Fluminense vs São Paulo Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 16 May 2026

Série A Betting Preview: Fluminense vs São Paulo

Fluminense go head-to-head with São Paulo, with kick-off set for 18:00 on Saturday 16 May.

We think that Fluminense can get the better of São Paulo and we really like the odds of -109 on the Full-Time Result market. The price looks appealing and we’re confident this selection will be on the money.

Fluminense faced Vitória at home when last in Série A action. It was a 2-2 draw. Luis Zubeldia's men enjoyed 58% possession and had five shots on target, with John Kennedy and Kevin Serna each scoring one goal.

On Tuesday night, Fluminense won 2-1 in the Copa do Brasil when hosting Operário Ferroviário.

São Paulo suffered a defeat in their previous game. A 3-2 scoreline occurred against Corinthians, making it three away losses on the bounce. Tricolor Paulista were 50% in the possession stakes and had four shots on goal, while Luciano Neves and Matheuzinho (own goal) were on the scoresheet.

Last time out, São Paulo suffered a 3-1 Copa do Brasil defeat when visiting Juventude.

Head-to-Head Statistics

When these two teams last met, Fluminense claimed a home win. Beating São Paulo by a 6-0 scoreline. We’ve seen the previous 10 H2H matches involve five Fluminense victories. There have also been two draws and three São Paulo triumphs.

Série A		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
3	Fluminense	18	9	4	5	28	23	5	28:23	31
8	São Paulo	18	7	4	7	23	20	3	23:20	25

View Full Table

Fluminense have 5 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws, averaging 1.8 goals from 6.2 shots on goal and 12.5 attempts. The Big Flu have averaged 61.8% possession and 5.9 corners per match, conceding 1.6 goals and 3.6 corners from 4.7 shots on goal and 9.1 attempts.

John Kennedy is the top scorer with 5 goals, while Jefferson Savarino, Rodrigo Castillo and Hercules each have 3. Luciano Acosta, Guga and Jefferson Savarino have racked up the most assists with 2 each.

São Paulo have won 3, lost 5 and drawn 2, with an average of 3.7 shots on goal, 8.0 attempts and 1.3 goals. Roger Machado's team average 51.7% possession, 7.6 corners taken and 4.5 corners against them, while 1.4 goals have been conceded from 10.3 attempts and 4.6 shots on goal.

Ferreira has scored 4 goals, followed by Luciano Neves and Jonathan Calleri on 3. Wendell has had 3 assists in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Fluminense confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Fabio (GK), Guga, Ignacio, Juan Freytes, Guilherme Arana, Nonato, Hercules, Agustin Canobbio, Luciano Acosta, Jefferson Savarino, John Kennedy.

São Paulo confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Rafael (GK), Lucas Ramon, Matheus Doria, Sabino, Enzo Hernan Diaz, Damian Bobadilla, Danielzinho, Artur Guimaraes, Wendell, Cauly Oliveira Souza, Andre.

Fluminense vs São Paulo Prediction & Betting Tips

This Fluminense vs São Paulo betting breakdown features a main match prediction, a correct score insight, expert player prop picks, corners analysis and a sharply constructed bet builder to guide your wagers.

Match Prediction

Fluminense are priced at -109 to secure a victory and we think these odds look too big. We’re expecting the hosts to land a Série A win and a nice potential return could be on the cards.

Our football experts are keen to follow the latest form and understand any patterns that emerge. The same applies to injuries that could affect key players. Combined with the best Série A stats, there is plenty of information to make a verdict.

Key Fluminense vs São Paulo league stats:

• Fluminense have won 17 of their last 20 games at home.
• Fluminense have won 8 of their last 10 games at home.
• São Paulo have lost 4 of their last 5 games on the road.
• São Paulo have lost 6 of their last 10 games on the road.
• São Paulo have lost their last 3 games on the road.

The best football betting sites make it a 52.1% chance that our pick is settled as a winner. However, we think that the probability is close to 60% taking all factors into consideration. It is therefore regarded as a value bet.

If you think Fluminense are too short a price on the Full-Time Result market but feel confident about their chances, why not consider the Asian Handicap where you can get bigger odds.

Start betting with confidence. Our bonus guide highlights the most valuable free bets and sign-up offers today.

Our Match Prediction

Fluminense To Win @ -109 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 15, 00:27). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Fluminense 1 - 0 São Paulo

We’re predicting Fluminense to land a 1-0 victory and this is available at +480. The correct score betting option provides plenty of fun and entertainment.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Jefferson Savarino to Score +360

Jefferson Savarino (Fluminense) has scored three goals in his past five Série A matches. The Anytime Goalscorer odds look really appealing based on the stats and we’ll take a chance on him at odds of +360.

