Mexico vs South Africa Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 11 Jun 2026
FIFA World Cup Betting Preview: Mexico vs South Africa
Co-hosts Mexico square off against South Africa in the opening game of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Mexico City Stadium (Estadio Azteca), with kick-off set for 15:00 on Thursday 11 June.
Group A also features South Korea and the Czech Republic. Mexico are clear favourites with the bookmakers to win the group, while South Korea and the Czech Republic are considered the main challengers. South Africa are viewed as the least likely side to progress.
We think Mexico will beat South Africa by two goals or more. This leads us to back the favourites -1.25 on the Asian Handicap at odds of -100, with a one goal victory meaning half the stake refunded.
Javier Aguirre's side have enjoyed a strong build-up to the tournament, recording six wins and two draws from their last eight matches. Mexico have been impressive defensively, keeping six clean sheets during that run, and with attacking threats such as Raúl Jiménez and Julián Quiñones, El Tri should have too much quality for an ordinary South Africa side.
Home advantage could also prove significant. Mexico City sits around 2,200 metres (7,300 feet) above sea level and the altitude is often a factor for visiting teams unfamiliar with such conditions.
Mexico's last competitive match came on 6 July 2025 when they were crowned Gold Cup champions, beating the USA 2-1 in the final at Houston Stadium. El Tri boasted 60% possession and recorded eight shots on target, while Raul Jimenez and Edson Alvarez scored one goal apiece.
Mexico, who qualified automatically as one of the host nations, enter the World Cup on an eight-match unbeaten run after using a series of international friendlies to prepare for the tournament. Across May and June, they beat Ghana 2-0, Australia 1-0 and Serbia 5-1.
The last competitive outing for South Africa ended in a 2-1 defeat to Cameroon in the Africa Cup of Nations Round of 16 on 4 January 2026. Hugo Broos' team boasted 66% possession and had four shots on goal, with Evidence Makgopa on the scoresheet.
As part of their preparations for the tournament, South Africa have played two friendlies in Mexico, recording a goalless draw with Nicaragua and a 1-1 draw against Jamaica.
There was some confusion surrounding the result of the behind-closed-doors friendly against Jamaica on Saturday night. It was initially reported as a 1-0 victory for Bafana Bafana before later being revised to a 1-1 draw.
Head-to-Head Statistics
Mexico and South Africa have not faced each other since the group stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, when they played out a 1-1 draw at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.
| FIFA World Cup | G | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | GD | P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mexico |
3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  South Africa |
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2:3 | 4 |
Mexico have 7 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws, averaging 1.2 goals from 6.0 shots on goal and 13.4 attempts. El Tri have averaged 60.3% possession and 5.4 corners per game, with the opposition getting 0.4 goals from 2.2 shots on goal, 6.9 attempts and 2.6 corners.
Top goalscorers Raul Jimenez and Cesar Montes have found the net 3 times, with Edson Alvarez scoring 2. Leading assistor is Orbelin Pineda with 2, while goalie Julio Gonzalez has recorded 2 clean sheets.
South Africa have won 2 and lost 2, averaging 5.8 shots on goal, 15.0 attempts and 1.5 goals. Bafana Bafana average 63.3% possession, 500.5 passes, 4.3 corners awarded and 4.8 corners against, while 1.5 goals have been conceded from 9.5 attempts and 3.5 shots on goal.
Lyle Foster and Oswin Appollis have top scored with 2 goals, while Evidence Makgopa is next on 1. Lyle Foster has been the top assist maker with 2 in the last 4 games.
Confirmed Lineups
Mexico confirmed lineup (4-1-4-1): Jose Rangel (GK), Israel Reyes, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Jesus Gallardo, Erik Lira, Roberto Alvarado, Brian Gutierrez, Alvaro Fidalgo, Julian Quinones, Raul Jimenez.
South Africa confirmed lineup (5-3-2): Ronwen Williams (GK), Nkosinathi Sibisi, Ime Okon, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Khuliso Mudau, Aubrey Maphosa Modiba, Teboho Mokoena, Sphephelo Sithole, Jayden Adams, Iqraam Rayners, Lyle Foster.
Mexico vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Tips
Our Mexico vs South Africa betting tips include the main match prediction, a correct score forecast, bet builder advice and top player prop picks. Each section below offers expert insight into the key betting angles.
Match Prediction
It makes sense to back Mexico -1.25 at -100. The hosts are capable of winning this Group A clash by two goals or more, with both the stats and circumstances pointing towards a comfortable victory.
Our World Cup experts like to go through the form guide, with injuries and suspensions also having a bearing on the match. Before making our football predictions, we combine this information with the latest numbers.
Key Mexico vs South Africa stats:
The top bookmakers are estimating that there is a 50% likelihood of this pick landing a return. Our football analysts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. This bet can therefore be backed with confidence.
The betting sites give you the chance to buy or sell goals, meaning that you can select from a variety of lines. Buying means shorter prices, with selling sending the odds upwards.
Correct Score Prediction
2
-
0
South Africa
There could be merit in backing Mexico to win 2-0. Odds of +440 are available about a correct score bet where a nice potential return is on the cards.
