Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Betting Preview: Casa Pia vs Rio Ave

Casa Pia host Rio Ave at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior, with kick-off set for 13:00 on Saturday 16 May.

We can’t resist the opportunity to back Under 2.5 when Casa Pia go up against Rio Ave. The Total Goals market provides the opportunity to take a price of -106 and we anticipate a return here.

Casa Pia have been handed two Primeira Liga home defeats in a row. In their last league outing, they beat Vitória de Guimarães on the road by a 1-0 scoreline at Estadio D. Afonso Henriques. Alvaro Pacheco's side enjoyed just 29% possession and had five shots on target, with a late strike from Gaizka Larrazabal proving the difference.

Rio Ave lost when last in action. In a home game at Estadio dos Arcos, they were turned over 4-1 by Sporting CP. The Big River enjoyed just 36% possession and had four shots on goal, with Diogo Bezerra on the scoresheet.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Rio Ave overcame Casa Pia at home when the teams last played. It was a 3-1 scoreline at Estadio dos Arcos. The past 7 H2H matches have witnessed three draws along with two wins each.

Primeira Liga		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
13	Rio Ave	33	8	11	14	34	56	-22	34:56	35
16	Casa Pia	33	6	11	16	30	56	-26	30:56	29

View Full Table

1 win, 5 losses and 4 draws, averaging 0.5 goals from 2.8 shots on goal and 8.6 attempts. Casa Pia have had 36.7% possession, 273.1 passes and 4.3 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.3 goals from 3.9 shots on goal and 11.8 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 6.1 corners.

Top scorer Cassiano has found the net 2 times, with Gaizka Larrazabal, Joao Marques and Rafael Brito getting 1 each. Joao Marques, Jeremy Livolant and Gaizka Larrazabal are tied for the most assists on 1, with goalie Patrick Sequeira managing 3 clean sheets.

Rio Ave have won 4, lost 3 and drawn 3, with an average of 1.1 goals from 4.6 shots on goal and 13.2 attempts. There’s been an average of 47.4% possession, 378.5 passes, 5.8 corners taken and 5.5 corners against, while they’ve conceded 1.2 goals from 4.0 shots on goal and 11.8 attempts.

Jalen Blesa has scored 5 goals, followed by Diogo Bezerra, Ole Pohlmann, Andreas-Richardos Ntoi and Tamas Nikitscher on 1. Dario Spikic has had 3 assists, with Ennio van der Gouw and Cezary Miszta notching 3 clean sheets between them in the last 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Casa Pia predicted lineup (3-4-3): Patrick Sequeira (GK), João Goulart, Domingos José Gabriel Bandeira Kaly, David Sousa, Kevin Prieto, Lawrence Ofori, Seba Pérez, Pedro Rosas, Gaizka Larrazabal, Dailon Rocha Livramento, Joao Marques.

Rio Ave predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Cezary Miszta (GK), Marios Vrousai, Joao Tome, Gustavo Mancha, Nelson Abbey, Tamás Nikitscher, Antonis Papakanellos, Diogo Bezerra, Jalen Blesa, Dario Spikic, Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro.

Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction & Betting Tips

This Casa Pia vs Rio Ave betting breakdown features a main match prediction, a correct score insight, expert player prop picks, corners analysis and a sharply constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Match Prediction

For those that agree with our view that this will be low-scoring, take the -106 when it comes to Under 2.5 Goals. We don’t think this Primeira Liga encounter will be a goalfest.

Our job is to consult the latest Primeira Liga team news in order to produce the best football predictions. Then we crack on with the job of analysing the stats that are going to be the most effective.

Key Casa Pia vs Rio Ave league stats:

• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 5 Casa Pia games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 7 of the last 10 Casa Pia games.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 11 of the last 18 Casa Pia games at home.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in 4 of the last 5 Rio Ave games on the road.
• The 2.5 line hasn’t been covered in the last 2 Rio Ave games on the road.

The top bookmakers are estimating that there is a 51.5% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Taking all factors into consideration, our tipsters think there’s a stronger chance of success and have a probability interval between 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.

If you’re hunting larger odds, there’s the opportunity to not only back the Under 2.5 Goals selection but also back a specific team to win. The Result & Total Goals market presents this opportunity.

Before you bet, take a look at our complete guide to the best free bets and new customer bonuses on offer now.

