Middlesbrough vs Southampton Prediction, Betting Tips, Lineups & Odds | 09 May 2026

Championship Play-Offs Betting Preview: Middlesbrough vs Southampton

Fifth-placed Middlesbrough clash with fourth-placed Southampton in the first leg of this play-off semi-final at Riverside Stadium, with kick-off set for 07:30 on Saturday 9 May.

Southampton have come into form at the right stage of the season and are now unbeaten in their last 19 Championship matches, with eight wins in their last ten. Meanwhile, Middlesbrough have failed to win six of their last eight home games.

Considering the recent form, xG data and the injury situation, with Boro missing Championship Player of the Season Hayden Hackney, we’re siding with the visitors. The main concern for our bet is that Middlesbrough won the last head-to-head meeting at the Riverside 4-0, but that came back in January when Boro were in strong form and the Saints were struggling.

We’re backing Southampton +0.25 on the Asian Handicap. This means our stake is split between 0 and +0.5, with half a win if the game ends in a draw and a full payout at -125 if the Saints claim victory.

Middlesbrough played out a 2-2 draw away at The Racecourse against Wrexham last time out. The Teesside outfit enjoyed 52% possession and five shots on target, with Tommy Conway and David Strelec scoring one goal apiece.

Southampton have won four consecutive away matches, most recently beating Preston North End 3-1 at Deepdale, a result that saw them finish above Middlesbrough on goal difference. Tonda Eckert's team boasted 54% possession and recorded five shots on goal, while Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Ross Stewart and Cyle Larin were all on target.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in the past four games against Southampton. In their last clash, Middlesbrough came out with a 4-0 home win at Riverside Stadium. The past 4 H2H meetings have featured two Middlesbrough wins and two draws.

Championship		G	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	GD	P
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82	56	26	82:56	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72	47	25	72:47	80

View Full Table

2 wins, 3 losses and 5 draws, averaging 1.4 goals from 6.1 shots on goal and 20.7 attempts. Kim Hellberg's Middlesbrough have had 63.1% possession and 9.2 corners per game. On average, their opponents have scored 1.2 goals from 3.0 shots on goal and 9.7 attempts, while being awarded 3.5 corners.

Top goalscorer is Tommy Conway on 5 goals, while David Strelec and Morgan Whittaker have both bagged 3. Alan Browne has recorded the most assists with 2.

Southampton have 8 victories and 2 draws, with an average of 13.5 attempts, 5.3 shots on goal and 2.4 goals. The South Coast side average 53.6% possession, 6.2 corners awarded and 5.3 corners against them, while 0.9 goals have been conceded from 4.3 shots on goal and 11.3 attempts.

Cyle Larin has landed 6 goals, Ross Stewart 3, with Taylor Harwood-Bellis and two others scoring 2. Cameron Archer and Ryan Manning are the top assist makers with 3 in the previous 10 games.

Confirmed Lineups

Middlesbrough confirmed lineup (3-4-2-1): Solomon Brynn (GK), Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, Adilson Malanda, Callum Brittain, Aidan Morris, Riley McGree, Matt Targett, Morgan Whittaker, Tommy Conway, David Strelec.

Southampton confirmed lineup (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz (GK), James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood, Ryan Manning, Caspar Jander, Flynn Downes, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz, Leo Scienza, Cyle Larin.

Middlesbrough vs Southampton Prediction & Betting Tips

Tackle Middlesbrough vs Southampton with all the betting insight you need, including our match prediction, scoreline forecast, corners market advice, key player prop selections and a hand-picked bet builder.

Match Prediction

Southampton +0.25 at -125 have the look of a value bet on the Asian Handicap. We give the away team a good chance of landing a victory in this Championship play-off clash and it’s therefore a pick we’ll back with confidence.

When it comes to making our expert football predictions, it’s important to study team news and observe the latest form. There are lots of Championship stats that can also help to shape our picks.

Key Middlesbrough vs Southampton league stats:

• The +0.25 line has been covered by Southampton in 19 consecutive games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Middlesbrough in 8 of their last 10 games.
• The -0.25 line hasn’t been covered by Middlesbrough in 3 of their last 5 games.

According to the latest betting odds, our pick has a 55.6% chance of winning. After careful examination, our experts have this probability somewhere between 60-65%. This is why we can recommend this bet.

There’s the option to move the line for your pick and this enables bettors to get larger prices. If you’re prepared for additional risk, you can get more bang for your buck.

Stop! Before you bet, grab a top welcome bonus. Check out our guide for the latest betting offers available now.

Our Match Prediction

Southampton Asian Hcp +0.25 @ -125 Bet Now

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Disclosure: This preview contains affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. T&Cs apply. We only recommend licensed and regulated operators. See our Editorial Policy. Pick odds and lines reflect the price available at the time of publication (May 7, 13:57). Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Correct Score Prediction

Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Southampton

There’s plenty of juice to be found by backing the Saints to win 1-0. We can’t pass up the odds of +700 when it comes to correct score betting and it’s a fun wager.

Player Prop Picks

Top Pick: Cyle Larin to Score +300

Cyle Larin (Southampton) has racked up four goals in his past five Championship games. We believe this is the best of the player props, with a healthy +300 available when it comes to betting him to score at any time.

