Derby vs Birmingham Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 12 Sep 2026
Derby vs Birmingham Predictions
We’ll go directly for the pick of Birmingham when it comes to the Full-Time Result market. We think they are capable of a comfortable win against Derby, with odds of +120 looking too good to pass up.
Read on for our full Derby vs Birmingham betting analysis, featuring the reasoning behind our main match prediction, alongside our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.
Derby vs Birmingham Preview
Derby welcome Birmingham to Pride Park, with kick-off set for 07:30 on Saturday 12 September.
Derby County were beaten 1-0 at Pride Park in their last league game. This defeat at home to West Bromwich Albion was their second straight Championship loss. John Eustace's men dominated possession with 67% of the ball and recorded three shots on target.
Birmingham City lost their previous game. On the road, they suffered a 2-1 defeat against Norwich City at Carrow Road. The West Midlands side were 49% in the possession stakes and managed three shots on goal, while Carlos Vicente found the net.
H2H: 1-0 Victory for Derby in Pair’s Previous Head-to-Head
Derby are unbeaten in the past three games against Birmingham. Their last encounter saw Derby make home advantage count at Pride Park, winning 1-0. The past 9 H2H matches have included four Derby victories, three draws and two Birmingham wins.
| Championship | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |  Birmingham |
6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 22 |  Derby |
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5:11 | 4 |
3 wins, 6 losses and 1 draw, averaging 1.1 goals from 3.6 shots on goal and 10.7 attempts. Derby have had 49.3% possession and 5.8 corners per match. On average, the opposition have scored 1.7 goals from 5.8 shots on goal and 14.4 attempts, while being awarded 5.7 corners.
Top goalscorer Sammie Szmodics has found the net 3 times, Jaydon Banel 2, with Lars-Joergen Salvesen and two other players on 1. Bobby Clark and Carlton Morris are tied for the most assists on 2.
Birmingham have won 3, lost 1 and drawn 6, with an average of 12.1 attempts, 4.2 shots on goal and 1.4 goals. Blues average 49.5% possession, 6.3 corners awarded and 3.6 corners against them, while 1.2 goals have been conceded from 3.8 shots on goal and 10.9 attempts.
Phil Neumann has scored 3, followed by Jay Stansfield and August Priske with 2 goals apiece. Patrick Roberts has managed 2 assists in the last 10 games.
Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Derby predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Jacob Widell Zetterström (GK), Dion Sanderson, Sondre Langås, Eiran Cashin, Charlie Taylor, David Ozoh, Alex Mowatt, Ryan Hedges, Bobby Clark, Mohammed Fuseini, Samuel Szmodics.
Birmingham predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): James Beadle (GK), Bright Osayi-Samuel, Phil Neumann, Christoph Klarer, Kristoffer Lund, Tomoki Iwata, Seung-ho Paik, Carlos Vicente, Jay Stansfield, Liam Millar, August Priske.
Main Match Prediction
Birmingham are available at +120 to land a win and we think this price looks far too big. We’re anticipating that the visitors will claim a Championship victory and some nice dividends can be landed.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):
We only create the football betting tips after consulting the latest Championship team news along with the form of both sides. There are also stats that can be mined to good effect to come up with predictions.
If you go by the top bookies, there’s a 45.5% likelihood of our pick winning. In the opinion of our tipsters, there’s actually a probability of success between 50-55%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
If you think the price for Birmingham to win is too short, then consider boosting your odds by pairing this selection with both teams to score on the Result & BTTS market.
Considering placing a bet? Explore today’s best welcome bonuses and sign-up offers in our full guide before you get started.
Correct Score Prediction
0
-
1
Birmingham
A potentially entertaining bet is going for Birmingham to win by a 1-0 scoreline. At odds of +550, there’s the chance to get a handsome return should this wager win.
Player Prop Picks
Jay Stansfield (Birmingham) is available at -110 to record one or more shots on goal. Those wanting to back him should certainly look at the Shots on Target betting odds available.
Carlos Vicente (Birmingham) has registered three goals in his past ten Championship away matches. Considering the numbers, we think that odds of +350 offer plenty of appeal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
Derby have had over 4.5 corners in eight consecutive home games. We’re expecting history to repeat itself and for the Derby Team Corners line to get covered at -120.
Derby
Birmingham
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
Our same-game multi is packed with these picks: Birmingham to come out on top, no more than two goals to be scored merged with Jay Stansfield (Birmingham) to record one or more shots on target.
The bet builder option allows you to combine different outcomes within the same football game. Many bettors like to create a personalised bet which reflects their predictions for how a game is going to play out.