Our Match Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals @ -106 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 14, 19:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Casa Pia 1 - 0 Rio Ave

You can secure odds of +510 that Casa Pia are able to land a 1-0 victory. Correct score betting can provide plenty of fun and it’s a way of landing bigger odds.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Gaizka Larrazabal to Score +540

Gaizka Larrazabal (Casa Pia) has scored two goals in his past ten Primeira Liga home games. Based on the numbers, we are looking to bet the +540 for him to find the net on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Gaizka Larrazabal Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+540

First

+1200

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Rio Ave Over 3.5 Corners -147

Rio Ave have had over 3.5 corners in four consecutive games, while Casa Pia have had an average of 6.70 corners against them in their last 10 home matches. We recommend backing the -147 that Rio Ave are able to cover the line, with this Team Corners bet landing a handsome potential return.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Casa Pia

Total

10.40 4.30 6.10

Home

9.30 2.60 6.70

Away

11.30 4.60 6.70

Rio Ave

Total

11.30 5.80 5.50

Home

12.10 6.50 5.60

Away

10.20 3.70 6.50

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-147

Under 9.5

-100

Casa Pia Corners

Over 5.5

-130

Under 5.5

-110

Rio Ave Corners

Over 3.5

-147

Under 3.5

+102

Most Corners

1

-213

X

+700

2

+205

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

Casa Pia are forecasted to be the most likely winner in this Primeira Liga encounter. The -147 for them coming out on top suggests a 60% probability based on their latest betting odds. At +350, Rio Ave are regarded as having a lower probability of winning.

If you think Casa Pia can win by two or more goals against Rio Ave, consider them at -0.75 on the Asian Handicap at -122. You’ll even win with half your stake if they win by one goal, with the other half refunded.

Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest odds and that means three goals or more are anticipated. Both Teams to Score is one of the top markets and the BTTS Yes option can be wagered at -137.

The leading football betting sites have excellent coverage when it comes to all Primeira Liga games. That means hundreds of markets from which to choose and something to suit everyone.

Full-Time Result

1

-147

X

+280

2

+350

Half-Time Result

1

+118

X

+133

2

+370

Double Chance

1X

-625

12

-476

X2

+102

Draw No Bet

1

-357

2

+225

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.75

-122

2 Hcp +0.75

-119

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-106

Over 2.5

-133

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-137

No

-103

Cassiano Dias Moreira is the market leader to be First Goalscorer at +410 while there’s also the chance to back him to find the net at +175.

Cassiano Dias Moreira (Casa Pia)

First

+175

Anytime

+410

Jeremy Livolant (Casa Pia)

First

+175

Anytime

+410

Kelian Nsona (Casa Pia)

First

+188

Anytime

+450

Xander Severina (Casa Pia)

First

+188

Anytime

+450

Kevin Prieto (Casa Pia)

First

+195

Anytime

+450

Korede Osundina (Casa Pia)

First

+210

Anytime

+500

Dailon Rocha Livramento (Casa Pia)

First

+235

Anytime

+550

Claudio Mendes (Casa Pia)

First

+235

Anytime

+550

Kiki Silva (Casa Pia)

First

+260

Anytime

+600

Karem Zoabi (Rio Ave)

First

+320

Anytime

+750

Marc Gual (Rio Ave)

First

+325

Anytime

+800

João Marques (Casa Pia)

First

+330

Anytime

+750

Tiago Morais (Casa Pia)

First

+340

Anytime

+750

Rafael Alexandre de Sousa Gancho de Brito (Casa Pia)

First

+410

Anytime

+950

Tobias Medina (Rio Ave)

First

+420

Anytime

+950

Gaizka Larrazabal (Casa Pia)

First

+540

Anytime

+1200

Ole Pohlmann (Rio Ave)

First

+550

Anytime

+1300

Tamás Nikitscher (Rio Ave)

First

+575

Anytime

+1300

Iyad Mohamed (Casa Pia)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Abdu Conté (Casa Pia)

First

+650

Anytime

+1500

Lawrence Ofori (Casa Pia)

First

+700

Anytime

+1600

Kaique Rocha (Casa Pia)

First

+800

Anytime

+1800

Marious Vrousai (Rio Ave)

First

+800

Anytime

+1800

Brandon Aguilera (Rio Ave)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

André Geraldes (Casa Pia)

First

+850

Anytime

+1900

Casa Pia haven’t triumphed in five straight games at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior. Alvaro Pacheco's side have six draws, two wins and two losses in the last 10 home matches, recording an average of 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10.

Rio Ave have finished with five defeats, four wins and one draw in the past 10 away matches, netting an average of 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80.

Casa Pia overcame Rio Ave 2-1 when the sides last met at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Casa Pia Home Stats		2-6-2	2.20	1.10	1.10	3	7	6	4
Rio Ave Away Stats		4-1-5	2.70	0.90	1.80	6	4	3	7

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Lineups & Team News

Be prepared — check the Casa Pia vs Rio Ave team news before wagering. Stay informed with our predicted and confirmed Primeira Liga lineups and the latest injury reports.

Casa Pia Team Page Rio Ave Team Page

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