Latest Jefferson Savarino Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+290

First

+700

Shots

Over 2.5

-115

Under 2.5

-

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

São Paulo Over 3.5 Corners -154

The 3.5 corners line has been covered by São Paulo in eight consecutive matches. We think that the value can be found by wagering on Team Corners and you can secure -154 that São Paulo go over the line.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Fluminense

Total

9.50 5.90 3.60

Home

8.70 5.40 3.30

Away

10.20 4.60 5.60

São Paulo

Total

12.10 7.60 4.50

Home

11.60 7.00 4.60

Away

9.90 5.00 4.90

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 9.5

-125

Under 9.5

-112

Fluminense Corners

Over 5.5

-123

Under 5.5

-120

São Paulo Corners

Over 3.5

-137

Under 3.5

-108

Most Corners

1

-204

X

+700

2

+200

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Fluminense vs São Paulo Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

The bookies have Fluminense as -125 favourites for this Série A clash, with the Full-Time Result betting odds implying that they are 56% likely to win. If you’re interested in wagering São Paulo, you can get +350 for the underdog.

There are different ways to bet on Fluminense including the Asian Handicap -0.5 market. This option is -123, although São Paulo +0.5 is a viable alternative at -100 and you can cheer on the draw with the latter.

For those expecting a low-scoring contest, Under 2.5 is the market leader on the Total Goals market. The Both Teams to Score market provides some good options, with Yes and No hard to split in terms of odds.

If you head to our recommended sports betting sites, then you can’t go wrong with the hundreds of markets available for each Série A game. Go through the options and choose your football wager.

Full-Time Result

1

-125

X

+250

2

+350

Half-Time Result

1

+143

X

+117

2

+370

Double Chance

1X

-500

12

-345

X2

-106

Draw No Bet

1

-313

2

+205

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.5

-123

2 Hcp +0.5

-100

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-137

Over 2.5

+105

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-115

No

-120

Givanildo Hulk is the favourite to be First Goalscorer at +410. If you’re interested in backing him to find the net at anytime, then the price is +170.

Givanildo Hulk (Fluminense)

First

+410

Anytime

+170

John Kennedy (Fluminense)

First

+420

Anytime

+170

Rodrigo Castillo (Fluminense)

First

+525

Anytime

+220

Kevin Serna (Fluminense)

First

+550

Anytime

+230

Jonathan Calleri (São Paulo)

First

+650

Anytime

+250

Jefferson Savarino (Fluminense)

First

+700

Anytime

+290

Agustín Canobbio (Fluminense)

First

+750

Anytime

+300

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

First

+850

Anytime

+340

Luciano Acosta (Fluminense)

First

+800

Anytime

+350

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

First

+1000

Anytime

+410

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

First

+1200

Anytime

+480

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

First

+1200

Anytime

+480

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

First

+1200

Anytime

+500

Lucca Marques Alencar (São Paulo)

First

+1300

Anytime

+550

Yeferson Soteldo (Fluminense)

First

+1400

Anytime

+600

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

First

+1800

Anytime

+700

Nonato (Fluminense)

First

+1800

Anytime

+700

Guilherme Arana (Fluminense)

First

+1900

Anytime

+800

Hércules Pereira do Nascimento (Fluminense)

First

+2000

Anytime

+850

Facundo Bernal (Fluminense)

First

+2000

Anytime

+850

Ignácio da Silva Oliveira (Fluminense)

First

+2200

Anytime

+950

Ganso (Fluminense)

First

+2200

Anytime

+950

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

First

+2200

Anytime

+950

Givanildo Hulk (Fluminense)

Over 3.5

-115

Under 3.5

-

Rodrigo Castillo (Fluminense)

Over 2.5

-135

Under 2.5

-

Kevin Serna (Fluminense)

Over 2.5

-112

Under 2.5

-

Jefferson Savarino (Fluminense)

Over 2.5

-115

Under 2.5

-

Luciano da Rocha (São Paulo)

Over 2.5

+143

Under 2.5

-

John Kennedy (Fluminense)

Over 2.5

-154

Under 2.5

-

Artur Victor Guimarães (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+107

Under 1.5

-

Guilherme Arana (Fluminense)

Over 1.5

+128

Under 1.5

-

Lucca Marques Alencar (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+150

Under 1.5

-

Aldemir Ferreira (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+130

Under 1.5

-

Gonzalo Tapia (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

+108

Under 1.5

-

André Oliveira Silva (São Paulo)

Over 1.5

-111

Under 1.5

-

Luciano Acosta (Fluminense)

Over 1.5

-132

Under 1.5

-

Agustín Canobbio (Fluminense)

Over 1.5

-179

Under 1.5

-

Yeferson Soteldo (Fluminense)

Over 0.5

-233

Under 0.5

-

Cauly Souza Oliveira (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-159

Under 0.5

-

Nonato (Fluminense)

Over 0.5

-154

Under 0.5

-

Hércules Pereira do Nascimento (Fluminense)

Over 0.5

-204

Under 0.5

-

Facundo Bernal (Fluminense)

Over 0.5

-270

Under 0.5

-

Ignácio da Silva Oliveira (Fluminense)

Over 0.5

+120

Under 0.5

-

Ganso (Fluminense)

Over 0.5

+108

Under 0.5

-

Damián Bobadilla (São Paulo)

Over 0.5

-110

Under 0.5

-

Fluminense vs São Paulo Lineups & Team News

Stay ahead of the game by checking the Fluminense vs São Paulo team news before betting. We’ll bring you the expected and confirmed lineups for Série A along with up-to-date injury news.

Fluminense Team Page São Paulo Team Page

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