.20 | 1.30 | 1.90 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
- W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
- G = Avg. Goals
- GF = Avg. Goals For
- GA = Avg. Goals Against
- O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
- U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
- B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
- B-No = Matches BTTS No
Burnley League Stats
Derby League Stats
- 5 defeats and 5 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 5 defeats and 5 draws in the previous 10 home matches
- 2 wins, 7 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 3 wins and 7 defeats in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 3.10 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.70 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 9 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.20 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 8 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 4.50 corners awarded and 4.50 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 5.00 corners awarded and 6.10 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 9.00 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 11.10 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 4 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 3 and least corners in 5 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 5.80 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 3.30 corners awarded and 7.00 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 11.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 10.30 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 2 and least corners in 8 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 48.60% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 45.80% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 3 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 3 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 48.50% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 44.40% possession in the last 10 away matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 1 of the last 10 away matches
- Top Scorers for Burnley this season are Zian Flemming (2), Aaron Ramsey (1), Josh Laurent (1)
- Top Assistors for Burnley this season are Igor Julio (1), Jacob Bruun Larsen (1), Largie Ramazani (1)
Burnley vs Derby Lineups & Team News
Always review the Burnley vs Derby team news before locking in your bets. We’ll keep you posted with predicted and confirmed lineups for the Championship and all current injury news.
Burnley Confirmed Lineup 4-4-2
Derby Confirmed Lineup 4-2-3-1
Burnley Confirmed Lineup 4-4-2
Derby Confirmed Lineup 4-2-3-1
Burnley Substitutes
- 1Max Weiss
- 2Kyle Walker
- 8Ugo Raghouber
- 9Jamie Vardy
- 17Andreas Hountondji
- 18Hjalmar Ekdal
- 19Largie Ramazani
- 22Oliver Sonne
- 27Armando Broja
Derby Substitutes
- 10Rhian Brewster
- 12Richard O'Donnell
- 15L. Salvesen
- 16Mohammed Fuseini
- 22Max Johnston
- 27Lewis Travis
- 29Oscar Fraulo
- 33C. Blackett-Taylor
- 42Raymond Offor
Previous Burnley Lineups
Previous Derby Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
Burnley Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Nicky Hayen
Derby Player Stats & Squad
Championship Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 30:17 | 28 |
| 2 | Swansea | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20:13 | 26 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23:16 | 24 |
| 4 | West Brom | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 19:14 | 24 |
| 5 | Southampton | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28:13 | 23 |
| 6 | Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23:13 | 23 |
| 7 | Stoke | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 20:16 | 23 |
| 8 | West Ham | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 33:18 | 22 |
| 9 | QPR | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 21:16 | 20 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17:15 | 19 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16:15 | 19 |
| 12 | Millwall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 23:21 | 18 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 18 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15:17 | 18 |
| 15 | Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 23:24 | 15 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14:23 | 15 |
| 17 | Cardiff | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15:19 | 14 |
| 19 | Bolton | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 18:26 | 14 |
| 20 | Charlton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11:21 | 14 |
| 21 | Watford | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17:25 | 9 |
| 23 | Derby | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11:25 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10:27 | 5 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 20:5 | 19 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17:9 | 17 |
| 3 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 14 |
| 5 | Stoke | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:6 | 13 |
| 6 | Cardiff | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13:6 | 12 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:7 | 12 |
| 8 | QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:5 | 11 |
| 9 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 10 | West Brom | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:7 | 11 |
| 12 | West Ham | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18:11 | 10 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14:7 | 10 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 10 |
| 15 | Watford | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 16 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13:12 | 9 |
| 17 | Charlton | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 8 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3:6 | 6 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9:15 | 6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8:10 | 5 |
| 22 | Lincoln | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:16 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:10 | 4 |
| 24 | Derby | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:10 | 2 |
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