Italy vs Turkey Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 05 Oct 2026
Italy vs Turkey Predictions
The betting sites might have been too generous with their odds of -182 when it comes to the BTTS Yes selection. We can’t see any reason why Italy and Turkey won’t find the net.
Continue below for our full Italy vs Turkey betting breakdown, where you can read the complete analysis of our main match prediction, as well as our correct score prediction, player prop picks, corners prediction and bet builder tips.
Italy vs Turkey Preview
Italy welcome Turkey to Stadio Renato Dell'Ara in Bologna, with kick-off set for 14:45 on Monday 5 October.
Italy started their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 home defeat against Belgium before responding with a 4-1 victory away to Turkey. In their last outing, Gli Azzurri earned a 1-1 draw against France at the Stade de France, registering three shots on target and having 35% possession, with Alessandro Bastoni scoring Italy's goal.
Turkey began their Nations League campaign with a narrow 1-0 home defeat against France before being beaten 4-1 by Italy in their second fixture. Last time out, Vincenzo Montella's side suffered another setback, losing 3-0 away to Belgium while registering eight shots on target and having 47% possession.
H2H: Italy Claimed 4-1 Victory a Week Ago
Italy ran out 4-1 winners away to Turkey when the sides met in Bursa just a week ago. Turkey had 53% possession, but Italy registered eight shots on target to the hosts' three, with Alessandro Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Francesco Pio Esposito scoring for the Azzurri. Baris Alper Yilmaz netted Turkey's goal.
| Nations League | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |  Italy |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 4 |  Turkey |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 2:11 | 0 |
6 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw, averaging 2.3 goals from 6.0 shots on goal and 17.0 attempts. Italy have had 52.9% possession, 515.5 passes and 6.1 corners per game. On average, Silvio Baldini's team have conceded 1.8 goals from 4.5 shots on goal and 12.4 attempts, while the opposition have been awarded 4.3 corners.
Top scorer Moise Kean has found the net 5 times, with Francesco Pio Esposito and Mateo Retegui getting 4 and 3 respectively. Leading assistor is Federico Dimarco with 4, while goalkeepers Gianluigi Donnarumma and Guglielmo Vicario have collectively recorded 3 clean sheets.
Turkey have won 4, lost 5 and drawn 1, with an average of 1.0 goals from 17.2 attempts and 4.8 shots on goal. The Crescent-Stars average 54.7% possession, 6.1 corners awarded and 3.9 corners against them, while conceding 1.5 goals from 12.0 attempts and 4.8 shots on goal.
Baris Alper Yilmaz has scored 2 goals, followed by Kaan Ayhan, Arda Guler, Kerem Akturkoglu and Ferdi Kadioglu on 1. Orkun Kokcu has had 3 assists, with Ugurcan Cakir notching 3 clean sheets in the previous 10 games.
Confirmed Lineups
Italy confirmed lineup (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma (GK), Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Matteo Ruggeri, Nicolo Barella, Alessandro Romano, Issa Doumbia, Antonio Vergara, Gianluca Scamacca, Daniel Maldini.
Turkey confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Ugurcan Cakir (GK), Mehmet Zeki Celik, Ozan Kabak, Abdulkerim Bardakci, Ferdi Kadioglu, Salih Ozcan, Ismail Yuksek, Evren Eren Elmali, Irfan Kahveci, Aral Simsir, Yunus Akgun.
Main Match Prediction
Let’s take a chance on the BTTS Yes option when it comes to this Nations League clash. We really like the -182 that is available and feel confident that the teams can both find the net.
Key stats supporting our main match prediction (competitive matches):
The football experts at Sportsgambler.com are aware of injuries that could affect the outcome along with the form guide. We also leave no stone unturned when it comes to presenting the latest Nations League stats.
The latest odds imply that our pick has a 64.5% prospect of winning. Based on our experts research, we calculate the actual probability to be closer to 70%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this wager.
BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 Goals are similar picks and they can be combined together on the Total Goals & Both Teams to Score market. Consider going down this route if you’re looking for slightly bigger odds.