Derby vs Birmingham Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Birmingham City are forecasted to be the most likely winner in this Championship encounter. The +120 for them coming out on top suggests a 45% probability based on their latest betting odds. The market suggests that Derby County are least likely to win at +220.
If you think Birmingham can overcome Derby, then there’s an Asian Handicap option where the former are -114 with a -0.25 deficit. There’s half your money back in the event of a draw.
For the Total Goals market, Under 2.5 is the shortest price for this interesting contest. An alternative angle is a Both Teams to Score bet and Yes has been chalked up at -132.
If you’re betting on Championship games, we recommend heading to the best football betting sites and scanning through the hundreds of markets. There’s a chance to bet pre-match and In-Play.
Those interested in Carlton Morris to find the net anytime can get +180, with the favourite on offer to score the first goal at odds of +450.
Stats: Championship matches only
Derby have not won at Pride Park in the past four matches. John Eustace's men have collected six victories, three losses and one draw in the last 10 home games, recording an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 1.00.
Birmingham have five losses, three draws and two victories in the last 10 away matches, recording an average of 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30.
Derby beat Birmingham 1-0 when they last met at Pride Park. The past 4 H2H games at Pride Park have involved two Derby wins, one Birmingham victory and one draw.
| Last 10 League Games | W-D-L | G | GF | GA | O2.5 | U2.5 | B-Y | B-No | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Home Stats |
6-1-3 | 2.40 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | |
| Birmingham Away Stats |
2-3-5 | 2.10 | 0.80 | 1.30 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | |
- W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
- G = Avg. Goals
- GF = Avg. Goals For
- GA = Avg. Goals Against
- O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
- U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
- B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
- B-No = Matches BTTS No
- Championship: 21/03 2026 Derby 1 Birmingham 0
- Championship: 26/12 2025 Birmingham 1 Derby 1
- Championship: 30/01 2022 Derby 2 Birmingham 2
- Championship: 10/09 2021 Birmingham 2 Derby 0
- Championship: 24/04 2021 Derby 1 Birmingham 2
- Championship: 29/12 2020 Birmingham 0 Derby 4
- Championship: 22/07 2020 Birmingham 1 Derby 3
- Championship: 28/09 2019 Derby 3 Birmingham 2
- Championship: 19/04 2019 Birmingham 2 Derby 2
Derby League Stats
Birmingham League Stats
- 3 wins, 6 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches
- 3 wins, 1 defeat and 6 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 2 wins, 5 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 2.80 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.40 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.10 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 9 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 5.80 corners awarded and 5.70 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 3.50 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 11.50 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 9.60 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 2 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 6.30 corners awarded and 3.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 5.40 corners awarded and 4.40 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 9.90 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 9.80 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 1 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 49.30% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 50.50% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 6 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 49.50% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 48.50% possession in the last 10 away matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 4 of the last 10 away matches
- Top Scorers for Derby this season are Sammie Szmodics (2), Bobby Clark (1), Carlton Morris (1)
- Top Assistors for Derby this season are Bobby Clark (2), Carlton Morris (1), Oscar Fraulo (1)
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Derby vs Birmingham Lineups & Team News
Stay informed and review the Derby vs Birmingham team news before placing your bets. We’ll update you with predicted and confirmed Championship lineups plus current injury reports.
Derby Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Birmingham Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Derby Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Birmingham Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Previous Derby Lineups
Previous Birmingham Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
Derby Player Stats & Squad
Manager: John Eustace
Birmingham Player Stats & Squad
Championship Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 13 |
| 2 | West Ham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | 11 |
| 3 | Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 4 | QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:4 | 11 |
| 5 | Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 7 | Bristol City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 8 | Millwall | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 9 | Norwich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10:9 | 9 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 11 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 8 |
| 12 | Watford | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | 8 |
| 13 | Southampton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 16 | Stoke | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:10 | 7 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:8 | 6 |
| 18 | Blackburn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 5 |
| 19 | Lincoln | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 20 | Cardiff | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 21 | Bolton | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
| 24 | Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6:12 | 3 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11:3 | 9 |
| 2 | West Brom | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Watford | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 4 | Charlton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 7 |
| 5 | West Ham | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 6 | Millwall | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 7 | Stoke | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 8 | Norwich | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 9 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 10 | Swansea | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:0 | 5 |
| 11 | Wolverhampton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 4 |
| 12 | QPR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 14 | Birmingham | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 17 | Bolton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 18 | Bristol City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 20 | Preston | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 21 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 22 | Wrexham | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 23 | Lincoln | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 2 |
| 24 | Derby | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:6 | 1 |
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