Derby vs Stoke Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 17 Oct 2026

Derby vs Stoke Predictions

Main Match Prediction

Stoke Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -156

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If you agree with our view that Stoke can perform well against Derby, then you can bet them with a +0.25 goal start at -156. This means our Asian Handicap stake is divided equally between 0 and +0.5.

Continue below for our full Derby vs Stoke betting breakdown, where you can read the complete analysis of our main match prediction, as well as our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.

Derby vs Stoke Preview

Derby host Stoke at Pride Park, with kick-off set for 10:00 on Saturday 17 October.

Derby County were defeated in their last game. On the road, they suffered a 4-1 loss against Queens Park Rangers at Loftus Road. The East Midlands outfit enjoyed 52% possession and six shots on target, with Lars-Joergen Salvesen being the goalscorer.

Stoke City have claimed back-to-back Championship away victories. In the previous league game, they suffered a 3-2 home loss against Middlesbrough at bet365 Stadium. The Potters had just 35% possession and totalled one shot on goal, while Neto Borges (own goal) and Robert Bozenik found the net.

H2H: Derby Won 2-0 When Teams Last Met

The scoreline was 2-0 in favour of home side Derby when they last played Stoke, with the clash taking place at Pride Park. In the previous 10 H2H matches, we’ve seen four Derby victories, three Stoke wins and three draws.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
8	Stoke	10	5	1	4	17	16	1	17:16	16
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	9	19	-10	9:19	6

View Full Table

1 win, 6 losses and 3 draws, averaging 0.9 goals from 3.8 shots on goal and 11.1 attempts. Derby have had 49.0% possession and 5.4 corners per game. On average, they have conceded 1.9 goals from 5.3 shots on goal and 13.3 attempts, while their opponents have been awarded 5.4 corners.

Sammie Szmodics leads the way with 3 goals, with Lars-Joergen Salvesen and Bobby Clark scoring 2 each. Bobby Clark has recorded the most assists with 2.

Stoke have 5 victories, 4 defeats and 1 draw, with an average of 11.2 attempts, 3.8 shots on goal and 1.7 goals. Mark Robins' team average 44.1% possession, 4.4 corners awarded and 5.0 corners against them, while 1.6 goals have been conceded from 4.9 shots on goal and 15.6 attempts.

Ethan Galbraith is top of the team’s scoring charts with 3, while Jack McGlynn, Sam Gallagher, Eric Bocat and Justin Devenny have 2. Eric Bocat and Ethan Galbraith have both managed 2 assists in the previous 10 games.

Predicted & Confirmed Lineups

Derby predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Josh Vickers (GK), Joe Ward, Ryan Nyambe, Dion Sanderson, Ryan Hedges, Alex Mowatt, David Ozoh, Mohammed Fuseini, Bobby Clark, Samuel Szmodics, Carlton Morris.

Stoke predicted lineup (3-4-3): Viktor Johansson (GK), Benjamin Johnson, Ben Wilmot, Luke Graham, Junior Tchamadeu, Djibril Soumaré, Ethan Galbraith, Eric Junior Bocat, Jack McGlynn, Lamine Cissé, Joon-ho Bae.

Main Match Prediction

Wager on Stoke +0.25 on the Asian Handicap at -156 for this Championship game. We’re keen on their prospects of outperforming their match winner price and this wager looks like good value.

Key stats supporting our main match prediction (league matches):

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Stoke in 4 of their last 5 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Stoke in 6 of their last 10 games.
• The +0.25 line has been covered by Stoke in 3 consecutive games on the road.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Derby in 6 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Derby in 9 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Derby in 14 of their last 20 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Derby in 6 of their last 10 games against Stoke.

Team news plays a valuable role and our football experts are always monitoring the players who have an injury concern. We’ve also got a handle on the form guide, with plenty of Championship data provided which puts you in the picture in terms of stats.

According to the top bookmakers, our pick has a 61% chance of landing a return. In our opinion, there’s actually a probability of success between 65-70%. The bet can be recommended for this precise reason.

There are plenty of different options to Asian Handicap and that includes the Winning Margin market. Choose whether a team will achieve a close win or something bigger.

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Stoke Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -156 Watch Live Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (Oct 15, 16:30). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Derby 0 - 1 Stoke

You can secure odds of +600 that Stoke are able to land a 1-0 victory. Correct score betting can provide plenty of fun and it’s a way of landing bigger odds.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Mohammed Fuseini Over 0.5 Shots On Target -108

Mohammed Fuseini (Derby) can be backed at -108 to finish with one or more shots on goal. Those wanting to back him should certainly look at the Shots on Target betting odds available.

Latest Mohammed Fuseini Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+330

First

+850

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

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Ethan Galbraith to Score +480

Ethan Galbraith (Stoke) has netted three goals in his past ten Championship matches. When it comes to him scoring, we think that the +480 available is attractive when betting on the Anytime Goalscorer market.

Latest Ethan Galbraith Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+480

First

+1200

Shots On Target

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Over 10.5 Corners -111

All of the past three Stoke away games have seen the 10.5 Total Corners line covered, with an average of 12.40 corners in the last five Derby home matches. In our opinion, there is value when it comes to covering the Total Corners line, with odds of -111 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Derby

Total

10.80 5.40 5.40

Home

10.60 6.40 4.20

Away

9.80 3.60 6.20

Stoke

Total

9.40 4.40 5.00

Home

9.10 6.00 3.10

Away

11.70 5.60 6.10

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-111

Under 10.5

-130

Derby Corners

Over 5.5

-103

Under 5.5

-141

Stoke Corners

Over 4.5

-128

Under 4.5

-112

Most Corners

1

-125

X

+650

2

+125

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Derby vs Stoke Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The available 1x2 betting prices reveal that Derby County are +150 for a Championship win, with Stoke City being +160. The draw is on offer at +240 if you expect the game to finish level.