Ready to wager? Discover top betting deals and find the most valuable sportsbook promo codes in our trusted bonus guide filled with perks.
Correct Score Prediction
1
-
1
Turkey
We’ve got a correct score prediction which involves the teams playing out a 1-1 draw. Odds of +850 look appealing and we should get a run for our money here.
Player Prop Picks
Moise Kean (Italy) has totalled over 1.5 shots on goal in back-to-back games. We’re expecting him to produce a high level of performance and cover the Shots on Target line, with odds of -100 on offer.
Baris Alper Yilmaz (Turkey) has racked up two goals in his past five matches. Considering the numbers, we think that odds of +310 offer plenty of appeal when it comes to wagering on Anytime Goalscorer.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Corners Prediction
Turkey have been awarded an average of 6.10 corners in the past 10 games, while the corner count against Italy has been more than 3.5 in the last four matches. There are odds of -119 available when it comes to this Team Corners bet and we think Turkey can cover the line.
Italy
Turkey
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
We’ve got a same-game multi with three options: both teams scoring, Turkey with the +1.25 Asian Handicap along with Turkey to finish with over 3.5 corners.
A bet builder is a great alternative for football punters who want to focus their wagering on a single game. The bookmakers provide this personalised betting facility where you select various picks and the odds are combined.
Italy vs Turkey Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
The latest betting odds suggest that Italy are convincing -278 favourites to claim a victory and that means a 74% probability of coming out on top in this Nations League encounter. If you’re searching for a different slant, outsiders Turkey are available at +650.
For those expecting a high-scoring contest, Over 2.5 Goals is the shortest price. BTTS wagering is popular and you can back Yes at -135 on the Both Teams to Score market.
The best football betting sites cover Nations League games in serious depth and there are hundreds of markets. We recommend scanning through the various bets before picking out the best angle.
Francesco Pio Esposito is available at -105 when it comes to Anytime Goalscorer. The favourite is now priced at odds of +330 to find the net first.
Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.
Italy Stats
Turkey Stats
- 6 wins, 3 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 5 wins, 4 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 home matches
- 4 wins, 5 defeats and 1 draw in the previous 10 matches
- 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 4.10 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 5 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.50 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.50 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 3 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 4.30 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 6.50 corners awarded and 5.00 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 10.40 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 11.50 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 5 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 6.10 corners awarded and 3.90 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 4.50 corners awarded and 3.90 corners against in the last 10 away matches
- An average of 10.00 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 8.40 corners awarded in the last 10 away matches
- Had the most corners in 7 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 4 of the last 10 away matches
- An average of 52.90% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 55.90% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 7 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 8 of the last 10 home matches
Italy vs Turkey Lineups & Team News
Before making your bets, take a look at the Italy vs Turkey team news. Get the predicted and confirmed Nations League lineups plus the latest injury updates from us.
Italy Confirmed Lineup 4-3-3
Turkey Confirmed Lineup 3-4-2-1
Italy Confirmed Lineup 4-3-3
Turkey Confirmed Lineup 3-4-2-1
Italy Substitutes
- 2Michael Kayode
- 5Riccardo Calafiori
- 7Nicolo Cambiaghi
- 8Sandro Tonali
- 9F. Pio Esposito
- 10Nicolo Fagioli
- 12Marco Carnesecchi
- 13Guglielmo Vicario
- 14Samuele Inacio
- 16Davide Frattesi
- 19Giorgio Scalvini
- 20Sebastiano Esposito
Turkey Substitutes
- 3Merih Demiral
- 4Emirhan Topcu
- 6Bartug Elmaz
- 7Kerem Akturkoglu
- 8Demir Tiknaz
- 9Deniz Gul
- 11Ilhan Fakili
- 12Altay Bayindir
- 17Melih Kabasakal
- 18Oguz Aydin
- 22Mustafa Eskihellac
- 23Muhammed Sengezer
Previous Italy Lineups
Previous Turkey Lineups
Italy Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Silvio Baldini
Turkey Player Stats & Squad
Nations League Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:14 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
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