Player Prop Picks
Brian Gutierrez (Mexico) is available at -164 to register a minimum of one shot on goal. It’s difficult to pass up such an appealing price for this Shots on Target pick and we’ll have a play.
Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) can be wagered to be among the goals at +128. We’ll take a chance with this Anytime Goalscorer wager as the betting odds look really appealing.
Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Bet Builder Tips
Our same-game multi is packed with these picks: Mexico with the -1.25 Asian Handicap, no more than two goals together with Raúl Jiménez (Mexico) to score.
Placing a bet builder means you can have various selections for one football match. You’re able to scan through each market and pick out the selections that make the most appeal. The odds for each pick are multiplied together.
Mexico vs South Africa Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Mexico are overwhelming -250 favourites to win this World Cup clash based on the latest betting odds. The bookmakers afford them a 71% probability of claiming the spoils. South Africa are trading at a much larger price than their opponents and the outsiders can be backed at +750.
If you want to back the favourites to be ahead by the break, then Mexico are -103 on the Half-Time Result market. Alternatively, South Africa are +650 and the draw is priced at +125.
Under 2.5 Goals is operating at the shortest price for those anticipating two or less goals. The Both Teams to Score No option is -208 if you think at least one side will fail to score.
No matter what World Cup game is taking place, you will find hundreds of markets being offered. Peruse the various choices that are presented at the best football betting sites.
There’s the chance to back Raúl Jiménez at +320 to be the First Goalscorer, with the favourite on this market available at similar odds to find the net last.
Latest competitive match stats. Full Time Result and Goals.
Mexico Stats
South Africa Stats
- 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 7 wins, 1 defeat and 2 draws in the previous 10 home matches
- 5 wins, 3 defeats and 2 draws in the previous 10 matches
- 5 wins, 2 defeats and 3 draws in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded in the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.60 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.70 goals per game in the previous 10 home matches
- BTTS Yes in 2 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 1 of the previous 10 home matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 2 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 2 of the previous 10 home matches
- An average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded in the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 2.50 goals per game in the previous 10 matches
- An average of 3.00 goals per game in the previous 10 away matches
- BTTS Yes in 4 of the previous 10 matches
- BTTS Yes in 5 of the previous 10 away matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 6 of the previous 10 matches
- Over 2.5 Goals in 3 of the previous 10 away matches
- An average of 5.40 corners awarded and 2.60 corners conceded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 4.70 corners awarded and 3.30 corners against in the last 10 home matches
- An average of 8.00 corners awarded in the last 10 matches
- An average of 8.00 corners awarded in the last 10 home matches
- Had the most corners in 8 and least corners in 1 of the last 10 matches
- Had the most corners in 6 and least corners in 3 of the last 10 home matches
- An average of 4.25 corners awarded and 4.75 corners conceded in the last 4 matches
- An average of 4.67 corners awarded and 4.00 corners against in the last 3 away matches
- An average of 9.00 corners awarded in the last 4 matches
- An average of 8.67 corners awarded in the last 3 away matches
- Had the most corners in 2 and least corners in 1 of the last 4 matches
- Had the most corners in 1 and least corners in 1 of the last 3 away matches
- An average of 60.30% possession in the last 10 matches
- An average of 60.30% possession in the last 10 home matches
- Most possession in 10 of the last 10 matches
- Most possession in 10 of the last 10 home matches
Mexico vs South Africa Lineups & Team News
Always review the Mexico vs South Africa team news before locking in your bets. Stay in the know with our predicted and confirmed World Cup lineups and the latest on injuries.
Mexico Confirmed Lineup 4-1-4-1
South Africa Confirmed Lineup 5-3-2
Mexico Confirmed Lineup 4-1-4-1
South Africa Confirmed Lineup 5-3-2
Mexico Substitutes
- 2Jorge Sanchez
- 4Edson Alvarez
- 7Luis Romo
- 10Alexis Vega
- 11Santiago Gimenez
- 12Carlos Acevedo
- 13Guillermo Ochoa
- 14Armando Gonzalez
- 17Orbelin Pineda
- 18Obed Vargas
- 19Gilberto Mora
- 20Mateo Chavez
- 21Cesar Huerta
- 22Guillermo Martinez
- 24Luis Chavez
South Africa Substitutes
- 2Thabang Matuludi
- 3Khulumani Ndamane
- 5Thalente Mbatha
- 7Oswin Appollis
- 8Tshepang Moremi
- 10Relebohile Mofokeng
- 11Themba Zwane
- 12Thapelo Maseko
- 16Sipho Chaine
- 17Evidence Makgopa
- 18Samukelo Kabini
- 22Ricardo Goss
- 24Olwethu Makhanya
- 25Kamogelo Sebelebele
- 26Bradley Cross
Previous Mexico Lineups
Previous South Africa Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions
Mexico Player Stats & Squad
Manager: Javier Aguirre
South Africa Player Stats & Squad
World Cup Table| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 3 | South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:6 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia and H. | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:10 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:1 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:8 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 4 |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | 3 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:4 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 4 | Curacao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7:3 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:7 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:12 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:2 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:10 | 1 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:0 | 7 |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 2 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:12 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Austria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:6 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 4 | Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:8 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:1 | 5 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
| # | Team | G | W | D | L | +/- | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:4 | 0 |
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