Derby and Stoke can be backed at -125 and -116 respectively on the Draw No Bet market. This is an ideal route for bettors who want to ensure they have money back if the scoreline ends level.

The Total Goals price implies that Under 2.5 is the most likely result in this contest. If both teams to score is something you think will happen, there’s an opportunity to wager Yes at -130 on the BTTS market.

There’s lots to like about the top football betting sites and that includes the hundreds of markets available for each Championship match. You are spoilt for choice when it comes to available options.

Full-Time Result

1

+150

X

+240

2

+160

Half-Time Result

1

+215

X

+112

2

+230

Double Chance

1X

-213

12

-345

X2

-200

Draw No Bet

1

-125

2

-116

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

+112

2 Hcp +0.25

-156

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-135

Over 2.5

-100

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-130

No

-105

Favourite Carlton Morris is priced at +400 to be the first player to find the net. There’s also the opportunity to back him to score any time at odds of +160.

Carlton Morris (Derby)

First

+400

Anytime

+160

Filip Bilbija (Derby)

First

+475

Anytime

+190

Sam Gallagher (Stoke)

First

+650

Anytime

+250

Million Manhoef (Stoke)

First

+650

Anytime

+260

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

First

+700

Anytime

+260

George Hirst (Stoke)

First

+700

Anytime

+280

Sammie Szmodics (Derby)

First

+750

Anytime

+300

Meister Henrik (Derby)

First

+750

Anytime

+300

Róbert Bozeník (Stoke)

First

+750

Anytime

+300

Mohammed Fuseini (Derby)

First

+850

Anytime

+330

Jack McGlynn (Stoke)

First

+900

Anytime

+350

Bobby Clark (Derby)

First

+1100

Anytime

+430

Corey Blackett-Taylor (Derby)

First

+1100

Anytime

+430

Ethan Galbraith (Stoke)

First

+1200

Anytime

+480

Justin Devenny (Stoke)

First

+1200

Anytime

+525

Bae Jun-Ho (Stoke)

First

+1300

Anytime

+525

Djibril Soumaré (Stoke)

First

+1300

Anytime

+525

Ryan Hedges (Derby)

First

+1500

Anytime

+575

Tomás Rigo (Stoke)

First

+1500

Anytime

+600

Luke Graham (Stoke)

First

+1700

Anytime

+700

Oscar Fraulo (Derby)

First

+1700

Anytime

+700

Joe Ward (Derby)

First

+1900

Anytime

+800

Alex Mowatt (Derby)

First

+2000

Anytime

+800

David Ozoh (Derby)

First

+2200

Anytime

+850

Ben Gibson (Stoke)

First

+2200

Anytime

+950

Filip Bilbija (Derby)

Over 0.5

-250

Under 0.5

-

Sam Gallagher (Stoke)

Over 0.5

-154

Under 0.5

-

Million Manhoef (Stoke)

Over 0.5

-149

Under 0.5

-

Rhian Brewster (Derby)

Over 0.5

-149

Under 0.5

-

Meister Henrik (Derby)

Over 0.5

-147

Under 0.5

-

George Hirst (Stoke)

Over 0.5

-133

Under 0.5

-

Sammie Szmodics (Derby)

Over 0.5

-128

Under 0.5

-

Róbert Bozeník (Stoke)

Over 0.5

-125

Under 0.5

-

Mohammed Fuseini (Derby)

Over 0.5

-108

Under 0.5

-

Jack McGlynn (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+105

Under 0.5

-

Justin Devenny (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+110

Under 0.5

-

Corey Blackett-Taylor (Derby)

Over 0.5

+115

Under 0.5

-

Bobby Clark (Derby)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-

Carlton Morris (Derby)

Over 1.5

+125

Under 1.5

-

Ethan Galbraith (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+150

Under 0.5

-

Bae Jun-Ho (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+165

Under 0.5

-

Djibril Soumaré (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+170

Under 0.5

-

Tomás Rigo (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+200

Under 0.5

-

Luke Graham (Stoke)

Over 0.5

+250

Under 0.5

-

Stats: Last 10 Championship matches only.
Derby have failed to win in their last six matches at Pride Park. The East Midlands outfit have recorded four victories, four defeats and two draws in the previous 10 home matches, netting an average of 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20.

Stoke haven’t lost any of their past three away games. The Potters have collected seven defeats, two wins and one draw in the previous 10 away matches, scoring an average of 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10.

Derby beat Stoke 2-0 when the teams last met at Pride Park. The 6 most recent H2H meetings at Pride Park have included three Derby victories along with three draws.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Derby Home Stats		4-2-4	2.30	1.10	1.20	5	5	5	5
Stoke Away Stats		2-1-7	2.90	0.80	2.10	5	5	6	4

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

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Derby vs Stoke Lineups & Team News

Get the latest team news for Derby vs Stoke before you bet. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed Championship lineups and the latest on injuries.

Derby County Team Page Stoke City Team Page

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