Latest Cyle Larin Player Prop Odds

Goalscorer

Anytime

+280

First

+750

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Corners Prediction

Southampton Over 3.5 Corners -154

The 3.5 corners line has been covered by Southampton in ten consecutive matches. Our verdict is that there’s value when it comes the Southampton Team Corners line being covered, with odds of -154 available.

League Games

League Games

Last 10 Total For Against

Last 10 at Home Total For Against

Last 10 Away Total For Against

Middlesbrough

Total

12.70 9.20 3.50

Home

12.90 9.30 3.60

Away

9.80 5.20 4.60

Southampton

Total

11.50 6.20 5.30

Home

10.50 5.60 4.90

Away

11.40 5.80 5.60

Latest Corner Odds

Total Corners

Over 10.5

-102

Under 10.5

-139

Middlesbrough Corners

Over 5.5

-115

Under 5.5

-123

Southampton Corners

Over 4.5

-102

Under 4.5

-139

Most Corners

1

-156

X

+650

2

+155

Pick odds and lines correct at publication. Live market odds are updated regularly and may differ. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.

Middlesbrough vs Southampton Odds

The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.

With an approximate 44% chance of succeeding, the bookies are being cautious with their +128 betting odds for Middlesbrough triumphing in this Championship encounter. The +205 means that Southampton are seen as having the lowest probability of succeeding.

The Draw No Bet market simplifies things as it offers two options and money back if the game finishes level. Middlesbrough are -161, while Southampton are alternatively priced at +114.

If you’re wagering on Total Goals, the market is far from clear over whether Unders or Overs happens. Punters expecting both teams to find the net can get -147 when it comes to BTTS Yes.

You’ll be blown away by the hundreds of markets available for Championship matches. Head to the best betting sites and take your pick from the various football options available.

Full-Time Result

1

+128

X

+235

2

+205

Half-Time Result

1

+188

X

+116

2

+250

Double Chance

1X

-294

12

-333

X2

-172

Draw No Bet

1

-161

2

+114

Asian Handicap

1 Hcp -0.25

-105

2 Hcp +0.25

-122

Total Goals

Under 2.5

-120

Over 2.5

-111

Both Teams to Score

Yes

-147

No

+106

Favourite Tommy Conway is now available at +400 to be the First Goalscorer. You will find similar odds apply when it comes to him scoring the last goal.

Tommy Conway (Middlesbrough)

First

+400

Anytime

+155

Morgan Whittaker (Middlesbrough)

First

+500

Anytime

+190

Leo Scienza (Southampton)

First

+650

Anytime

+250

David Strelec (Middlesbrough)

First

+700

Anytime

+270

Hayden Hackney (Middlesbrough)

First

+700

Anytime

+280

Cyle Larin (Southampton)

First

+750

Anytime

+280

Ross Cameron Stewart (Southampton)

First

+800

Anytime

+320

Finn Azaz (Southampton)

First

+850

Anytime

+320

Cameron Archer (Southampton)

First

+950

Anytime

+360

Jeremy Sarmiento (Middlesbrough)

First

+1000

Anytime

+390

Leo Castledine (Middlesbrough)

First

+1000

Anytime

+440

Sontje Hansen (Middlesbrough)

First

+1150

Anytime

+450

Samuel Silvera (Middlesbrough)

First

+1100

Anytime

+450

Riley McGree (Middlesbrough)

First

+1050

Anytime

+475

Micah Hamilton (Middlesbrough)

First

+1200

Anytime

+525

Tom Fellows (Southampton)

First

+1400

Anytime

+540

Alex Gilbert (Middlesbrough)

First

+1400

Anytime

+550

Ryan Manning (Southampton)

First

+1600

Anytime

+600

Matt Targett (Middlesbrough)

First

+1700

Anytime

+650

Alan Browne (Middlesbrough)

First

+1700

Anytime

+700

Shea Charles (Southampton)

First

+1800

Anytime

+700

Caspar Jander (Southampton)

First

+2200

Anytime

+800

Mads Roerslev Rasmussen (Southampton)

First

+2200

Anytime

+900

Aidan Morris (Middlesbrough)

First

+2200

Anytime

+900

Stats: Championship matches only
Middlesbrough have clocked up four wins, three draws and three defeats in the past 10 home games, recording an average of 1.40 goals per match and conceding 0.70.

Southampton have avoided defeat in their last nine away matches. The South Coast team have picked up seven wins, two draws and one defeat in the past 10 away games, recording an average of 2.30 goals per match and conceding 1.40.

When the teams previously met at Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough defeated Southampton 4-0.

Last 10 League Games		W-D-L	G	GF	GA	O2.5	U2.5	B-Y	B-No
Middlesbrough Home Stats		4-3-3	2.10	1.40	0.70	3	7	4	6
Southampton Away Stats		7-2-1	3.70	2.30	1.40	7	3	8	2

• W-D-L = Wins-Draws-Losses
• G = Avg. Goals
• GF = Avg. Goals For
• GA = Avg. Goals Against
• O2.5 = Matches Over 2.5 Goals
• U2.5 = Matches Under 2.5 Goals
• B-Y = Matches BTTS Yes
• B-No = Matches BTTS No

Middlesbrough vs Southampton Lineups & Team News

The latest Middlesbrough vs Southampton team news could impact your bets — review it first. We’ll provide the predicted and confirmed lineups for the Championship along with up-to-date injury news.

Middlesbrough Team Page Southampton Team Page

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